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go safe or go risk?

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go safe or go risk?

Postby kickureface » Wed Aug 05, 2009 5:19 am

i guess this mainly applies to mid round
round 1-2 doesnt really matter i figure
round 3-4 probably doesnt either
round 5-7 --do you go with very high risk players who can dominate the league possibly or do you go safe picks, like hines ward or cedric benson
what about 8+?

theres a saying early rounds dont matter muhc, winners win from late round picks

this is my 3rd year so i dont really know much in terms of drafting skills so correct me if i made any dumb statements
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Re: go safe or go risk?

Postby Dan Lambskin » Wed Aug 05, 2009 8:13 am

i honestly dont think you'll get a straight answer on this since every player approaches FF differently

personally, i dont take much risk with my early picks. i'm willing to take a few gambles, either on injured guys or RB's who could be a star of the guy in front of them goes down, but i like to balance my risk with a "safe" pick. lets say i take Antonio Bryant as a WR2, well, i'm probably grabbing another top WR3 (like a Hines Ward type) soon after
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Re: go safe or go risk?

Postby programatik » Wed Aug 05, 2009 12:08 pm

For what it's worth, this is my point of view.

I go safe picks over boom/bust all the time. Consistency is the top determining factor in my selection. Ala, westbrook. He consistently puts up top flight points and consistently misses ~3 games a year. I know what I'm getting. This strategy put me as the top average point scorer for my entire season last year. I consistently put up 8 more pts than the league average.

HOWEVER, I also had the toughest schedule. It was a league joke that anyone who played me had a monster week. Those boom/bust players always boomed on programatik Sunday. I've done this for 2 years now and it's pretty much turned out the same each time. Last year I did a little better than the year before. Chances are, I'll get boomed again by someone that gets hot during the playoffs. But from my standpoint, I'll have a better opportunity of my consistent guys getting me a championship than hoping that my guys boom at the right times.
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Re: go safe or go risk?

Postby Vandelay-Ind » Wed Aug 05, 2009 12:55 pm

I hate to sound like a politician, but why not do both? Take a big gamble in round 5 but follow that up with a very safe pick in the next round. Then perhaps take a safe pick followed by a big gamble. You will have the safe guys there to fall back on and maybe a gamble or 2 puts you over the top.
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Re: go safe or go risk?

Postby Dawinner127 » Wed Aug 05, 2009 1:55 pm

Late in the draft is when I'll throw some risky picks out there, but other than that, I normally keep it on the conservative.
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Re: go safe or go risk?

Postby aaawall91 » Wed Aug 05, 2009 1:59 pm

Where ever the value is. Later rounds are more risk though because taking a safe guy in the 11th his hard because chances are he wont end up in your lineup. Where a risky guy could meet his potential and end up starting for you.
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Re: go safe or go risk?

Postby Free Bagel » Wed Aug 05, 2009 2:28 pm

History is littered with too many examples of "safe" picks that turned into just as big of flops as the "risky" ones did for me to cast aside the upside that many of those risky picks provide.
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Re: go safe or go risk?

Postby kickureface » Wed Aug 05, 2009 5:13 pm

Free Bagel wrote:History is littered with too many examples of "safe" picks that turned into just as big of flops as the "risky" ones did for me to cast aside the upside that many of those risky picks provide.

when do you start grabbing your risks though
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Re: go safe or go risk?

Postby Purple1 » Wed Aug 05, 2009 8:27 pm

I think what Free Bagel is saying is that there's really no such thing as a safe pick in ff.



Don't be afraid to take risks, screw ADP and go for the guys you want when you feel they are worth it. You will hit on some guys and you will miss on some but you'll walk out of a draft knowing you did the best you could to get the guys you felt would give you the best shot at a championship. ;-D
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Re: go safe or go risk?

Postby shawngee03 » Thu Aug 06, 2009 1:55 pm

in all 3 of the major sports i do the same....picking guys with established roles and history until the last 3 or so picks(excluding kickers and ctahers who come last) and then go for straight upside.

that way im fine if none of them hit, good if one hits, and awesome if more than one hit.

in baseball one will almost always hit...football not so much. it seems like the random Rb coming out of nowhere always breaks out before the 3 upside Rbs i thought would break out do
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