Steven Jackson, really a top 5 pick?

[eagles21]

Decided to make this its own thread, although my further research on this subject can be attributed to Kensat. Thanks!

After looking at a few different ADP websites, Steven Jackson is, on average, the 1.05 pick in drafts. This is rather generous, considering Steven Jackson has not broken into the top 10 in the last two years. To be fair though, Jackson has been plagued by injuries the last two seasons, and he was #3 in fantasy points in 06, when he did play all 16 games.

Although Jackson did not finish among the top RB's the last 2 seasons, he has always made the most of his opportunities when he was not sidelined with injuries.

In 2008, Jackson was #3 RB in terms of points per game (PPG), despite being #13 in total points. In 2007, he was #9 in PPG and #14 in total fantasy points. And finally, in 06, he was the #3 RB in both fantasy points and PPG. So, when looking at these statistics, you could make the case the Jackson deserves a top 5 pick, hoping that he can return to 2006 form and avoid injuries. And you could also be confident that even if he does get hurt, he will put up top 5 RB numbers when he does play. Or can you?

Week 16 is the week where most fantasy leagues hold their championship games, leaving week 17 as the final regular season week without fantasy football. Most teams who have already clinched playoff birth will sit their star players, and aside from a few meaningful games, week 17 is a pretty laid back week. Don't tell this to Steven Jackson though. The Rams Week 17 game has meant absolutely nothing for the last 5 years, but despite this, in 2008 and 2006, Jackson has had his 2nd best and best scoring weeks. In 2008, he had 215 total yards and 2 TD's, and in 2006, 166 total yards and 4 TD's. Let's take a look at his stats without these games:

With Week 17:
2008: 1422 total yards, 8 TD's. 15.9 PPG (#3 RB in PPG).
2006: 2334 total yards, 16 TD's. 20.6 PPG (#3 RB in PPG).

Without Week 17:
2008: 1207 total yards, 6 TD's. 14.25 PPG (#10 RB in PPG).
2006: 2168 total yards, 12 TD's. 19.25 PPG (#3 RB in PPG).

2006 was the year where Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, and Steven Jackson all put up crazy numbers, at least 50 points higher in total fantasy points then the #4 RB. Of coarse, without Week 17, this becomes a lot closer, but Jackson still maintains #3.

Here's another quick fact about Jackson. Of the 11 games Jackson played in last year, he totaled half of his entire season's fantasy points in 3 games. He got the other half in the other 9 games he played in.

To be clear, I'm not trying to dismiss Steven Jackson by this thread. He is still a great running back (one of the few bright spots of the Rams) with top 10 talent, but I think the points per game when he does play (which is his claim to fame, it seems) is being looked at without the knowledge of how he plays when he means absolutely nothing for your team. Last year was the only year where these stats showed any significant change to his rank, but the fact that he has done this twice in his career makes it necessary to bring up.

IMO, Steven Jackson is a late 1st round pick. He has the upside due to his performance in 06 and his high PPG, but I don't think he's worth picking as the #5-rated RB.

[Dan Lambskin]

i have him as my #3 RB in both standard and PPR...tough call if i'd actually draft him at 1.03 though. (note: i know that doesnt make a ton of sense, but Value wise i have him that high but would hope to get him later 1st round, gun to my head at 1.03 i may pass)

with that said, i think there's question marks about all of the top RB's, so that's why i'd be inclined to gamble on S-Jax who has possibly the highest upside

[eagles21]

i have him as my #3 RB in both standard and PPR...tough call if i'd actually draft him at 1.03 though. (note: i know that doesnt make a ton of sense, but Value wise i have him that high but would hope to get him later 1st round, gun to my head at 1.03 i may pass)

with that said, i think there's question marks about all of the top RB's, so that's why i'd be inclined to gamble on S-Jax who has possibly the highest upside

He definitely has a great deal of upside. But how long are we all willing to wait for this to come? I mean, it's been two years.

I don't know how relevant these stats are anyway. I particularly like looking at stats though, so I post when I see something interesting. Read my 1st post with an open mind.

[Dan Lambskin]

i have him as my #3 RB in both standard and PPR...tough call if i'd actually draft him at 1.03 though. (note: i know that doesnt make a ton of sense, but Value wise i have him that high but would hope to get him later 1st round, gun to my head at 1.03 i may pass)

with that said, i think there's question marks about all of the top RB's, so that's why i'd be inclined to gamble on S-Jax who has possibly the highest upside

He definitely has a great deal of upside. But how long are we all willing to wait for this to come? I mean, it's been two years.

I don't know how relevant these stats are anyway. I particularly like looking at stats though, so I post when I see something interesting. Read my 1st post with an open mind.

yeah i actually looked at that going into 2007. his 2006 weeks 14-17 were obscene in general...Week 16 too (252 total yards, 2 TDs) so part of me said he didnt do much the rest of the year, part of me said he pretty much ruined my 2007 season drafting him high, so i'm nervous about doing it again, but he's just so damn intriguing

[Dawinner127]

Phenomenal post. In a few mocks I have done recently, S.Jax has been taken mid to late first round, but when I first started doing mocks about a month ago, he was slipping to the early second round. I feel like more and more people are sipping in his kool-aid and are hoping that he can return to 2006 form. As for me, I wouldn't mind taking S.Jax late in round one just because of the upside he has and the only way the Rams are going to win, is if S.Jax gets the ball.

[moose_ffc]

http://www.footballdocs.com/fantasy-foo ... tions.html - S. Jax is 4th overall
http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/2009/overall.cfm - S. Jax is 3rd

I think people are on to S. Jax. I had hopes of picking him up at 1.06 a month ago, but that dream has faded. I will now be looking to one of the younger guys and/or one of the guys splitting carries. S. Jax is a workhorse and there just aren't that many of them in NFL.

[Free Bagel]

People feel like Chris Johnson did pretty well last year, right? Did you know that Sjax scored roughly the same number of points in 11 games in an embarrassingly bad situation as Chris Johnson scored in all 16 games last year?

I think that people that haven't watched St Louis the last couple years don't fully understand what's going on here. I don't think people really understand how bad of a situation St Louis was the last 2 years. Short of Oakland during the Aaron Brooks era, I can't EVER think of one that was worse.

St Louis could barely pick up a first down last year. They never got into the redzone, barely ever sustained a drive past 3 plays, went backwards as often as forwards, and had a defense that had them commonly abandoning the run by the 2nd quarter. Yet Jackson STILL managed to finish in the top 3 in PPG among RBs and in the top 15 for the whole season despite playing only 11 games.

Did you know that FOUR PLAYERS on the Patriots alone had more redzone carries than Sjax? Did you know that month-long backups like Mewelde Moore had more Redzone carries than Sjax? Yet he was STILL top 3 in PPG, and top 15 for the season even missing 5 games.

Simply put, Sjax has the highest floor imaginable. Fantasy points are a product of talent and situation. There is no other player in the league for which we can say, we know he would still be a top 5 player no matter how bad the team around him gets. None. Even the San Diego team LT had in his early years was 10x the situation for a RB that STL has been the last 2 years. What happens to Chris Johnson if the Titans turn inept next year? What happens to Peterson or MJD if those teams don't even get into the redzone in half their games? What happens to Peterson if the Vikings have to lineup in the shotgun and air it out by the 2nd quarter?

Now, on the flipside, things change fast in the NFL (just ask Miami and Atlanta). What happens if STL becomes mediocre or even just simply bad instead of god-awful next year? Well, we saw what happens in 2006. Now, imagine what Sjax could do if STL went through a Miami or Atlanta style turnaround?

Now, people are going to come in and say that STL isn't going to be any better this year, which if they've been paying attention to the NFL the last decade is absurd given how quickly god-awful teams have turned around in spite of no obvious changes. But the point is, even if they don't, IT DOESN'T MATTER because Sjax is ALREADY putting up top 3 ppg numbers every year even in the god-awful situation he's been in.

So, simply put, why does Sjax get the love?

Because his floor in his "bad" seasons is as good or better than the "good" seasons of the people being drafted around him, and his ceiling given the awful situations he's been playing in and still producing is light-years ahead of them.

I really feel like people that don't see it are missing the very obvious boat here. The last time I felt a player was this badly underrated (given the talk about him more than the draft position) was Steven Jackson heading into the 2006 season.

[jhoefen]

the thing i like most about this situation is not only the numbers he put up with the team they had last year but the improvements to the offensive line! they drafted Jason Smith in the first round to play right tackle and signed jason brown from the ravens to play center (an above average center) that along with the fact that they dont seem to have much in the way of recievers means S. Jax could be in for a huge year. I personally think he is one of, if not THE top talented RB in the NFL. so top 5, for sure!

[smackthefirst]

Without going into a longer post, I completely agree with Free Bagel. The only reason I can see knocking SJax out of at least the top 5 is if you are scared about injuries. The Rams have been a horrid team (is there a worst word than horrid because if so, I would use that) and SJax has still put up the numbers he has. Barring an injury, I don't see how the situation or his numbers could get worse. But if the Rams improve even a measly 10%, SJax's production could jump significantly. Another thing that FB didn't point out that I add in this year as a plus is the loss of Holt. SJax has always been a receiving threat out of the backfield and I think his targets will increase this year due to Holt's being gone, Bulger's needing to get rid of the ball quickly, and the coaches wanting to get the ball into SJax's hands as much as possible without completely killing him.

And in keeper and/or dynasty leagues, I like SJax even more as he is still relatively young at only 26. Basically I see SJax as someone you can most likely get in the middle to late first round and possibly end up with the number 1 RB by season's end barring injury.

[moochman]

Thanks Bagel, you son-of-a-biscuit! Now I will never be able to have S Jax slide down to the back half of the first round.
With where he has been getting drafted, he is one of the best value picks in the draft.