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Draft Strategy For Everyone

Postby BigBlue2005 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 1:58 pm

Hi everyone. This is my first post this season but I would just like to share my strategy for this season with everyone. This will be an indepth guide and I will explain why I think every player is where it is on my list. This is just my opinion I am not trying to act like a know-it-all expert but I have won my money league 2 out of the last 4 years so I feel this strategy has worked enough for me to be confident in posting it for everyone.


First off the RB situation this year is nothing like last year. There are no Chris Johnsons, Matt Forte's or Kevin Smith's. I would advise not wasting a pick until round 9-10 on any rookie RB's.

1. Moreno, Knowshon - The Denver coaching staff has not said anything positive about him. He is way behind on learning the Denver offense and there are two Vets in Lamont Jordan and Correl Buckhalter who are very capable backs in the Denver system.

2.Wells, Beanie - While Wells does have talent, Arizona finished near the bottom in rushing last year. Even worse for Wells is the fact that Tim Hightower will more than likely take goal line carries. Wells will not be the starter in Arizona this year.

I don't really feel that any of the other rookie RB's are worth mentioning as they are definitely not going into starting roles unless the RB1 of the team is injured.

This year there are many players who are going all over the place in mock drafts jumping around by up to 15 positions from draft to draft. The reason I believe this is happening is because of QB changes, Coaching changes, top RBs like Brian Westrbook, Steven Jackson, Ladanian Tomlinson who were veteran staples being injured or hitting 30, and the numerous rbbc situations taking place in the NFL. Add to that fact that there are only a handful of WR's who will give consistent levels of points throughout the season and most people don't know what to do.

Statistically 5 out of every 10 of the top RB picked each year are duds. On the same note usually 4-5 RBs from round 3-6 become top 10 RBs. On the other hand there are generally 6-8 of the top 10 WR's picked each year that barring injury will be in the top 10 by the end of the year as well. My strategy is to form a team that has consistent scorers with 3-4 risky stud or dud picks in rounds 4-8.

It is very possible if you can trade down or land a the 7-10th position in your draft to land 2 of the following WR's Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, Anquan Bolden or Reggie Wayne.

The order I would draft these WR's in is the following

1. Randy Moss - Brady looks back to form
2. Larry Fitzgerald - Weak division, had Kurt Warner throwing to him
3. Calvin Johnson - Culpepper looks good and Johnson should receive lots of garbage yards
4. Andre Johnson - Should do fine as long as he doesn't injure himelf.
5. Greg Jennings - Should continue to get lots of deep balls from Aaron Rogers. Plays in a weak pass defense division.
6. Anquan Bolden - He is a beast and would be a #1 on nearly any other team in the NFL
7. Roddy White - Has a tougher schedule this year but Matt Ryan will be even better this year. The addition of Tony Gonzalez should take some heat off White.
8. Reggie Wayne - Plays in a dome, has Peyton Manning, last year was more than likely a fluke.
9. Marques Colston - If healthy top 5 WR

By drafting 2 quality WR's first, you avoid the complications that come later with less reliable WR's. Fantasy seasons are lost by teams that have 3-4 mediocore WR's and have to play merry go round each week with these players. Often times the ones they start produce 2 points while the ones on the bench produce 20 points. This can quickly get very frustrating and teams that have this kind of inconsistency from their WR's will lose many games they should of won.

By drafting those WR's first you have consistentcy. This year boasts a whole host of RB's that will not be superstars but will get you 15 touches every week. Now imagine the following mock draft

Team 1 ---------------------- Team 2
1. Adrian Peterson ----------- 1.Randy Moss
2. Frank Gore------------------2.Calvin Johnson

Now chances are team 1 puts up maybe 20-30 more points over the season than team 2. But by the 3rd round what WR's and RB's are still remaining?

In the 20 mock drafts I have done Anquan Bolden is the 1st or 2nd pick in the 3rd round every time. So if you didn't land the #1 or #2 draft postion you get stuck with the following WR's

1. Terrel Owens - On a team that sees lots of bad weather and it's TO so he could get himself benched anytime.
2. Wes Welker - has some really good games and some really bad ones
3.Anthony Gonzalez - Decent upside with Peyton and indoor stadium
4. Brandon Marshal - Has all sorts of problems and lost Jay Cutler
5. Roy Williams - unproven for Dallas not even sure if he is capable of being a #1.
6. Vincent Jackson - again another up and down every week. No consistency.
7. Chad Johnson - who knows
8. TJ Housh - on a declining Seattle team
9. Eddie Royal - No Cutler and with Marshal in trouble he could be the number one getting double covered

The list only gets worse from there. Nearly all of these guys will have you playing matchups week to week and getting stuck on roughly half those weeks with players that fail to perform. .

The list of RB's available in round 3

1. Marion Barber - Should bounce back will always be getting 15+ carries
2. Clinton Portis - 15+ carries goal line
3. Brian Westbrook 15+ carries goal line
4. Ryan Grant 15+ carries
5. Kevin Smith 15+ carries goal line
6. Pierre Thomas 15+ carries goal line
7. Lendale White 15 carries goal line
8. Joseph Addia 15+ carries
9. Larry Johnson 15 + carries goal line

Not only will all these RBs have 15+ carries each week, but the way they are going in drafts you can easily pick up 3-4 of these guys. So going back to the mock draft for player 1 and 2...

Team 1 ---------------------- Team 2
1. Adrian Peterson ----------- 1.Randy Moss
2. Frank Gore------------------2.Calvin Johnson

So team 1 now has to pick from the above list of WR's. Lets say he takes Wes Welker and Bradon Marshal. Team 2 takes Marion Barber and Larry Johnson. The teams now look like this


Team One ---------------------- Team 2
1. Adrian Peterson ----------- 1.Randy Moss
2. Frank Gore------------------2.Calvin Johnson
3. Wes Welker ----------------3. Marion Barber
4. Brandon Marshal------------4. Larry Johnson

Now all the WR's on the list will be taken by the time team one gets another pick but half of the RBs on the list will still be available all the way through round 7. Team 2 will be able to select Lendale White in round 5 or 6 Joseph Addia in round 4 or 5.

Now a typical set of scores for team one in a standard non-ppr league would look like the following

Week 1----------------------Week 2-------------Week 3---------------Week 4

Adrian Peterson 15----------20-------------------12---------------------15
Frank Gore 11----------13-------------------15---------------------14
Wes Welker 5-----------14-------------------12----------------------3
Brandon Marshal 10---------3---------------------15--------------------- 6

Those 4 scores will be the typical pattern for Team 1 every 4 weeks. Team one will probably lose 2 out of every 4 games due to one of his unreliable WR's having a bad week and the fact that he has to play matchups each week with players who go from 20 points to 2 points on a week to week basis.

Take team 2 now with top quality WR's and stable RB's that have to get some points simply because they get 15+ carries each week no matter what.

Week 1 -----------------------Week 2-------------Week 3--------------Week 4

Randy Moss 14--------------16-----------------11---------------------9
Calvin Johnson 13--------------15-----------------14--------------------12
Marion Barber 13--------------10-----------------9----------------------11
Larry Johnson 10 --------------11----------------12---------------------13

Team 2 will probably lose 1 out of every 4 games due to the fact that all of his positions produce consistent points and it will be much harder for his players to have dud weeks often.

There are many strategies out there and I am not saying they aren't good too but this is my explanation of how my strategy works and it has been very successful for me in the past. Good luck to everyone in their drafts if this guide is liked I'll post further information on it.
Last edited by BigBlue2005 on Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Draft Strategy For Everyone

Postby mattb47 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 2:13 pm

Why are you only talking about RB/RB and WR/WR starts? It seems as though RB/WR is probably one of the best ways to go right now depending on where you are picking in the rounds. So if you go by your list, why not go ADP/Johnson/Barber/Marshall which is really better than any of the ones you listed to me. I also doubt in the most competitive leagues if you'll see guys like Portis, Barber, Thomas, and Westbrook fall to the third...Portis, Barber, and Westbrook have gone in the 2nd in almost every draft I've been in and Thomas is gaining value more and more it seems.
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Re: Draft Strategy For Everyone

Postby Kensat30 » Fri Aug 14, 2009 3:16 pm

BigBlue2005 wrote:
1. Terrel Owens - On a team that sees lots of bad weather and it's TO so he could get himself benched anytime.
2. Wes Welker - has some really good games and some really bad ones
3.Anthony Gonzalez - Decent upside with Peyton and indoor stadium
4. Brandon Marshal - Has all sorts of problems and lost Jay Cutler
5. Roy Williams - unproven for Dallas not even sure if he is capable of being a #1.
6. Vincent Jackson - again another up and down every week. No consistency.
7. Chad Johnson - who knows
8. TJ Housh - on a declining Seattle team
9. Eddie Royal - No Cutler and with Marshal in trouble he could be the number one getting double covered

The list only gets worse from there. Nearly all of these guys will have you playing matchups week to week and getting stuck on roughly half those weeks with players that fail to perform. .

The list of RB's available in round 3

1. Marion Barber - Should bounce back will always be getting 15+ carries
2. Clinton Portis - 15+ carries goal line
3. Brian Westbrook 15+ carries goal line
4. Ryan Grant 15+ carries
5. Kevin Smith 15+ carries goal line
6. Pierre Thomas 15+ carries goal line
7. Lendale White 15 carries goal line
8. Joseph Addia 15+ carries
9. Larry Johnson 15 + carries goal line



Two problems with your analysis here. In the average 12 team non-PPR league I have a hard time seeing one if not all of Barber, Portis, Westbrook, and possibly even Pierre Thomas being available in round 3. A lot of these guys won't make it into the third round at all and those who do make it could just as easily get taken with the 1st or 2nd pick of that round like you mentioned Anquan Boldin was being taken.

Narrow the list down to:
Ryan Grant
Kevin Smith
Lendale White
Addai
LArry Johnson

And I'm not necessarily buying any of those guys in the 3rd round of my draft outside of Ryan Grant. Grant may go early in round 3 as well, similar to where I expect Pierre Thomas to go in the majority of drafts as we get closer to the season. Instead of forcing myself to choose one of those guys in the third, I will keep my options flexible and take who is left in the 4th or 5th. Include Parker, Moreno, Wells, Ray Rice, etc. on that list and we are talking. There are plenty more options available than what you have listed and they will be around even later than the 3rd.
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Second point, I think you are being overgenerous with the RBs available in the average 3rd round, you are at the same time underestimating the average WRs available. The traditional first round is maybe 10 RBs and 2 non RBs. The traditional second round is maybe 5 RBs and the rest WRs and QBs. The third round mirrors the 2nd round with potentially even less RBs being taken.

Break it down:
1st round: RB10, WR2
2nd round: RB15, WR7, QB2
3rd round: RB19, WR14, QB3

Assuming that your top 9 are the consensus top9 WRs being taken, on average I would estimate that 2 of them are lasting into the 3rd round. In reality it may go either way. People may draft more QBs early. A TE could go off the board. Different WRs are being taken. More RBs are taken. More Wrs are taken. There is no real way to anticipate how the draft will play out until the middle of the 2nd or end of the 2nd round. Chances are a RB/RB team with go WR third, a WR/WR will go RB third, but any other team can go whatever direction they want. With all that said, I think that even in the worst case scenario when those RBs fall and those WRs all get taken, I think several of the players you listed hold value.

-TO has a good shot at 10 TDs yet again and has traditionally been a big value at that point in the draft. Buffalo is said to be working almost exclusively out of the no-huddle offense in training camp and I think the coaches there have come to the decision to let Edwards take the reigns in that offense. Both of their RBs can catch passes and I think with an attacking philsophy (similar to what Tony Romo has run the past couple years) TO should be a money pick well worth a third. The guy is getting dinged because he is old (hasn't shown his age IMO) and his new situation (look at his first years on other clubs). TO is not necessarily my target here, but I think the guy is a very solid pick.

Roy Williams is the popular black sheep, but I see him putting up Dwayne Bowe like numbers (2008) on the level of targets he should receive. Roy Williams has always been a talented guy, he has just been injured and in a bad system a lot of years. I'm really starting to come around on him in the 4th round where he generally goes so that tells me that I think he has a 3rd round value. Talented guy in an unknown situation = breakout potential. Its too easy to call this guy a bust and observe that TO is a better player, but TO had 15 TD potential in Dallas every single year he was there. Roy Williams could easily put up 10 or more if he stays healthy and gets the same level of targets in the redzone.

Chad Johnson is a steal anywhere past the 3rd round IMO. His expectations are similar to what they have been over the past 5 or 6 seasons IMO and he used to go in the 2nd round of those drafts. If you didn't take into account week to week varience, Ocho lived up to his ADP almost every year when looking at year end numbers. This guy should be a target at WR2 for every owner in the league, yet somehow I'm on of the few guys that has made it my priority to target this guy anytime after 4 rounds in every single league I've been in.

TJ Houshmanzadeh is similar to Owens in that he is a TD producer. Watch as Hasselbeck turns this guy into the next Plaxico Burress. If you've been reading the training camp rapid reports, you will known that Houshmanzadeh is catching multiple TD passes at every 11 on 11 redzone drill out there. Talented player in a new situation = potential breakout player.

Eddie Royal is the best young WR in the NFL. How can people underrate a player that had 90 receptions as a rookie, is the one true star at Broncos training camp, with Marshall gimpy coming off surgery and an additional injury and legal troubles, and playing on a team with the worst defense in the league, one of the best schedules, and in a freaking spread offense, base 3 WR philosophy, that should pass 600 times this season, AND is run by a short armed QB who was hand picked to get the ball in Royals hands is beyond me. Eddie Royal should lead the NFL in receptions this year. And unlike Wes Welker, he has the potential to be the #1 WR on his offense with those catches. I like other players ahead of the guy, but he should carry a 3rd round price tag as well.
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The only elite WR theory I can get on top of is Randy Moss as a 1st round pick this year. Larry Fitzgerald hasn't shown true blow up potential and he has the old QB and curses working against him. Andre Johnson doesn't score enough. Calvin Johnson has way too much going on in his situation that even with that kind of talent he carries a lot of risk. I think you can get similar production to all of these guys with a Steve Smith, Colston, Boldin etc. later into the 2nd and 3rd rounds therefore eliminating any type of benefit from taking that second WR that early. Once you make that second WR pick you lose a whole lot of flexibility if a RB run does occur. If you want to gain a potentially "real" advantage, why not draft a Tom Brady instead? If the RBs get tapped early, take another WR and then load up on the discards at RB in rounds 4-8. If you draft a Moreno, Parker, Benson, Julius Jones, Willis Mcgahee combo, something might stick.

If I can land Moss/Brady from a middle pick out of the first two rounds, I feel I can turn that team into a dominant force with the RBs I will be selecting in the next 4 or 5 rounds. I don't feel the same way except maybe Moss/Calvin and that only works if Calvin elevates himself to yet another level in 2009.
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Re: Draft Strategy For Everyone

Postby dupree » Sat Aug 15, 2009 7:55 am

Threads like these are why I lurk around here...nothing to add as I don't have the depth of knowledge. ;-D
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Re: Draft Strategy For Everyone

Postby BigBlue2005 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:15 pm

I'm sorry I failed to mention that this strategy was designed for a 10 team league not a 12 team league. So the rankings would work, just not in a 12 team league. Sorry for the confusion.
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Re: Draft Strategy For Everyone

Postby DemonDeacon » Sat Aug 15, 2009 3:58 pm

my main money league is a PPR (which i love btw) and even with the xtra advantage to WRs i still think that your strategy is a bit extreme. I still think that at least one RB should be taken in the top 2 rounds no exceptions. I dont have the stats so dont quote me on this, but if my memory serves me correctly a rookie running back has been a top 10 RB over the last 8-10 years or so. Again dont quote that but i think thats close to being right. That being said i agree that the tookie RB talent doesnt look as good as the last few years, but ill put money down that at least one or 2 of them are top 10 backs. Chris Johnson and Forte were drafted as #4 RBs for most and Slaton wasnt even drafted in many leagues (got him in round 14 btw :P ) theres always a gem out there. i also feel along with many others that depth at RB is important because of the beatings they recieve week to week. im always more nervous to see my RB get hit than my WRs. Which would leave me back to considering RB/RB over RB/WR even. Back to WRs it depends on if you start 2 or 3. But i find its still easier to pick up a WR to fill in week to week than it is to find a RB to fill in. Also what league let Westy last till the 3rd round!?!?!?! thats crazy...

When it comes down to it for me, Ive always kept to one and only one draft strategy. And it ironically doesnt include the RB/RB or RB/WR or WR/WR ideology, simply put i draft who i think is the best value on the board, regaurdless of position. Ive drafted RB/WR and RB/RB alike (never WR/WR, at least not yet) and this year ill be drafting 10th again and WR/WR is a very real possibility especially if the first round sees 9 RBs go a head of me.

Now that i've said my peice I'd like to let you know this is a very good post. Great supporting info and opinions are justly based :P very good job.
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Re: Draft Strategy For Everyone

Postby mattb47 » Sat Aug 15, 2009 4:45 pm

BigBlue2005 wrote:I'm sorry I failed to mention that this strategy was designed for a 10 team league not a 12 team league. So the rankings would work, just not in a 12 team league. Sorry for the confusion.


With 12 team leagues really being the standard...I guess I fail to see why you would want to put in all that time to do a big thought out draft strategy for a much less common 10 team league? It really will fail to apply in most all competitive leagues which they have on this site.
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Re: Draft Strategy For Everyone

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Sat Aug 15, 2009 5:10 pm

This was a nice attempt, but it looks like you bit off more than you could chew.

With different league sizes and scoring formats you really can't come up with a single draft strategy that's going to work for everyone. But some of your analysis was pretty well done. You did a good job consolidating a wide amount of generally accepted fantasy knowledge for this years draft.

The biggest problem was that which Mattb pointed out when he said, "It seems as though RB/WR is probably one of the best ways to go right now." As such, it's strange that you chose to ignore that approach entirely.
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Re: Draft Strategy For Everyone

Postby benb18a » Sun Aug 16, 2009 4:56 am

Even though I have made it known I'm a fan of the WR/WR strategy on the turn this year(which will be tested in a pretty competitive 12-team league, with insight into only two of the owners' philosophies, in a draft this afternoon) there is one pretty big advantage to getting one of each in the first two rounds. This doesn't apply to this year in specific, but it really allows the rest of your draft to be pretty flexible, instead of thinking "ok, I HAVE to go RB in three of the next four rounds" to play catch up, and potentially miss out on some pretty nice value at the other positions. If you're playing in an experienced league, the RBs will probably be dried up by the time it gets back to you.
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Re: Draft Strategy For Everyone

Postby iky » Sun Aug 16, 2009 6:06 am

Interesting theory, I almost like it, but it just irks me how he misspelled "Boldin"
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