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DRAFT QB?

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Re: DRAFT QB?

Postby mattUTD20 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 12:14 pm

Goody wrote:
mattUTD20 wrote:Oh boy here we go with this debate again. A 6 point TD DOES make the QB position as a whole more valuable in relation to the other positions. It is not that big of a difference but it does matter.

Goody wrote:The same as if passing TDs are worth 500000 pts.... Changing the value of passing TDs does not change the rankings of QBs to other positions. The only time a QB should be elevated in value is if the starting requirements are 2 QB. ;-D


I hope you are kidding with this. Lets say both of our QBs average 300 yards a game but my QB averages 1.01 TDs a game and yours averages 1 TD a game. That 5000 point difference is a lot bigger than anything the rest of your team can make up assuming the rest of the scoring is standard. I could start the QB and bench the rest of my team and still pound your team into the dust.

If you can't see how increasing point values for a stat specific to one position doesn't increase that position in value relative to the other positions, then there is just no hope for you.


What happened in 2007 when I drafted Brady in the 7th and guys were grabbing Manning in the 2nd round? I believe Brady averaged more TDs per game even though he wasn't "projected" to at draft time.

Who is to say that it won't happen this year with a QB drafted in the 7th? Changing the point value should not warrant drafting a QB any earlier in terms of value for the QB position. You still draft the guys in the same place based on your projections for them simply because they are "projections"....


The value of a QB relative to each other has nothing to do with this. The fact is you are more likely to end up with a better QB the sooner you draft one. Period. The fact that a player outperforms their ADP has absolutely nothing to do with this debate. The fact is in your example, I wouldn't draft any other position besides QB. If the draft was 16 rounds, I would draft 16 quarterbacks because landing the top QB means I will probably win every week just on that one player alone. And I could still platoon quarterbacks if I wanted. There is absolutely no reason to draft any other position besides QB because they cannot possibly do anything to close the gap between the best QB and the second best QB.
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Re: DRAFT QB?

Postby Dan Lambskin » Tue Aug 18, 2009 12:19 pm

joejlitz wrote:
Dan Lambskin wrote:not any sooner than i would if they were worth 4

I would and I do. When passing TDs are worth the same as rushing/receiving TDs, that makes the QB more valuable than the RB/WR position. A star QB is going to throw 30+ TDs on the year. A star RB may get 15 TDs on the year. My draft strategy in my 6-pt TD league is to grab the top RB I can in the first, top-WR I can in the 2nd, and then look to grab Manning or Brady if still available in the 3rd. If not, then I target Rodgers in the 4th or 5th (I gotta do more mocks to see where these guys are actually going, but you get the idea).

The other benefit to this is that in my $$ league, weekly high score is awarded $25. Having a consistent, sure-fire, stud at those 3 positions goes very far towards ensuring your competitive for that prize each week. And a QB who can regularly throw 2TDs each week and often throw 3 TDs? That's money! RBs and WRs can't compete with that.


i guess we can just agree to disagree...without getting too stat heavy i dont think 30+ TD's is anywhere near a lock. high 20's, sure, but 30?
2008 - 3 QB's there 30+ Brees (34), Rivers (34), Warner (30). i'm guessing none of them went before round 3

2007 Brady (50), Romo (36), Big Ben (32), Manning (31) again...Manning was probably the only one who was a 1st or 2nd round pick...the rest probably went 4+. also Brady, Manning and Romo all likely went in rds 1 or 2 in 2008...i'd say that didnt turn out so well

2006 Manning with 31

2005 Palmer with 32

2004 Manning (49), Culpepper (39...and how'd he do in 2005?), McNabb (31), Favre (30)

so yeah, having a QB throw 30+ TD's in a 6 pt per TD league is nice, but the chance that the guy you take in the 2nd round will actually do it isnt all that great, not to mention you cant find a guy 5 rounds later that can come within a few TD's. also not to mention you can take 2 or 3 QB's and platoon them based on matchups

anyway...i'm too lazy to do it, but i'd be curious to see a study on the following
Top QB performers each year and their ADP, and then following years rankings and ADP
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Re: DRAFT QB?

Postby Goody » Tue Aug 18, 2009 12:27 pm

mattUTD20 wrote:
Goody wrote:
mattUTD20 wrote:Oh boy here we go with this debate again. A 6 point TD DOES make the QB position as a whole more valuable in relation to the other positions. It is not that big of a difference but it does matter.



I hope you are kidding with this. Lets say both of our QBs average 300 yards a game but my QB averages 1.01 TDs a game and yours averages 1 TD a game. That 5000 point difference is a lot bigger than anything the rest of your team can make up assuming the rest of the scoring is standard. I could start the QB and bench the rest of my team and still pound your team into the dust.

If you can't see how increasing point values for a stat specific to one position doesn't increase that position in value relative to the other positions, then there is just no hope for you.


What happened in 2007 when I drafted Brady in the 7th and guys were grabbing Manning in the 2nd round? I believe Brady averaged more TDs per game even though he wasn't "projected" to at draft time.



Who is to say that it won't happen this year with a QB drafted in the 7th? Changing the point value should not warrant drafting a QB any earlier in terms of value for the QB position. You still draft the guys in the same place based on your projections for them simply because they are "projections"....


The value of a QB relative to each other has nothing to do with this. The fact is you are more likely to end up with a better QB the sooner you draft one. Period. The fact that a player outperforms their ADP has absolutely nothing to do with this debate. The fact is in your example, I wouldn't draft any other position besides QB. If the draft was 16 rounds, I would draft 16 quarterbacks because landing the top QB means I will probably win every week just on that one player alone. And I could still platoon quarterbacks if I wanted. There is absolutely no reason to draft any other position besides QB because they cannot possibly do anything to close the gap between the best QB and the second best QB.


Please show me facts where drafting a QB earlier more than likely guarantees that you land a better QB? How often do QBs end up ranked where they were drafted preseason?

Where was Brees drafted last year relative to his end of year ranking? Where was Rogers drafted relative to his end of year ranking?

Thank you very much!
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Re: DRAFT QB?

Postby mattUTD20 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 12:33 pm

Goody wrote:
mattUTD20 wrote:
Goody wrote:
What happened in 2007 when I drafted Brady in the 7th and guys were grabbing Manning in the 2nd round? I believe Brady averaged more TDs per game even though he wasn't "projected" to at draft time.



Who is to say that it won't happen this year with a QB drafted in the 7th? Changing the point value should not warrant drafting a QB any earlier in terms of value for the QB position. You still draft the guys in the same place based on your projections for them simply because they are "projections"....


The value of a QB relative to each other has nothing to do with this. The fact is you are more likely to end up with a better QB the sooner you draft one. Period. The fact that a player outperforms their ADP has absolutely nothing to do with this debate. The fact is in your example, I wouldn't draft any other position besides QB. If the draft was 16 rounds, I would draft 16 quarterbacks because landing the top QB means I will probably win every week just on that one player alone. And I could still platoon quarterbacks if I wanted. There is absolutely no reason to draft any other position besides QB because they cannot possibly do anything to close the gap between the best QB and the second best QB.


Please show me facts where drafting a QB earlier more than likely guarantees that you land a better QB? How often do QBs end up ranked where they were drafted preseason?

Where was Brees drafted last year relative to his end of year ranking? Where was Rogers drafted relative to his end of year ranking?

Thank you very much!


Now you've got all my coworkers looking at me funny because I am laughing hysterically to myself in my cubicle. You are missing the point here, so just answer this one question for me. In a league with QBs that get a HALF MILLION points for TDs, would you or would you not take a QB with your first round pick?
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Re: DRAFT QB?

Postby dream_017 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 1:00 pm

mattUTD20 wrote:
Now you've got all my coworkers looking at me funny because I am laughing hysterically to myself in my cubicle. You are missing the point here, so just answer this one question for me. In a league with QBs that get a HALF MILLION points for TDs, would you or would you not take a QB with your first round pick?

OK, first of all, no league has 500,000 points per TD. The difference we are talking about is 4 to 6 (a difference of 2). When broken dow to you 1.01 vs 1 - it has virtually no difference
6 pts - 6.06 vs 6.0
4 pts - 4.04 vs 4.0


I'm pretty sure my RBs will outscore you by more than 1 yard in both cases (.1 points per yard)
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Re: DRAFT QB?

Postby moochman » Tue Aug 18, 2009 1:04 pm

[quote="Goody"][quote="mattUTD20"]Please show me facts where drafting a QB earlier more than likely guarantees that you land a better QB? How often do QBs end up ranked where they were drafted preseason?

I agree 100%. That is, if I could draft my team after the season was over. I could pick my D and PK then grab Rodgers and Rivers, DAW, Slaton, and Turner as my RBs, and Roddy White, Antonio Bryant, and Royal as my WRs. Problem is, I have to draft before these players have played.
So, in answer to your question, drafting a QB early will give you much better odds than drafting one later. Brady, Manning, Brees. If I choose one of those, I feel real good about having one of the top QBs by years end. Big Ben, the other Manning, and Culter? Now I don't feel nearly as good about. But I could wait to draft them. In a league that rewards TDs, a QB like Brady who has a floor of 25-30, and ceiling of 50 is way more valuable than so crapshoot pick in the lower rounds.
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Re: DRAFT QB?

Postby 2ksports » Tue Aug 18, 2009 1:19 pm

Drafting a QB early is a mistake. You can shuffle 2-3 avg QBs vs bad defenses and get the same net result. QBs are like defenses in leagues where you can only play 1 QB, except rather than get them off waivers each week, you just pick 2 decent ones near the end of the draft (Edwards & Hasselbeck) and shuffle them vs whichever pass defense is worse.
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Re: DRAFT QB?

Postby mattUTD20 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 1:26 pm

dream_017 wrote:
mattUTD20 wrote:
Now you've got all my coworkers looking at me funny because I am laughing hysterically to myself in my cubicle. You are missing the point here, so just answer this one question for me. In a league with QBs that get a HALF MILLION points for TDs, would you or would you not take a QB with your first round pick?

OK, first of all, no league has 500,000 points per TD. The difference we are talking about is 4 to 6 (a difference of 2). When broken dow to you 1.01 vs 1 - it has virtually no difference
6 pts - 6.06 vs 6.0
4 pts - 4.04 vs 4.0


I'm pretty sure my RBs will outscore you by more than 1 yard in both cases (.1 points per yard)


That was his example not mine. I was just pointing out that some people think the amount of a passing TD has absolutely zero effect on where a QB is drafted which is clearly false. I made it clear that the difference between a 6 pt TD and a 4 pt TD matters but it is not that important. Not important enough to shift QBs in ADP to significantly alter your draft strategy.

The 1.01 to 1 average comparison was just used for dramatic effect to show how ludicrous it was to think that scoring that high doesn't affect any thing else. The effect isn't quite that small but it is not nearly enough to alter how you approach your draft.
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Re: DRAFT QB?

Postby Guru13 » Tue Aug 18, 2009 1:34 pm

2ksports wrote:Drafting a QB early is a mistake. You can shuffle 2-3 avg QBs vs bad defenses and get the same net result. QBs are like defenses in leagues where you can only play 1 QB, except rather than get them off waivers each week, you just pick 2 decent ones near the end of the draft (Edwards & Hasselbeck) and shuffle them vs whichever pass defense is worse.

I have to say I totally agree with this lad.
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Re: DRAFT QB?

Postby Goody » Tue Aug 18, 2009 2:11 pm

mattUTD20 wrote:
dream_017 wrote:
mattUTD20 wrote:
Now you've got all my coworkers looking at me funny because I am laughing hysterically to myself in my cubicle. You are missing the point here, so just answer this one question for me. In a league with QBs that get a HALF MILLION points for TDs, would you or would you not take a QB with your first round pick?

OK, first of all, no league has 500,000 points per TD. The difference we are talking about is 4 to 6 (a difference of 2). When broken dow to you 1.01 vs 1 - it has virtually no difference
6 pts - 6.06 vs 6.0
4 pts - 4.04 vs 4.0


I'm pretty sure my RBs will outscore you by more than 1 yard in both cases (.1 points per yard)


That was his example not mine. I was just pointing out that some people think the amount of a passing TD has absolutely zero effect on where a QB is drafted which is clearly false. I made it clear that the difference between a 6 pt TD and a 4 pt TD matters but it is not that important. Not important enough to shift QBs in ADP to significantly alter your draft strategy.

The 1.01 to 1 average comparison was just used for dramatic effect to show how ludicrous it was to think that scoring that high doesn't affect any thing else. The effect isn't quite that small but it is not nearly enough to alter how you approach your draft.


Matt....it was extreme example yes. Of course most leagues will not score passing TDs more than 6 pts. I just don't get the number of post that asks this very question about drafting a QB early because passing TDs are worth 6pts. Of course grabbing one of the top 3 in a 500000 /passing td league would increase your chances of winning. All I was trying to say is that it is not a guarantee. Those folks that drafted Brady in the first last year know what I am talking about. Increasing TDs from 4 to 6 pts do not change where I rank QBs. It does not change their value versus other positions (RBs and WRs) IMO.
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