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Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

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Re: Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

Postby petedog9 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:20 am

I hear ya.. Holmes and Moss are both higher teir guys then the thers we were comparing though.. I too think Holmes' light turned on finally in the playoffs. He had HUGE plays in every playoff game last year and of course that final drive in the SB.. He is a bit of a concern though. Last year too he was drafted 3 rounds (avg) before Holmes, yet Hines out produced him across the board..

He is the perfect example of what we are talking about now. People drafted Holmes last year as a "breakout" candidate with huge upside and took him several rounds before the proven "old guy" in Ward. Yet Ward being steady and true, had a much better year in the end and was had 2-3 rounds later...
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Re: Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

Postby mattUTD20 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 12:11 pm

Azrael wrote:
mattUTD20 wrote:
Its a "give up" pick because why exactly? It doesn't require some trivial analysis that may or may not pan out? If you are the kind of fantasy player that is more interested in just being able to say you landed SoandSo last year in the 10th round, then by all means overlook the "give up" picks. But I'd be willing to wager that you completely wiff on these kind of players more often than you hit, making it a completely worthless pursuit.


It's a give up pick because there is no potential for these guys to make a huge impact for your team and people take these guys because they are a name they recognize and feel safe knowing they'll get 1,000 and 5 from them. And these guys are mid 30's. There's no telling when father time makes the wheels fall off. I'm the kind of fantasy player that wants to win, not just have a solid team. Everyone in my league LAUGHED at me last year when I traded AJ, Chris Johnson, and Warner for Forte, LJ, Berrian, and Thigpen. I didn't care if I made the playoffs; I wanted to win. I saw week 16 AJ against Asomugha, CJ against Steeler D, and Warner in NE in December. I made it to the championship but still lost because the other guy had a better week but people weren't laughing any more and I had given myself the best opportunity to win the championship. Warner, AJ, CJ...all weekly starters of mine but what did they do against those tough matchups? 13 or 14 points combined I think, 12 coming from Chris. Yes, I forfeited 3-4 weeks of some better play and a virtual lock of making the playoffs but just having a solid showing isn't good enough for me.

Who knows what a guy like Jay Cutler brings to the table, immensely talented, makes others around him better, can get the ball in the hands of his receivers important fractions of seconds faster than most other QBs. It's sometimes the difference between a first down and a batted down ball or a TD and a pick.

You are right though Matt; most of these guys on this list will amount to nothing. Look at the guys in the top 30 WRs from last year. How many of those guys come out of nowhere to land there? Antonio Bryant, Lance Moore, Kevin Walter...that's about it that really made an impact. And who are these guys? Well Bryant was a huge talent that was washed up, out of football for awhile, landed in a spot with no talent and a play making QB (Garcia). Lance Moore fell into the No. 1 WR spot on the best passing offense in the league. Kevin Walter is an over achiever in a good situation. Chances are we aren't going to find this year's Lance Moore or Kevin Walter but a Bryant is a guy we can find. Might we miss, yeah we might miss on 3 out of 4 of those, chances are we will because year after year not many "out of nowhere" WRs show up but just about every year a few do. And I think some of those opportunities can be ascertained and not just guessed at.

I mentioned Hester. There's Chris Henry. Huge talent, complete jerk. Probably never worked hard, constantly suspended. Geez, if he finally applies himself, how does he not get on the field. Could be a guy that catches 60 passes for 12 TDs.

Santonio Holmes is a guy I think about. Has the light finally gone on for him? Will he be that 1,200 and 10-12 guy we thought he might be last year or does he have the Deion Branch syndrome, where he just teases us by showing up in big spots. Santana Moss, where did that first half come from and what happened in the 2nd half? Will the Skins take more shots down field? Does the playbook finally open up for Campbell having been in the same system for 2 consecutive years finally?

WR is so volatile and RB is so deep I will likely have 3 of the top 20 WRs on my teams and then take 2 or 3 shots later on. I want young talented guys with solid stable QBs on teams that don't run too much.

EDIT: And another thing I think Kensat already mentioned, guys like Mason and Driver are not going to bail you out of a Braylon Edwards type meltdown. They aren't going to replace that if by some chance one of your stud WRs busts. Some of those guys I mentioned might.


I don't see how your drafted WR3 or WR4 turning out to be a WR2 isn't important. My strategy is pretty simple, I want my WR1 to end up as a WR1, my WR2 to be a WR1 and my WR3/4/5 to be WR2/3. There is a lot less room for disappointment this way and its a lot easier to assess. Aiming for a WR1 out of every pick is ridiculous. You are overexposing your position and are drafting way too much on just pure upside. Guess how many WRs drafted from WR25-48 (a WR3-4 in a 12 teamer) actually ended up as a WR1? ONE. One out of 24 picks actually lived up to your strategy here.

I think this just boils down to a difference in strategy. If you are shooting for WR1 potential out of all your picks then go for it, but that just isn't reasonable. You will probably end up with a roster with a bunch of guys who didn't live up to expectations. Please don't act like trying to hit homeruns on every pick is the only strategy that can win a championship. That couldn't be further from the truth.

I don't know what point you were trying to make with Bryant, Walter, and Moore. Those three guys were pretty much undrafted. I was talking about guys that are actually drafted not WW pickups.

If your WR1 busts Braylon Edwards style, then you are pretty much boned regardless of your draft strategy.
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Re: Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

Postby BGbootha » Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:53 pm

mattUTD20 wrote:I don't see how your drafted WR3 or WR4 turning out to be a WR2 isn't important. My strategy is pretty simple, I want my WR1 to end up as a WR1, my WR2 to be a WR1 and my WR3/4/5 to be WR2/3. There is a lot less room for disappointment this way and its a lot easier to assess. Aiming for a WR1 out of every pick is ridiculous. You are overexposing your position and are drafting way too much on just pure upside. Guess how many WRs drafted from WR25-48 (a WR3-4 in a 12 teamer) actually ended up as a WR1? ONE. One out of 24 picks actually lived up to your strategy here.


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Re: Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

Postby Purple1 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:54 pm

mattUTD20 wrote:
mattUTD20 wrote:


I don't see how your drafted WR3 or WR4 turning out to be a WR2 isn't important. My strategy is pretty simple, I want my WR1 to end up as a WR1, my WR2 to be a WR1 and my WR3/4/5 to be WR2/3. There is a lot less room for disappointment this way and its a lot easier to assess. Aiming for a WR1 out of every pick is ridiculous. You are overexposing your position and are drafting way too much on just pure upside. Guess how many WRs drafted from WR25-48 (a WR3-4 in a 12 teamer) actually ended up as a WR1? ONE. One out of 24 picks actually lived up to your strategy here.

I think this just boils down to a difference in strategy. If you are shooting for WR1 potential out of all your picks then go for it, but that just isn't reasonable. You will probably end up with a roster with a bunch of guys who didn't live up to expectations. Please don't act like trying to hit homeruns on every pick is the only strategy that can win a championship. That couldn't be further from the truth.

I don't know what point you were trying to make with Bryant, Walter, and Moore. Those three guys were pretty much undrafted. I was talking about guys that are actually drafted not WW pickups.

If your WR1 busts Braylon Edwards style, then you are pretty much boned regardless of your draft strategy.


This completely untrue!!!!!

I as I stated before I've gone 4 consecutive years drafting WR1's who end up busting and 2 of the 4 years I've still made the playoffs.

In all my leagues Bryant and Walter were drafted and I'm sure most other leagues as well, Moore I'll give you nobody had him form day 1. But theres 2 other names from last year people keep leaving out Eddie Royal and Deshaun Jackson also help quite a few teams stay competetive and If you drafted one of those 2 you looked pretty good.

Of all those upper tier WR that go in rounds 2-5 only half of them will produce up to or above what you expect out of them, the rest will underperfom all year/get injured or just flat out suck for whatever reason.....If you dont get the guys in the later rounds that replace those guys in the top 20 your pretty much boned!

While I will agree with you that going all out on Boom/Bust guys for your 3-4-5-6 WR's is risky and could really burn you more often than not...You can sometimes over come this by being active on the ww if you do fail massively.

Theres a lot to consider when scouting these guys you can't just open up a magazine and pick all the "sleeper" WR's. You have to dig and scroung for info,this site being one of the best places for it. One of the biggest factors I look for in determining the mid/late round WR's who have the best chances of out-perfoming the more established guys is oppertunity.

Thats why I'll go for a Hester/Harvin over a Mason/Driver. I know what I'll get out of Mason/Driver and its not gonna be enough to cover my arss when my supposed stud WR gets hurt or just plain sucks. Where as a Hester/Harvin are going to get plenty of oppertunity's to move into that upper tier of WR's and if they take advantage it pays off big, if not theres always the ww.

I do agree that its not the only stategy that works, it IS the only strategy that can save you arss when 2 of your top 4 picks bust!! ;-D
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Re: Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

Postby petedog9 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:22 pm

You are only talking best case scenario though... You are counting on those guys to breakout in that event.. You never mention what you are gonna do if your #1 WR is a bust and then your Harvin / Hester combo flop as well. Hester gets his 50+/- rec and Harvin flops like many 1st year wrs do...... Bye Bye season.. Where you would still have a fighting chance with a balanced roster of scoring wrs that will each get 80 rec / 1000 yds and 5-7 tds...

Dont get me wrong.. I will definatley have some BIG upside guys with potential to breakout.. But you can damn well bet that i will have a solid stable of "know what your gonna get" guys in fornt of them until they breakout......
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Re: Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

Postby Azrael » Fri Aug 07, 2009 4:30 pm

mattUTD20 wrote:

I don't know what point you were trying to make with Bryant, Walter, and Moore. Those three guys were pretty much undrafted. I was talking about guys that are actually drafted not WW pickups.

If your WR1 busts Braylon Edwards style, then you are pretty much boned regardless of your draft strategy.


Er, I think I already explained this point but here goes. Walter and Moore are pretty much unforeseen as I said. I think a Bryant could have been drafted even though he was a WW pickup. But I think most people (myself included) just scratched the Tampa passing game off altogether.

If you draft guys like Driver and Mason then you are right, you are boned if your WR1 breaks down. So why do I want them if I have absolutely ZERO chance of replacing that projected production with those guys. Those guys do have lower floors than the picks I'm looking at...Hester, Morgan, Henry...Chambers and Avery to a lesser extent, but I'm not interested in a consistent 6 points to my team. Maybe none of them hit huge but if they do I just replaced or bolstered my starting WR production. I think it's very unlikely I don't get atleast get 1,000 and 6 production from atleast 1 of them and there is potential for more. I don't view those guys as complete rolls of the dice. I think guys like Harvin, Dixon, Ginn, who some people like, are more rolls of the dice.

And while I'm getting my 6 or 7 points from the Masons and Drivers of the world, somebody drafted that iffy guy that blows up every other week and he's killing my "safe" picks.

I can find guys like Mason and Driver on the WW, someone always shows up to do what they do and nobody is really looking to add a receiver good for 60 yards to their team but as soon as somebody goes for 100 and 2 they are added to the team. So if I'm not the fastest one to the computer or don't have WW priority I don't get that guy. Maybe they are just 100 and 2 for that week but maybe they turn out to be Antonio Bryant. Again, I don't look at the guys I'm drafting as drawing names out of the hat. There are certain scenarios that are more likely to bear fruit than others. For example, a golden armed QB added to throw to a No.1 speedy WR looks alot better to me than a WR2 on a team that runs alot for example.
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Re: Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

Postby 2ksports » Fri Aug 07, 2009 4:35 pm

Azrael wrote:
mattUTD20 wrote:

I don't know what point you were trying to make with Bryant, Walter, and Moore. Those three guys were pretty much undrafted. I was talking about guys that are actually drafted not WW pickups.

If your WR1 busts Braylon Edwards style, then you are pretty much boned regardless of your draft strategy.


Er, I think I already explained this point but here goes. Walter and Moore are pretty much unforeseen as I said. I think a Bryant could have been drafted even though he was a WW pickup. But I think most people (myself included) just scratched the Tampa passing game off altogether.

If you draft guys like Driver and Mason then you are right, you are boned if your WR1 breaks down. So why do I want them if I have absolutely ZERO chance of replacing that projected production with those guys. Those guys do have lower floors than the picks I'm looking at...Hester, Morgan, Henry...Chambers and Avery to a lesser extent, but I'm not interested in a consistent 6 points to my team. Maybe none of them hit huge but if they do I just replaced or bolstered my starting WR production. I think it's very unlikely I don't get atleast get 1,000 and 6 production from atleast 1 of them and there is potential for more. I don't view those guys as complete rolls of the dice. I think guys like Harvin, Dixon, Ginn, who some people like, are more rolls of the dice.

And while I'm getting my 6 or 7 points from the Masons and Drivers of the world, somebody drafted that iffy guy that blows up every other week and he's killing my "safe" picks.

I can find guys like Mason and Driver on the WW, someone always shows up to do what they do and nobody is really looking to add a receiver good for 60 yards to their team but as soon as somebody goes for 100 and 2 they are added to the team. So if I'm not the fastest one to the computer or don't have WW priority I don't get that guy. Maybe they are just 100 and 2 for that week but maybe they turn out to be Antonio Bryant. Again, I don't look at the guys I'm drafting as drawing names out of the hat. There are certain scenarios that are more likely to bear fruit than others. For example, a golden armed QB added to throw to a No.1 speedy WR looks alot better to me than a WR2 on a team that runs alot for example.


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Re: Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

Postby Purple1 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 4:38 pm

petedog9 wrote:You are only talking best case scenario though... You are counting on those guys to breakout in that event.. You never mention what you are gonna do if your #1 WR is a bust and then your Harvin / Hester combo flop as well. Hester gets his 50+/- rec and Harvin flops like many 1st year wrs do...... Bye Bye season.. Where you would still have a fighting chance with a balanced roster of scoring wrs that will each get 80 rec / 1000 yds and 5-7 tds...


As I said 4 years in a row Busted WR1, First 2 missed the playoffs 2nd 2 made it.

Those first 2 years I was far more conservitive I didn't spend as much time researching and I genrally choose the more proven guys.

A balanced roster of scoring WR's that will each get 80 rec/ 1000 yds and 5-7 tds?

So after my WR1 busts I will have drafted 4 WR's that will finish anywhere from the 15th best to 20th best? I don't know for sure but It would seem rather hard to pull that off even taking all the proven guys.

Yeah If my WR1 busts and my Up/syde guys bust I'm probably screwed but I'm still on the ww looking for this years lance Moore.

In 2007 I wouldn't have made it into the playoffs after M. Harrison busted if I had filled the back end of my roster with Issace Bruce/Mason instead of Jennings/Welker.

Its Fantasy Football and technically its considered gambling, with good reason. I've just found that your better off taking a few risks here and there. Some people are comfortable with that and some people arn't, to each his own I suppose.
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Re: Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

Postby petedog9 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 5:47 pm

fair enough....

I agree with your sentiment to an extent and understand your thinking... Most of us on here are pretty hard core when FF is concerned and we do the extra research and work needed to succeed id fantasy. I am also always looking for the next Colston.. Thats why we are in here discussing fantasy football 12 months out of the year.. Well alot of us anyway... I just want to grab my big upside guys after I have filled a solid starting roster from top to bottom with solid picks at every slot. Then I can gamble on upside guys... Most of which go after all of your starting positions have been filled.... thats when I roll the dice looking for boxcars.... ;-D I like to grab those guys late then package them up and trade them for another stud or if and when he does produce, i can trade any excess away for future picks... ;-D
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Re: Let's Talk 7-12 round WR

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 5:49 pm

Another thing I would argue is that one can play matchups (depending on league depth) at the WR3 position and get the 6 or so points that you know Mason's going to get you every week. However, if you hit on one of sleepers, you should be able to destroy 6 points per week. WR is way different from RB in the sense that 70-80 WR get enough playing time where getting 60 yards in a week shouldn't be a big problem. So if you are looking at the waiver wire during the season (which you should be if you grab sleeper WRs and they flop), you can probably dig and find someone who's worth 60 yards on the waiver wire most weeks just by playing matchups. You have a better chance to hit big on that WR off the waiver wire (think Lance Moore) after a few weeks becuase you'll have guys to drop (your failed sleepers), whereas the "safe" team will hold onto their 6 points per week. So I'd say that in a standard-depth league (where about 60 or so WR are drafted), the safety nets aren't really safety nets as much as they are wasted roster spots that feel good for the first half of the season until everyone else in your league finds their team....

Now in a really deep league, I think value gets added to the Masons and Donald Drivers of the world....
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