I have the 8th pick in a 12 man league. Would it be suicide to draft Brady 8th then Moss 12th? Its all or nothing with this strategy I understand that. I don't expect the same exact #s from two years ago but pretty dam close. There isn't a team in fantasy that didn't win when having them both two years ago. I will be shallow at RB I understand that but if there is another season like 2 years ago I win right?
We start 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 flex (rb, wr, te) D, K
Heavy TD and bonus points for 300 passing, 100 rushing/receiving.
I definitely do not like it. You are getting no value by picking Brady in the first round. The whole point to drafting is getting the most value at each pick. You are living in the past, dreaming about a season two years ago.
I'm just saying there isn't another QB or WR that has potential to even come near stats from 2 years ago. I'm living in the past 2 seasons ago not saying Barry Sanders is going to lead the NFL in rushing. I'm posing the question if they come anywhere near those stats you win your league having both of them right?
Well...first off, if this is something you really want to do knowing full well the risks involved then do it...it really is your team after all. But nonetheless I'll give my thoughts on it and you can take them for what you will.
The reason I probably wouldn't do this (really just the Brady in the 1st part as Moss is perfectly fine going in the 2nd) is that unless Brady has another season close to his record breaking year (there's a reason it was a record breaking season too...doesn't happen much) then he won't be worth that first round pick. That's essentially what you'd be banking on here. If he doesn't have that 45 TD season or something and Moss doesn't explode, then you've just got a good QB1 that won't be too much higher than someone like Aaron Rodgers or something that you can get in the 5-6 rounds most often.
So if you're comfortable thinking Brady will put up those kinds of astronomical numbers again, then go for it. I personally think it's extremely unlikely especially given that he's coming back from major surgery. It's not that I don't know that he could physically do it, but I don't think that NE coaching staff is foolish enough to make him drop back for the sheer amount of passes he would have to attempt to do so and risk him getting hit more. You take away the "running up the score" TDs from his big year (36 of his TDs came when they were ahead) then he doesn't break those records and do all he did that year. That's closer to what I think you'd be looking at for his absolute upside is in the upper 30 TD range this season just because I don't see the Patriots getting up big in games and leaving Brady exposed by continuing to throw...especially with how much weaker their offensive line is getting. Just seems like something that's unlikely to happen to me.
There's no doubt Brady will be a top 5 QB if he stays healthy most of the season. And there's no doubt Moss will be a top 5 receiver if that happens. But putting your eggs in one basket is very risky. What happens on some of the weeks where the Patriots (yes, they're mortal) lose and Brady and Moss don't do anything significant? You'll be screwed for that week because both of your top two players didn't do crap.
You can't draft these guys and expect them to blow up again. Looking at Brady's last 4 (healthy) seasons, he threw 28, 26, 24, and then 50 TD's, passing 4,000 yards twice. Compare that to Peyton Manning, who threw 26, 27, and 29 td's the three season's before he threw 49. Following the 49, Manning has yet to get to 35 again (28, 31, 31, 27). In other words, great players blow up some times; but most other years, you're just going to get another year of consistent production (which obviously is a good thing, but not if you're looking for sleeper value).
Realistically, you're looking at 4,000 + 25td's from Brady and 1,100 + 12td's from Moss. That's good production, and it definitely won't be suicide taking those players in those spots. But again that's assuming Brady stays healthy all 16 games. In my opinion, it would be more beneficial to draft a Slaton/Gore with the 8th, and then swing back and grab a Portis/Barber/Jacobs with your 2nd round pick.
I was considering doing something like that if I had the 10th pick but with the 8th you may be able to grab Fitzgerald then in the 2nd you can grab a Jacobs or Barber. 3rd you can go either RB/WR and the 4th as long as your league isn't QB crazy Rivers/Warner/Rodgers should be available. Either one of those 3 paired with Fitzgerald should put up similar numbers to Brady/Moss. But this way you're not stuck with a bad RB corp.
I think that in theory it could work out, but look at a few other factors, there division, two years ago it was a horrible division. Miami had a 1-15 season and was rebuilding, NY Jets had a bad season and there defense was nothing near what it is today and Buffalo was bad, they are still the weakest team of the bunch, but have a pretty solid defense. So right there is 6 games that are much tougher than 2 years ago. Another thing to look at is what other teams are they playing outside of there division? They could have played a very weak division, so there are many factors that go into how that big season came about. And to re-state it the reason it was a record breaking year is because it doesn't happen very often. Too me I would rather have a well balanced roster and not depend on two players from one team to be your big guns, they have a off game and you are in trouble. Good luck.