I've been debating this exact thing internally for a couple of weeks now. I have the 1st pick in a 12 team league where we can start up to 3 RBs (flex). In a few mock drafts, I've tinkered w/ RB,WR,WR; RB,WR,RB; and RB,RB,RB. Here are results, you guys can tell me what you would rather have:
Peterson, Boldin, Colston
Peterson, Boldin, Ronnie Brown
Peterson, Brown, Portis
Now, which of these three scenarios is the best foundation for a winning season? I say it's RB,WR,WR.
"Here's the thing: if you can't spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, you are the sucker."- Rounders
smackthefirst wrote:I think Dan hit the nail on the head here. The increasing popularity of RBBC is what has lessened the need to stack up on RBs early and often. This year there are only a handful of RBs who are true full time RBs and once you get past them, the picture gets very murky. A few years ago, it was a long shot at best that a RB drafted in the 5th round or later would out produce RBs drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but this year I could see it happening a relatively large percentage of the time. And even if the RB drafted in the 5th doesn't out produce the RB drafted in the 2nd, if that 5th round RB can stay within a point or two per game to the 2nd round RB, then the relative value of that 5th round RB is greater than the 2nd round RB. And by taking the 5th round RB, you open up your draft to take a WR/QB/TE much earlier than you may have a few seasons ago.
This year, I would be surprised to see me end up with three RBs by the end of the 3rd whereas no more than three years ago, I could almost guarantee that my first three picks were RBs. This is actually the first year that I am very strongly considering going WR/WR or WR/QB in a start 2QB league with a late draft pick and we can start up to 3 RBs with the flex spot.
Interesting, one of my leagues is was a 2QB league, but now its 1 QB with a QB/RB/WR/TE Flex. In this league, RB puts up a bit higher points on average. I am thinking of going some combination of 2RB/2QB in first 4 rounds. I think your WR/WR in first 3 rounds is suicide in a 2 QB league, let someone else make that mistake.
It actually depends on where you draft from, but I agree it's a gamble. Right now I'm in a slow draft that starts 2QB-2RB-2WR-1FL-1TE and I've assembled this so far. Obviously, I am stocking up on RBs as I have no clear cut stud but I feel comfortable with the stable I've put together producing enough to keep me very competitive. My only concern is that I will be weak at TE, but I'm high on Celek this year and find myself consistently waiting around for him.
Let me put it this way...RB is the only position I'll draft a backup before I have the rest of my major starting lineup filled - but I wouldn't do it in the third round. I think a lot of people are open to an RB/RB/RB open, but it is hard to make a serious argument to draft Lendale White ahead of Reggie Wayne or some other top WR that has fallen into the third round. Especially when rounds 4 & 5 typically see a very small number of RBs drafted. Often, I'll look at the next RB on my draft board when I pick in round 3 - in round 6, the guy two lines below him is still available.
The third round just seems like the worst possible value point to draft a backup at any position, including RB.