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BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby mattb47 » Mon Aug 03, 2009 7:08 pm

eagles21 wrote:Where's David Garrard? Dude didn't have an o-line or WR's last year and he was still #9 in fantasy points for QB's. :-?


He also passed 200 more times than he did the season before and is unlikely to come anywhere near those attempts again...also throw in that he averaged fewer than 1 TD per game despite throwing it over 33 times per game and that his TD/INT ratio was nearly 1:1 and he's not really all the enticing. What Garrard was doing obviously wasn't helping the Jags win so if you think they'll be having that kind of offense again, you're kidding yourself.

Last season: 16 turnovers for Garrard
Previous 4 seasons (30 games): 18 turnovers
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby BGbootha » Mon Aug 03, 2009 7:14 pm

2 Rodgers, Aaron QB GB
Alright this is one that others don't like here, and let me explain my reasoning...This guy finished last season with the second most fantasy points (in my main money league settings). 4,000 yards passing, 28TDs and 13 INT. Now yes Rodgers had some horrible games mixed in there, but he had some really good games as well. Going into his second season as the starter in Green Bay and his first season without Bret drama. With everything set up, give me one reason why you would expect his numbers to decline?? Because in order to have him not in this spot, you are saying his numbers will be declining. I see solid output.

4 Rivers, Philip QB SD
I have to admit the more i read arguments on Rivers, the more likely he is to move down my board in the coming weeks.

6 Brady, Tom QB NE
Honestly, the injury scares me. He won't be as mobile. Yes he has weapons in a pass friendly offense and a history that is hard to argue with.

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On a side note, not that I think it makes a difference, but the fact remains, I will more than likely not end up with one of my own top 6-7 QBs on any of my teams. I think there is WAY more value in the Carson Palmer / Matt Hasselbeck in the 8th round rather than a Brees / Brady / Rodgers in the first 4 rounds.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Azrael » Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:15 pm

biju wrote:
Azrael wrote:
biju wrote:
Aaron Rodgers


What is "too high" for Aaron Rodgers and why do you think he's too high. What are the red flags with him? He seemed pretty consistent last year and his offense and coaches are in tact. I'm not sure how the guy can be much lower than the 5th QB off the board.


Well, a top 5 pick alone shouldn't have one quarter of their games with under 186 yds and a total of 4 TDs and 3 INTs in those four games. The only other QB ranked high that did this was Philip Rivers (who ended his four game stretch with 2 TDs and 4 INTs instead).

Given the running problems GB had last year and the fact that they were behind in all those games makes me wonder exactly how much his stats should decline this year. Given a decline in stats and the inconsistency Rodgers has, I don't see him being anything higher than about 7th or 8th.

I know that I'm not going to be the guy with Rodgers on my roster this year, that's for sure. I can see him being a value play in 2010 after a lot of people get burned this year, but not this year for me.


Hmm, I think you're grabbing at straws here. In the 4 games you pointed out Rodgers scored 20 (Week 1), 18 (Week 3), 11 (Week 7), 5 (Week 10). I count 2 bad games there. Even Brees had a couple bad games last year (Week 2 was an 8 pointer and Week 7 a 7 pointer). Tony Romo had 3 games with 7 points or less.

All QBs have off games now and then. Show me 5 guys in a year that throw for 4,000 yards and 28TDs. I mean, if you are taking Rodgers out of the top 5 who are you replacing him with? Brees and Brady are given 1 and 2. I'll give Manning too at 3 and he had 4 off games himself last year. Romo (lost TO)and Warner (old and historically fragile) can be arguments but not stamped givens.

The more you look at it I think it's objectively difficult to shoo Rodgers out of a top 5 ranking.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby eagles21 » Mon Aug 03, 2009 9:57 pm

mattb47 wrote:
eagles21 wrote:Where's David Garrard? Dude didn't have an o-line or WR's last year and he was still #9 in fantasy points for QB's. :-?


He also passed 200 more times than he did the season before and is unlikely to come anywhere near those attempts again...also throw in that he averaged fewer than 1 TD per game despite throwing it over 33 times per game and that his TD/INT ratio was nearly 1:1 and he's not really all the enticing. What Garrard was doing obviously wasn't helping the Jags win so if you think they'll be having that kind of offense again, you're kidding yourself.

Last season: 16 turnovers for Garrard
Previous 4 seasons (30 games): 18 turnovers


Well, first of all, my point in this wasn't saying that Garrard would put up the same numbers he put up last season. I wanted to know why he wasn't in BG's Top 20. I don't understand how guys like Shaun Hill or Marc Bulger could possibly put up better numbers then Garrard this year.

Now that we're on the topic though, yes, I do think Garrard could be a top 10 QB this year. First of all, the fact that the o-line will be healthier then it was last year is a sign for me that they might actually give Garrard some time in the pocket and the offense might actually have the ability to move the ball. I think they have a lot of talent at WR too, so Garrard should have some options in the passing game.

You are right Matt, the only reason that Garrard put up decent numbers last year was because he had so many attempts. They needed to pass a lot since they were always playing from behind. Well, with Garrard being comfortable in the pocket combined with the defense stepping up, he could easily put up the same or better numbers then he did last year, even with 200 less attempts. Just my opinion, I guess we'll have to wait and see. :-)
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby mattb47 » Mon Aug 03, 2009 10:38 pm

We'll see...it's quite obvious in watching him that he is a mediocre passer overall...he has reasonable accuracy but fails to really be a "playmaker" on a consistent basis and that's evidenced by his low TD output. His career high TD total is 18...to me, he really has severely limited upside and just a slightly higher floor than some of the other QBs in the range he's being taken in. I don't see him getting above 20 TDs this season and I think we'll see double digit INTs again which likely will not equal top 10 caliber numbers.

He was 11th last season and just 15th in points per game. Even 2 seasons ago when he had a great TD/INT count of 18/3, he still barely squeaked into the top 10 in points per game. I just don't see the upside with him.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Azrael » Mon Aug 03, 2009 11:03 pm

BGbootha wrote:
6 Brady, Tom QB NE
Honestly, the injury scares me. He won't be as mobile. Yes he has weapons in a pass friendly offense and a history that is hard to argue with.



Carson Palmer...suffered the same injury in January 2006. Look at his 2006 season stats. I'm not worried about Brady, but I hope others are.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby mrblitz » Tue Aug 04, 2009 6:28 am

First of all there is no such thing about being "wrong" with your rankings. No one is completely right. GreAt job with your list. I personally love that you have mcnabb over Brady. I definitely agree with that.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby eagles21 » Tue Aug 04, 2009 3:11 pm

mattb47 wrote:We'll see...it's quite obvious in watching him that he is a mediocre passer overall...he has reasonable accuracy but fails to really be a "playmaker" on a consistent basis and that's evidenced by his low TD output. His career high TD total is 18...to me, he really has severely limited upside and just a slightly higher floor than some of the other QBs in the range he's being taken in. I don't see him getting above 20 TDs this season and I think we'll see double digit INTs again which likely will not equal top 10 caliber numbers.

He was 11th last season and just 15th in points per game. Even 2 seasons ago when he had a great TD/INT count of 18/3, he still barely squeaked into the top 10 in points per game. I just don't see the upside with him.


It's more of a gut feeling to me. What I posted probably doesn't seem like much, but I honestly don't think the Jaguars can be nearly as bad as they were last year.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue Aug 04, 2009 3:18 pm

eagles21 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:We'll see...it's quite obvious in watching him that he is a mediocre passer overall...he has reasonable accuracy but fails to really be a "playmaker" on a consistent basis and that's evidenced by his low TD output. His career high TD total is 18...to me, he really has severely limited upside and just a slightly higher floor than some of the other QBs in the range he's being taken in. I don't see him getting above 20 TDs this season and I think we'll see double digit INTs again which likely will not equal top 10 caliber numbers.

He was 11th last season and just 15th in points per game. Even 2 seasons ago when he had a great TD/INT count of 18/3, he still barely squeaked into the top 10 in points per game. I just don't see the upside with him.


It's more of a gut feeling to me. What I posted probably doesn't seem like much, but I honestly don't think the Jaguars can be nearly as bad as they were last year.
\

IMO the better the Jags are, the worse Garrards fantasy stats are going to be. if they can play good D and get leads they'll run, run, run with that revamped O-line and it'll be back to Garrard throwing 150 yds with a TD each week
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby eagles21 » Tue Aug 04, 2009 3:36 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:
eagles21 wrote:
mattb47 wrote:We'll see...it's quite obvious in watching him that he is a mediocre passer overall...he has reasonable accuracy but fails to really be a "playmaker" on a consistent basis and that's evidenced by his low TD output. His career high TD total is 18...to me, he really has severely limited upside and just a slightly higher floor than some of the other QBs in the range he's being taken in. I don't see him getting above 20 TDs this season and I think we'll see double digit INTs again which likely will not equal top 10 caliber numbers.

He was 11th last season and just 15th in points per game. Even 2 seasons ago when he had a great TD/INT count of 18/3, he still barely squeaked into the top 10 in points per game. I just don't see the upside with him.


It's more of a gut feeling to me. What I posted probably doesn't seem like much, but I honestly don't think the Jaguars can be nearly as bad as they were last year.
\

IMO the better the Jags are, the worse Garrards fantasy stats are going to be. if they can play good D and get leads they'll run, run, run with that revamped O-line and it'll be back to Garrard throwing 150 yds with a TD each week


To me, having an offensive line + an improvement to the god-awful receiving corps they had last year has to help his stats, along with improving the Jaguars team as a whole.
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