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Re: Best Ball strategies

Postby biju » Tue Aug 04, 2009 7:39 pm

RWLongy4 wrote:Well rather than theorize, let's take a look. Here are the top 3 fantasy QBs last year sorted by avg points per game (based on a pretty normal point system.)

QB Yr APPG T
1. Drew Brees 2008 22.21 355.35
2. Jay Cutler 2008 20.83 333.30
3. Aaron Rodgers 2008 20.66 330.60
Kurt Warner 2008 20.22 303.30
Let's take Drew Brees the top performer as you used it in your example. His total fantasy points for the year were 355.35.

Now lets take the composite of the 19th 20th and 21st best QBs (assumes a 10 team league and has everyone else already drafting 2 qbs) We will drop the week Drew Brees had a bye just for ease.

19. Ben Roethlisberger 2008 14.88 238.10
20. Matt Ryan 2008 14.82 222.30
21. Jason Campbell 2008 14.57 233.05

Week by Week composite
W1: 14.55 (Ben)
W2: 19.55 (Jason)
W3: 18.25 (Jason)
W4: 17.85 (Jason)
W5: 24.65 (Ben)
W6: 18.15 (Matt)
W7: 16.7 (Ben)
W8: 20.25 (Ben)
W9: Drew's Bye
W10: 18.2 (Matt)
W11: 15.4 (Ben)
W12: 22.45 (Ben)
W13: 16.05 (Matt)
W14: 26.05 (Matt)
W15: 17.4 (Ben)
W16: 23.95 (Ben)
W17: 20.7 (Jason)

Total Composite: 310.15.

This puts the trio between the third and fourth place QBs last year. Some things to consider with the 3 bargain bin QB system:
- This does not take into consideration the trios' bye weeks, since they are the worst QBs on anyone's roster (theoretically) you could rotate in whom you'd like for one bye week QB with no issues.
- You can play the matchups, If you don't like that Big Ben is taking on Baltimore's defense this week, rotate him for someone playing the Lions. :-b
- High risk/reward guys: With this system it would give you the ability to go after someone like stafford/culpepper (just using your example) who has the ability to put up giant numbers or throw 5 picks.

Anyway, I had no idea how it would come out before I did this... Just was curious to see. I think it shows that there may be some viability in that strategy if you aren't able to get a top 3 QB.


Actually, in thinking about this the logic is more than sound.

At first I was going to write that I'd rather have the one stud QB so I can take those extra chances on WRs and RBs, but realistically you're going to need to have at least one more QB for bye weeks and even then you're putting yourself in a position where if you have an injury you could be in real trouble.

I'm a fan of the "lowly three" for this format.

As a side note, I'd never heard of this so it sound interesting for sure, but if you're not doing WW transactions during the year then I wouldn't have fun. After the draft, the second most entertaining aspect of FF for me is picking up the WW gems.
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Re: Best Ball strategies

Postby bungle613 » Tue Aug 04, 2009 8:26 pm

I hate the wire but really just doing a buddy a favour.

I think you can go either route for the QB, spend the 3rd roudner on a name or use mid to late roudners and get the same result. The issue will be is I think I start 9 and have a 7 man bench which will cause me issues rostering 3 QB's.

IT also leads to my next question. I have not crunched any nmubers yet but off the top of my head I am torn almost equally...

DO I draft 1 K and 1 D/ST or 2 of each???
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Re: Best Ball strategies

Postby RWLongy4 » Tue Aug 04, 2009 9:02 pm

bungle613 wrote:I hate the wire but really just doing a buddy a favour.

I think you can go either route for the QB, spend the 3rd roudner on a name or use mid to late roudners and get the same result. The issue will be is I think I start 9 and have a 7 man bench which will cause me issues rostering 3 QB's.

IT also leads to my next question. I have not crunched any nmubers yet but off the top of my head I am torn almost equally...

DO I draft 1 K and 1 D/ST or 2 of each???


That is a tough one, personally I wouldn't draft any and do the rotating system again completely based on matchups... both are such a crapshoot that you could end up having two zero point defenses one week or two great ones. But bottom line is that defenses and kickers generally have the least potential to really "go off" and therefore the spot would be better used on a skill position.

From what I can tell tight end is where you need to get a blue chip guy... you could have 11 mediocre tight ends that won't usually outproduce one of the best. Other than that though, I think you have to draft the highest risk/reward guys as every position is basically a starting position.
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Re: Best Ball strategies

Postby bungle613 » Tue Aug 04, 2009 9:29 pm

RWLongy4 wrote:
bungle613 wrote:I hate the wire but really just doing a buddy a favour.

I think you can go either route for the QB, spend the 3rd roudner on a name or use mid to late roudners and get the same result. The issue will be is I think I start 9 and have a 7 man bench which will cause me issues rostering 3 QB's.

IT also leads to my next question. I have not crunched any nmubers yet but off the top of my head I am torn almost equally...

DO I draft 1 K and 1 D/ST or 2 of each???


That is a tough one, personally I wouldn't draft any and do the rotating system again completely based on matchups... both are such a crapshoot that you could end up having two zero point defenses one week or two great ones. But bottom line is that defenses and kickers generally have the least potential to really "go off" and therefore the spot would be better used on a skill position.

From what I can tell tight end is where you need to get a blue chip guy... you could have 11 mediocre tight ends that won't usually outproduce one of the best. Other than that though, I think you have to draft the highest risk/reward guys as every position is basically a starting position.



There are NO waivers though RW. What I draft is my team. I am thinking about drafting a kicker and a D/ST with the same bye to lessen the impact as I don't think that I want to waste 2 roster spots from the 7 I have on a kicker and a D/ST
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Re: Best Ball strategies

Postby RWLongy4 » Tue Aug 04, 2009 9:46 pm

bungle613 wrote:
RWLongy4 wrote:
bungle613 wrote:I hate the wire but really just doing a buddy a favour.

I think you can go either route for the QB, spend the 3rd roudner on a name or use mid to late roudners and get the same result. The issue will be is I think I start 9 and have a 7 man bench which will cause me issues rostering 3 QB's.

IT also leads to my next question. I have not crunched any nmubers yet but off the top of my head I am torn almost equally...

DO I draft 1 K and 1 D/ST or 2 of each???


That is a tough one, personally I wouldn't draft any and do the rotating system again completely based on matchups... both are such a crapshoot that you could end up having two zero point defenses one week or two great ones. But bottom line is that defenses and kickers generally have the least potential to really "go off" and therefore the spot would be better used on a skill position.

From what I can tell tight end is where you need to get a blue chip guy... you could have 11 mediocre tight ends that won't usually outproduce one of the best. Other than that though, I think you have to draft the highest risk/reward guys as every position is basically a starting position.



There are NO waivers though RW. What I draft is my team. I am thinking about drafting a kicker and a D/ST with the same bye to lessen the impact as I don't think that I want to waste 2 roster spots from the 7 I have on a kicker and a D/ST


Wow sorry I missed that, that's insane. Yeah I would def. not waste 2 slots on each. So basically forfeit a week then?
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Re: Best Ball strategies

Postby bungle613 » Tue Aug 04, 2009 9:50 pm

Yeah, I think so. My dilemma anyways. IT doesn't make sense logically to use 4 of 16 roster spots on kicker and D/ST but I can't be certain until I crunch some numbers.

I was leaning towards the 3 QB theory until I thought about how badly that can hurt my team overall as I think I would prefer fliers on WR's and RB's.

I knew I could count on the cafe for solid ideas... keep em coming. I have until 8:30 on Thurday night to figure this out.
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Re: Best Ball strategies

Postby RWLongy4 » Tue Aug 04, 2009 10:36 pm

I just had a thought...


Maybe we make a cafe best ball league, draft and do one with cafe members and write an informative article or two on what we found.
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Re: Best Ball strategies

Postby bungle613 » Tue Aug 04, 2009 10:45 pm

RWLongy4 wrote:I just had a thought...


Maybe we make a cafe best ball league, draft and do one with cafe members and write an informative article or two on what we found.



Sure, send off a PM to Daullaz or Doflin (never sure who is in charge of what) and see what he says. I think it is Daullaz at elast he seems to spearhead most of the writing department, mocks, rankings etc...

I see best ball more and more these days and it could be the "new thing" in ff. Or I could just be really behind the times and everyone has been playing this format for years. I don't see it taking off though as really, there is no action in season.
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Re: Best Ball strategies

Postby Kensat30 » Thu Aug 06, 2009 3:29 pm

I think having at least 2 defenses is essential and it can make sense to add 3. Kicker I would gamble on one.

Like people said, most kickers average about the same every week. If you get a decent player who stays healthy all year you will be fine and you can still win the week where your kicker has a bye. The real risk you take with only 1 kicker is an injury. Rarely do kickers blow up for 20+ points, and when that happens its a single kicker and it doesn't even happen every week. Points don't matter that much at the kicker position, you just need someone out there each week who will get you the 5-10 points or whatever the kicker average is.

Defense on the other hand can regularly blow up or get shut down. Week to week in fantasy football, defenses can be major difference makers. Back when Plindsey was running it, the fantasy d formula thread was the best one on this board because it could help to predict the blowup defenses. What's better than grabbing a 20+ point defense of a crappy team off waivers right? Why not increase your chances in any given week by increasing your number of defenses? D is similar to the QB position, except that fantasy defenses there is no "stud" route that you can take. People drafting defenses in rounds 5, 7 , 8 or whatever every year usually get burned hard. There is no rhyme or reason to defenses, its a numbers game. You are really forced to go multiple defenses if you want consistent solid production in a best ball league/survivor type league. I want at least 10 points frmo my defenses every week in that format. A single defense scoring back to back 0 point weeks will kill you.

16 man roster, my roster and strategy look something like this:

2 QBs
4 RB
6 WRs
1 TE
1 K
2 D

Get 3 starters at RB early. Mix in a couple of WRs if you see some value in the WR1 or WR2 range. Grab solid middle round QBs and TE. Wait on the WR position, but draft deep and draft for value. Draft 2 defenses and a kicker last.
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Re: Best Ball strategies

Postby aaawall91 » Thu Aug 06, 2009 4:00 pm

This sounds amazing. I want to play in one of these leagues. No mock, lets do this. I'll even commish if we have enough interest.
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