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Interesting research

Postby northcuttfan » Fri Aug 07, 2009 8:08 pm

So i was really bored so i got all my old fantasy magazines and researched and wrote down on how the rankings from year to year pan out and i started with the 05 projecting to 06 all the way up to this year. in the 4 years i did for the top ten running backs each year at the most only 5 backs did close or a satisfied to their projected stats. here it goes

05 projecting 06
only LT, shaun alexander and portis
06 - 07
LT, LJ,S Jackson and rudi
07-08
LT, Gore,Westy,portis,and addai
08-09
All day Peterson,westy,portis,gore.. and lt was ehh

So.. i guess the point is every year about half the top 10 running backs dont pan out where they should. Whose your 5 fall outs?
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Re: Interesting research

Postby pinebluffracing » Sat Aug 08, 2009 7:49 am

If These are Your Top Ten

AP
Turner
MJD
Forte
SJax
C Johnson
LT
DW
Slaton
Gore



and these are the outside looking in, as far as preseason ratings.
Jacobs, Clinton, Barber, Westy

Players primed to fall out of the top ten either by getting nicked up, or an unexpected stud gets more points(I.e. C johnson or slaton from last year) or just a dip in production from a top ten representative here are my most likely candidates

AP - should maintain top three performance all year
Turner - He should fall to the back half of the top ten, but will remain there.
MJD - i'm worried about this selection. He has swivel and he's physical, but could get nicked up this year. he finishes just outside top ten with 3-4 missed games.
Forte - He's a top three to finish the year
SJax - He should start out hot, but worried about him overall staying on the field with his big cozy contract...OUT
C Johnson - top five rep.
LT - Out
DW - Finishes somewhere between 6-8
Slaton - Out
Gore - he'll play well, but drops out due to some unexpected guys moving ahead of him thru the year.


so who's out. MJD, Sjax, LT, Slaton and Gore
and who moves in their place...

Addia - I.e. DW from last year when he had j stewart on his heels he learned how to be a pro real fast.
Clinton Portis - Still young and a great go-to guy
Westy - surprises and stays healthy
Beanie Well - he wins the starting role, and it pays off big
and finally P Thomas, no reason just a hunch
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Re: Interesting research

Postby dream_017 » Sat Aug 08, 2009 9:21 am

I think you would see less of success rate for WR. You would probably also see a QB or 2 in the top 5 actual that wasn't even drafted
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Re: Interesting research

Postby 011472 » Sat Aug 08, 2009 11:23 am

Using pinebluff's top ten, I believe:

- CJ will fall out because I think Tenn will need to pass more due to a weaker def putting them in a position where they need yards and points late, as well as Lendale grabbing some TDs.
- Turner falls out based on wear and tear and Norwood actually getting involved more.
- DWill falls out because the staff uses Stewart more to determine who is their future back (60/40 split)
- Gore falls out because I couldn't keep him another year and I'll be PO'd if he blows up in the new run-first offense. ;-)

Portis, Westbrook (healthy), Grant and Wells move in.
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