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BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby mattb47 » Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:10 pm

2ksports wrote:my bad I didn't evaluate that entire division yet... that list was still in progress, I forgot drew brees too and realized and added in.

QBs

Tom Brady, Manning, Rivers, Romo, Drew Brees, Warner

Trent Edwards, Carson Palmer, McNabb, Cutler, Rodgers,

Schaub, Cassel, Hasselbeck, Ryan

Chad Pennington, Joe Flacco, Brady Quinn, Ben Roethlisberger, K.Collins, Garrard, Russell, E. Manning, J. Campbell, Culpepper, Rosenfels

Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, K. Orton, Thigpen, Stafford, Leinart


I think your tiers are pretty messed up to be honest...there's NO WAY I would put guys like Rivers and Romo on the same tier as QBs like Brees, Manning, and Brady...they're just on a different level from year to year. You really think Romo is a tier 1 QB without TO? I sure don't think so...to be honest, he's near the bottom of my 2nd tier if he even makes that one.

Edwards is a HUGE stretch, Buffalo is a very run first team and the addition of TO doesn't change that. He might put up moderately good numbers but he's not top 10 and certainly not in the same conversation as players like McNabb and Rodgers. I think Palmer is too high as well...Housh was his best WR and he's looked downright awful for 2 seasons now, injuries or not he hasn't been the same QB.

Cassel on the same tier as Hasselbeck, Ryan, and Schaub? Cassel was bailed out last year by having exceptional talent at WR and a fantastic receiving RB in Faulk...if you ever watched him throw balls downfield you would have seen that he was AT BEST mediocre at it. His big plays and big games came from just getting the ball into the hands of Welker or Moss or someone else and them making something out of it. I have him pegged as a monumental bust in KC. I think Schaub and Ryan should be bumped up a tier.

You've also got Orton way too low...he'll be throwing it plenty this season and he's at the very least a solid and accurate QB so he'll put up far better numbers than what you're giving him credit for. Just look at what he was able to do on one of the least QB friendly situations stat wise last season. Nothing earth shattering but he's got better targets and he'll attempt more passes in Denver.

Overall it looks like you are putting too much faith in some QBs who are on run heavy teams and won't get the same opportunities for big numbers that some of the others will. Guys like Brees, Manning, Brady, Rodgers, McNabb, and Warner are primarily rated highly fantasy wise because they will simply throw more passes than most of the other QBs out there and can put up good numbers doing it. Players like Rivers and Edwards are guys who really will be hard pressed to even approach 500 attempts (probably more in the mid 400's) and so they just don't have the opportunity to put up as big of numbers. If you're expecting Rivers to do what he did last year on those limited attempts, you're going to be sorely disappointed.

I'd probably put them in tiers like this for now:

Tier 1 - Brees, Manning, Brady
Tier 2 - Rodgers, Warner, McNabb
Tier 3 - Ryan, Romo, Schaub, Rivers
Tier 4 - Cutler, Hasselbeck, Roethlisberger, Palmer
Tier 5 - Orton, Edwards, Garrard
Tier 6 - Manning, Cassel, Delhomme, Hill, Pennington, Campbell
Tier 7 - Flacco, Culpepper, Rosenfels/Jackson, Quinn, Bulger, McCown/Leftwich
Tier 8 - Sanchez, Russell, Collins
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby BGbootha » Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:18 pm

joejlitz wrote:
2ksports wrote:my bad I didn't evaluate that entire division yet... that list was still in progress, I forgot drew brees too and realized and added in.

QBs

Tom Brady, Manning, Rivers, Romo, Drew Brees, Warner

Trent Edwards, Carson Palmer, McNabb, Cutler, Rodgers,

Schaub, Cassel, Hasselbeck, Ryan

Chad Pennington, Joe Flacco, Brady Quinn, Ben Roethlisberger, K.Collins, Garrard, Russell, E. Manning, J. Campbell, Culpepper, Rosenfels

Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, K. Orton, Thigpen, Stafford, Leinart

With apologies to BGBoothA for hijacking his thread. ;-) }:-) :-b

}:-) }:-) }:-) }:-)

No Worries, just trying to strike up conversation about QB rankings. And it worked.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:17 pm

Another guy I'm seeing underrated all over the place is Kyle Orton.

This is a guy who was a fantasy QB1 early in the season in Chicago with a below average set of skill position players there. I don't think he is all that talented, but he is already penciled in as regular season starter in Denver.

We're talking about a guy has one of the top young talents in the game in Eddie Royal (100 reception, YAC potential), one of the best athletes in Marshall (100 reception, YAC potential) and a gift pass-catching TE with injury problems in Scheffler. The weapons speak for themselves, but if you dig a little deeper you become more optimistic. Orton's one knock is the long ball, but his targets are all high reception/YAC guys. McDaniels is implementing a Patriot-esque "spread" system with 1 RB backfield that emphasizes quick throws. Denver took Moreno #1 overall because he is the most complete all around RB in this class. The want a guy back there that can block and catch basically. And it makes sense considering the Denver front 7 is widely considered to be the worst in the entire NFL right now. They want to keep those guys off the field and they want to utilize those pass catchers. We're looking at 600 pass attempts virtually guaranteed for the Denver starter and it looks like Orton is the guy barring injury.

Even the backup RBs have been showing shades of Kevin Faulk in this offense. Lamont Jordan has been running with the 1s and he has a history of catching a lot of passes in the right system. And even still, Correll Buckhalter of all guys has been being used as a receiver out of the backfield with regularity.

1. Bad defense
2. Good Targets
3. Favorable Scheme
4. Good division
5. Secure starting spot

Why does this guy go QB18 or QB20 in most drafts? I have him as one of the first QB2s to go off the board. This guy could potentially put up a Kurt Warner-esque performance in 2009 (and still only win 4 or 5 games).
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby 2ksports » Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:25 pm

mattb47 wrote:
2ksports wrote:my bad I didn't evaluate that entire division yet... that list was still in progress, I forgot drew brees too and realized and added in.

QBs

Tom Brady, Manning, Rivers, Romo, Drew Brees, Warner

Trent Edwards, Carson Palmer, McNabb, Cutler, Rodgers,

Schaub, Cassel, Hasselbeck, Ryan

Chad Pennington, Joe Flacco, Brady Quinn, Ben Roethlisberger, K.Collins, Garrard, Russell, E. Manning, J. Campbell, Culpepper, Rosenfels

Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, K. Orton, Thigpen, Stafford, Leinart


I think your tiers are pretty messed up to be honest...there's NO WAY I would put guys like Rivers and Romo on the same tier as QBs like Brees, Manning, and Brady...they're just on a different level from year to year. You really think Romo is a tier 1 QB without TO? I sure don't think so...to be honest, he's near the bottom of my 2nd tier if he even makes that one.

Edwards is a HUGE stretch, Buffalo is a very run first team and the addition of TO doesn't change that. He might put up moderately good numbers but he's not top 10 and certainly not in the same conversation as players like McNabb and Rodgers. I think Palmer is too high as well...Housh was his best WR and he's looked downright awful for 2 seasons now, injuries or not he hasn't been the same QB.

Cassel on the same tier as Hasselbeck, Ryan, and Schaub? Cassel was bailed out last year by having exceptional talent at WR and a fantastic receiving RB in Faulk...if you ever watched him throw balls downfield you would have seen that he was AT BEST mediocre at it. His big plays and big games came from just getting the ball into the hands of Welker or Moss or someone else and them making something out of it. I have him pegged as a monumental bust in KC. I think Schaub and Ryan should be bumped up a tier.

You've also got Orton way too low...he'll be throwing it plenty this season and he's at the very least a solid and accurate QB so he'll put up far better numbers than what you're giving him credit for. Just look at what he was able to do on one of the least QB friendly situations stat wise last season. Nothing earth shattering but he's got better targets and he'll attempt more passes in Denver.

Overall it looks like you are putting too much faith in some QBs who are on run heavy teams and won't get the same opportunities for big numbers that some of the others will. Guys like Brees, Manning, Brady, Rodgers, McNabb, and Warner are primarily rated highly fantasy wise because they will simply throw more passes than most of the other QBs out there and can put up good numbers doing it. Players like Rivers and Edwards are guys who really will be hard pressed to even approach 500 attempts (probably more in the mid 400's) and so they just don't have the opportunity to put up as big of numbers. If you're expecting Rivers to do what he did last year on those limited attempts, you're going to be sorely disappointed.

I'd probably put them in tiers like this for now:

Tier 1 - Brees, Manning, Brady
Tier 2 - Rodgers, Warner, McNabb
Tier 3 - Ryan, Romo, Schaub, Rivers
Tier 4 - Cutler, Hasselbeck, Roethlisberger, Palmer
Tier 5 - Orton, Edwards, Garrard
Tier 6 - Manning, Cassel, Delhomme, Hill, Pennington, Campbell
Tier 7 - Flacco, Culpepper, Rosenfels/Jackson, Quinn, Bulger, McCown/Leftwich
Tier 8 - Sanchez, Russell, Collins


Romo - I do think he'll be fine without T.O. since he broke up with Jessica Simpson. Also his attempts are around 550.

Edwards - I feel like double standard going on. You feel like T.O.'s absence will negatively affect Romo, but he won't give a boost to Edwards. How about the hurry-up offense, how about the solid O-line, and how about Lee Evans as your 2nd best receiver on the team? I am loving Edwards this year.

I feel like Brees is in a tier of his own actually, don't know why I put him in with the rest, but Brady, Manning, Warner, Romo, Rivers belong in the same tier imho.

I believe Philip Rivers is the weakest of the tier, but he is playing against some of the worst defenses I've ever seen in the NFL. Therefore I do feel like he can put up better #s than last year b/c most of those defenses are weaksauce. Also Rivers is super accurate with a strong arm, a prototypical QB.

I like Cassell again b/c he is playing vs bad defenses and they will be a primarily passing offense. The opportunity is there, and I'm pretty sure he'll be better than Ryan, who is playing against some of the tougher Eastern opponents.

I agree, Orton is too low, I did not put any thought into where he went tbh... I just didn't like him and never planned on drafting him.

I feel like Carson Palmer has the opportunity to throw for a lot of yards this year as they will require him to b/c of bad defense. In addition, he's a smart QB, accurate, strong arm.

Regarding your tiers, I see your points, but I disagree with:
Ryan - I don't think he's Romo-level yet, his team is not that talented, and they like to run too much.
Cutler / Schaub -Schaub, at least talent wise, is well below Cutler level. I think you should switch them. I predict Devin Hester will have a monster year given Cutler's arm and Hester's ability to get open + run after catch.
Palmer and Roethlisberger should not be on the same tier. One is clearly going to be throwing more than the other.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby mattb47 » Wed Aug 05, 2009 9:50 pm

Here's my thoughts about the whole "TO effect".

Why it hurts Romo that he's leaving Dallas - Dallas was a passing team...TO commands respect from defenses and it opened things up immensely for Witten over the middle and the other guys on occasion to step in and be open because of it. He was also a monster in the redzone which gave Romo a fantastic target to throw to down there. Roy Williams is a monumental step down from TO and teams will be jumping all over Witten now. I also fully expect Dallas to become much more of a run-focused team with the guys they have in their backfield (Barber, Jones, Choice) and take some pressure off of Romo that way. Dallas was #8 in passing attempts last season...it was the most they've attempted since 1997 and I wouldn't expect it again...it obviously hasn't been working for them and their running game has been above average each season.

Why it doesn't immediately make Edwards a great fantasy QB - The Bills don't throw the ball! It's pretty simple really...it's all about opportunity. The Bills were #24 in passing attempts last season, #30 the season before, and #28 in 2006...they are a team that wants to run the ball and play defense. It's the way Dick Jauron coaches and it's not going to change this season whether TO is there or not. Edwards is a guy I'm looking at as a nice QB2, but he's nowhere near the top 10 yet and 1 aging WR, as good as he might be, is not enough to put him up there.

You can only attribute so much to a QB when you're just looking at the teams he is playing. Rivers threw WAY more TDs per attempt than he has in past years...way higher than the other QBs in the league last season and there's little question that the TD ratio will come back down to earth this year. I also wouldn't expect his astronomical yards per attempt average to be quite as high either...that means that he'll be dropping rather significantly in yardage (probably down to the 3500 range at most), and down into the 20's somewhere TD wise. That is not good enough to put him where you have him in your tiers regardless of where he is in that tier.

Cassel is in an absolutely abysmal situation, there's no Tony Gonzalez, he only has one legitimate receiving threat, and he's just not that good of a QB. He won't be better than Ryan because he's a far inferior QB to Ryan with worse targets and less of a running game to keep defenses honest.

Schaub has put up great numbers when he's been able to stay healthy...if he's healthy he has a chance to even outperform the tier I put him in. He has easily one of the top 3 WRs in the NFL on his team, a great TE, and is on a very explosive offense. He's got all the makings of a fantasy stud if he can manage to play a full season. Cutler, talented as he may be, is on a run first team and has weak targets offensively. It only takes you so far to be a great QB without much to throw to.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby biju » Thu Aug 06, 2009 2:29 am

Matt, while I do agree that TO's move hurts Dallas more than it helps the Bills I'm not sure it's fair to believe that Dallas is the only one that will adapt their play calling to their personnel. I suspect Buffalo will begin throwing the ball more, but the amount that they increase will likely still keep them in the bottom half of the league.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Dan Lambskin » Thu Aug 06, 2009 8:16 am

Kensat30 wrote:Another guy I'm seeing underrated all over the place is Kyle Orton.

This is a guy who was a fantasy QB1 early in the season in Chicago with a below average set of skill position players there. I don't think he is all that talented, but he is already penciled in as regular season starter in Denver.

We're talking about a guy has one of the top young talents in the game in Eddie Royal (100 reception, YAC potential), one of the best athletes in Marshall (100 reception, YAC potential) and a gift pass-catching TE with injury problems in Scheffler. The weapons speak for themselves, but if you dig a little deeper you become more optimistic. Orton's one knock is the long ball, but his targets are all high reception/YAC guys. McDaniels is implementing a Patriot-esque "spread" system with 1 RB backfield that emphasizes quick throws. Denver took Moreno #1 overall because he is the most complete all around RB in this class. The want a guy back there that can block and catch basically. And it makes sense considering the Denver front 7 is widely considered to be the worst in the entire NFL right now. They want to keep those guys off the field and they want to utilize those pass catchers. We're looking at 600 pass attempts virtually guaranteed for the Denver starter and it looks like Orton is the guy barring injury.

Even the backup RBs have been showing shades of Kevin Faulk in this offense. Lamont Jordan has been running with the 1s and he has a history of catching a lot of passes in the right system. And even still, Correll Buckhalter of all guys has been being used as a receiver out of the backfield with regularity.

1. Bad defense
2. Good Targets
3. Favorable Scheme
4. Good division
5. Secure starting spot

Why does this guy go QB18 or QB20 in most drafts? I have him as one of the first QB2s to go off the board. This guy could potentially put up a Kurt Warner-esque performance in 2009 (and still only win 4 or 5 games).


yeah Orton is intriguing...definately worth a gamble as a QB2/platoon QB. i have him in a Dynasty and i cant even get an offer for him, hoping he starts out hot and i can move him (have Warner so cant see him playing too often)
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Kensat30 » Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:20 am

Dan Lambskin wrote:
yeah Orton is intriguing...definately worth a gamble as a QB2/platoon QB. i have him in a Dynasty and i cant even get an offer for him, hoping he starts out hot and i can move him (have Warner so cant see him playing too often)


If Warner goes down, Orton is the kind of guy who could save your season. Why not hang onto that guy if you can't get anything for him? Thatsaid, I think Orton may only slightly underrated or even properly valued in your dynasty league. Orton doesn't have the kind of talent for long term success in fantasy IMO and benefits mostly from his situation and a scheme that plays to his strengths. He's more of a one year player for me. Chris Simms could easily replace him by next year and then a top5 rookie QB in 2011.
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby Dan Lambskin » Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:26 am

Kensat30 wrote:
Dan Lambskin wrote:
yeah Orton is intriguing...definately worth a gamble as a QB2/platoon QB. i have him in a Dynasty and i cant even get an offer for him, hoping he starts out hot and i can move him (have Warner so cant see him playing too often)


If Warner goes down, Orton is the kind of guy who could save your season. Why not hang onto that guy if you can't get anything for him? Thatsaid, I think Orton may only slightly underrated or even properly valued in your dynasty league. Orton doesn't have the kind of talent for long term success in fantasy IMO and benefits mostly from his situation and a scheme that plays to his strengths. He's more of a one year player for me. Chris Simms could easily replace him by next year and then a top5 rookie QB in 2011.


sorry for hijacking but that's what i will probably do now (only other QB is Campbell so i'm already hurthing long term, but i'm looking to win now). i had a shot at getting leinert but i dont think his future value is very high (owner wanted Hasselbeck...ended up trading Hass for Julius Jones instead)

so yeah, i agree Orton doesnt have a good long term outlook, but QB's always seem to get hurt so i would still consider flipping him to an owner in need
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Re: BGboothA's top 20 QB (tell me where I am wrong)

Postby 2ksports » Thu Aug 06, 2009 1:13 pm

mattb47 wrote:Here's my thoughts about the whole "TO effect".

Why it hurts Romo that he's leaving Dallas - Dallas was a passing team...TO commands respect from defenses and it opened things up immensely for Witten over the middle and the other guys on occasion to step in and be open because of it. He was also a monster in the redzone which gave Romo a fantastic target to throw to down there. Roy Williams is a monumental step down from TO and teams will be jumping all over Witten now. I also fully expect Dallas to become much more of a run-focused team with the guys they have in their backfield (Barber, Jones, Choice) and take some pressure off of Romo that way. Dallas was #8 in passing attempts last season...it was the most they've attempted since 1997 and I wouldn't expect it again...it obviously hasn't been working for them and their running game has been above average each season.

Why it doesn't immediately make Edwards a great fantasy QB - The Bills don't throw the ball! It's pretty simple really...it's all about opportunity. The Bills were #24 in passing attempts last season, #30 the season before, and #28 in 2006...they are a team that wants to run the ball and play defense. It's the way Dick Jauron coaches and it's not going to change this season whether TO is there or not. Edwards is a guy I'm looking at as a nice QB2, but he's nowhere near the top 10 yet and 1 aging WR, as good as he might be, is not enough to put him up there.

You can only attribute so much to a QB when you're just looking at the teams he is playing. Rivers threw WAY more TDs per attempt than he has in past years...way higher than the other QBs in the league last season and there's little question that the TD ratio will come back down to earth this year. I also wouldn't expect his astronomical yards per attempt average to be quite as high either...that means that he'll be dropping rather significantly in yardage (probably down to the 3500 range at most), and down into the 20's somewhere TD wise. That is not good enough to put him where you have him in your tiers regardless of where he is in that tier.

Cassel is in an absolutely abysmal situation, there's no Tony Gonzalez, he only has one legitimate receiving threat, and he's just not that good of a QB. He won't be better than Ryan because he's a far inferior QB to Ryan with worse targets and less of a running game to keep defenses honest.

Schaub has put up great numbers when he's been able to stay healthy...if he's healthy he has a chance to even outperform the tier I put him in. He has easily one of the top 3 WRs in the NFL on his team, a great TE, and is on a very explosive offense. He's got all the makings of a fantasy stud if he can manage to play a full season. Cutler, talented as he may be, is on a run first team and has weak targets offensively. It only takes you so far to be a great QB without much to throw to.


Roy Williams is not a monumental downgrade, he's actually a really good receiver, talent wise. Also, this is the year Felix Jones will be unleashed out of the backfield, an extra safety net for Romo that can take 5 yard passes 15-30 yards up field, or better. I think Dallas has a chance to be Saints-like on offense. I predict 4000/30 for Romo this year, and I that means I think Roy Williams will be a steal. I feel like Roy never assimilated into the offense last year largely due to T.O.'s presence, but this is the year to be high on Roy.

The Bills said they are going to throw more. A lot more. They are doing full entire practices running nothing but no-huddle. As their pace increases, so does their opportunity. Dick Jauron is clearly changing his offensive philosophy. If they run no-huddle, either they will score quickly or lose the ball quickly, either case, it's great for Edwards. If they fall behind, they will only throw more. I feel like you are just analyzing past stats, but the past is rarely a great indication of the future, especially in football.

I see your point about Rivers. I am still high on him though.

I think offensive schemes are everything, and that's why I believe Cassel will be good this year. They'll be forced to throw, including garbage yards. He'll simply have to do what Thigpen did last year to be where he is at on my tiers. IMO his situation is not abysmal. Gonzo is getting old too, so losing him is not that big of a deal. There's nothing you can't replace with a little creativity and there are ALWAYS good playmakers that step up on every team to fill out the scheme.

Schaub can play well, but a great QB can change a team, and that's what Jay Cutler is. I know the bears are viewed as a running team, but are they really? Have we all forgotten Rex Grossman? Have we all forgotten how 1 QB (Brady) can change the complexion of an entire team? Have we forgotten to read training camp reports of the bears adapting their offense around Cutler and setting him free? I know you may not think much of Devin Hester, but he's a 3rd year receiver now basically, and he's got Steve-Smith like similarities, only Hester is taller at 5-11 vs 5-9. There is no doubt in my mind that Devin Hester will command consistent double teams this year, absolutely no doubt. The Bears know full well what a Speed burner like Smith can do to a good defense (see playoffs Panthers-Bears) and they will exploit the passing game with what some might consider to be the best arm in the NFC. For these reasons I'm also predicting Forte to be a complete bust, and wont' draft until after the 3rd round at the earliest.
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