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kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

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kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Aug 19, 2009 12:54 pm

Discussing the top2: Tom Brady and Drew Brees are the blue chip QB prospects this year. I think either one of them is a fine pick in the 2nd round, and both of them are likely to be difference makers for you team. I personally have Tom Brady slotted in as a first round pick as I believe the upside is well worth the additional risk. It's not often that you can take a QB in the first round without chasing stats from the previous year, but I think Tom Brady is in a situation where he can literally carry a team to the playoffs on his back. And this year, I'm seeing enough value fall at RB allowing for the "loss" of a first round pick to the QB position when trying to fill out a roster and drafting solid early backups.

I think pairing Randy Moss and Tom Brady is a fine strategy this year in the 1st and 2nd rounds. However, at this point with Brady's ADP rising by the day, it is unlikely that either Brady or Moss falls that far into the 2nd round if at all. My strategy if I chose to employ it, would most likely be to draft Brady first and then hoping other owners select Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and possibly even Calvin Johnson ahead of me allowing Moss to fall. If you don't have one of the last picks in the first round though, this is an unlikely strategy. You don't go wrong with Moss in the first round as a standalone pick, but I'm starting to believe that Brady should rate higher on the "difference maker" scale as a non-RB. I start thinking about the Brady/Moss option somewhere in the middle of the first round. At this point the RBs I would 100% take ahead of both Brady and Moss are only three: Peterson, Tomlinson, and Williams.
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Discussing the top10: I think Both Rodgers and Manning are good picks in the 4th round or later. You may actually see one of them fall that far and at that point I forgo a WR2 and snap them up. Depending on the league, you might want to take these guys in the third round where they normally go. I don't think either player is a difference maker this year, but at the same time they are the best shots you have at a top5 option that is not putting you that far behind Brady and Brees when you're matched up. Anybody in the top10 tier has realistic 4000/30 potential, and I rank them basically based on my gut telling me how likely it is they can reach that mark. The target in this range consists almost solely of Carson Palmer. The guy is falling at least two rounds farther than he should IMO (compare the ADPs to the other players I have ranked around him), while Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan are both solid fall back option if you miss out on Palmer. Don't get caught waiting to grab too much value, I want at least one guy in this range to end up on my team, preferrable two guys. Other likely targets may include Tony Romo and Donovan McNabb in the 6th. This year I am loving me a Carson Palmer/Matt Ryan or even a Tony Romo/Matt Schaub type combo. The price is really not that high if the picks fall right. You're looking at possibly an 8th and a 9th round pick for two QBs, or realtisically a 6th and an 8th. I see a dropoff at the WR position in both of those ranges and the tail-end of the high value middle round RBs are also starting to fall off. The key value position in these rounds other than QB is TE, but I also feel there is a lot of late value at TE and that position can be sacrificed if need be. A 6th-8th round pick for a safe top10 QB candidate is worth losing out on a WR3, a RB4, or a TE1.
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Discussing the top20: These are my high upside backups tier. I think any of these guys have the potential to be surprise players that outperform anybody but the top2 blue chip guys and I think all of them have a very stable hold on their job which won't lead to an outright QB competition. Matt Hasselbeck is my #1 target in this tier as I think he has the best chance of success in a proven system, with his new receiving targets, and a healthly recovery from the back injury. Hasselbeck is the type of guy who has come back before and it should be no surprise to see Hasselbeck end up in the top5 QBs at years end earning him another (third?) bounceback, surprise fantasy QB finish. Eli Manning is an underappreciated guy that is consistently solid at around 3500/23 every year and makes a good safe pick that ensure you are not falling behind too much each week. Trent Edwards is a cheap high upside guy in this tier now that he has Owens to bolster his TD numbers and the offense is shifting to a more pass heavy scheme. Jason Campbell is somewhat of a forgotten man, but I think this year his two rookie WRs from last year start to make their presence felt (both Thomas and Kelly seem to be realizing some of their potential), and with Santana Moss seeing less coverage and Cooley rebounding this is a surprisingly good situation for Campbell.

A lot of people may disagree with my placement of Kurt Warner in this range of players, but I feel that he is a much riskier pick than the top10 QBs and there is a high probability that he does not finish the season. If you've missed my comments in other threads there are several reason why I don't rank Warner highly this year: 1) Age 2) injury history especially with concussions 3)current surgery and recovery from 4)history of missing games and losing his job to backups 5) Super Bowl curse 6) Beanie Wells 7)loss of Haley "spread offense" coordinator 8)Fitzgerald madden curse 9)High draft pick backup QB 10)Whisenhunt has a history of running the ball at the goalline 11)Tim Hightower has a style suited for goalline running. The list goes on and on and on. Sure Warner could repeat what he did last year, but do you want to bet on a guy whos other 16 game finish this decade was back in 2001? People ranking this guy in the top5 are out of their minds; upside is an important factor in fantasy football, but to ignore risk is folly.
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Discussing the last draftable QBS: I think all of these guys either will have a competition for their job at some point in the season or are in an offense that will severely limit their production. I don't necessarily want anyone in this tier on my team, but if I feel unsure about my QB situation I might take any of these guys as a QB3 near the end of my draft. Orton and Culpepper are my high upside guys from this range, but after the first preseason game I have significantly downgraded Orton (job security to Simms) and Culpepper (Stafford showed enough). Based on ADP, Culpepper is my likely QB3 with Russell or Collins as nice backup options. A guy a might take a little earlier than the rest is Brady Quinn. Quinn has upside written all over him if Braylon Edwards gets his stuff together. Cleveland is going nowhere with that running game, they have a good slate of matchups, and I've liked what I've seen from the guy over the past two years moving the ball down the field and extending drives. Still not confident in this guy as a QB2 though. Those are the only three guys I will potentially take before the last couple of rounds.

Stay away from Jets, Chiefs, Bucs, and 49ers QBs this year. You take a QB from one of these teams and you are looking at a very good chance at a wasted roster spot IMO.


real rank (ADP rank)
ADP taken from fantasyfootballcalculator.com (looking for a site for ADP info from REAL drafts)
green = likely targets
red = unlikely targets

1. Tom Brady (QB2, 2.04)
2. Drew Brees (QB1, 2.03)
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3. Aaron Rodgers (QB4, 4.01)
4. Peyton Manning (QB3, 3.03)
5. Tony Romo (QB7, 5.10)
6. Carson Palmer (QB11, 7.12)
7. Matt Ryan (QB10, 6.12)

8. Donovan McNabb (QB8, 5.12)
9. Phillip Rivers (QB5, 4.09)
10. Matt Schaub (QB9, 6.12)
-----
11. Matt Hasselbeck (QB15, 9.11)
12. Jay Cutler (QB12, 8.02)
13. Eli Manning (QB16, 10.10)
14. Ben Roethlisberger (QB13, 9.05)
15. Kurt Warner (QB6, 5.02)
16. Trent Edwards (QB17, 11.01)
17. Brett Favre (est.~ QB20, 12.01)
18. David Garrard (QB20, 12.01)
19. Jake Delhomme (QB19, 12.01)
20. Jason Campbell (QB28, 14.03)
-----
21. Brady Quinn (QB23, 13.07)
22. Kyle Orton (QB18, 11.02)
23. Daunte Culpepper (QB30+, 15.01+)
24. Joe Flacco (QB22, 12.11)
25. Jemarcus Russell (QB30+, 15.01+)
26. Kerry Collins (QB30+, 15.01+)
27. Chad Pennington (QB25, 13.10)
28. Marc Bulger (QB27, 14.02)
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Re: kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

Postby sirchadwick1 » Wed Aug 19, 2009 1:40 pm

Very informative write-up! I applaud you for this one and agree with you on many points for sure.

While I'm not targeting Brady or Brees, I am most definitely after the value with McNabb, Ryan, Schaub, or Romo. Hopefully I won't have to reach for them, but if QB's fly off the board I will.

It's not worth getting stuck with a combo like Cutler/Roethlisberger in my 6 pt ALL TD league.

I am totally with you on Warner this year and I believe he'll take Fitz down a notch w/ him if he goes down (likely, when you look at his previous number of games played for the season).

Avoid him unless he falls far down... unlikely, so let the uneducated grab him.

Not sure I would put Rivers back so far though. He is a very smart QB and learns from every mistake. I think he can prove he's worth the 5th round pick this year w/ LT healthy.

I'm also targeting Hasselbeck late because I feel as though Seattle will have it together this year and he'll rebound as a top 10 QB.

Thanks for taking the time to post this.

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Re: kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Aug 19, 2009 1:58 pm

sirchadwick1 wrote:Not sure I would put Rivers back so far though. He is a very smart QB and learns from every mistake. I think he can prove he's worth the 5th round pick this year w/ LT healthy.


=CHAD=


Rivers won't get enough attempts to become an elite option. Look at his numbers the last three years: 460, 460, and 478 attempts. Very low number of attempts. And outside of last year his numbers reflect those attempts. We saw the same thing when Drew Brees was in San Diego. The upside is limited to any player that isn't getting the ball as much as his peers. Even with an elite option like Gates (my #1 TE), a deep threat in Vincent Jackson, and a bunch of other options in the passing game including a very underrated Chambers, the Chargers will still have a very balanced offense. They have a combo of Tomlinson and Sproles to run the football and that is just not something Norv Turner will want to get away from. Turner has a history of getting stud production out of his RBs and I think he has the pieces there to continue that tradition this year.

Bottomline, I have a hard time seeing San Diego (by far the best team in their division both defensively and offensively) getting into a heavy passing mode and ignoring the run game. They should be able to control a lot of clock this year while still scoring a lot of points (mostly via Tomlinson IMO). Of course both Tomlinson and Sproles are solid RBs catching the ball out of the backfield so that should boost Rivers stats/efficiency, but again even last year with Sproles getting a lot more playing time than he will this year (~5 TDs on 30 catches), Rivers still had less than 500 attempts and was only able to finish as a high end QB1 due to his insane number of big plays and extremely high level of TD production.

The highest rated fantasy QBs each year usually have up in the mid to high 500s in passing attempts with the top echelon guys flirting with 600. Rivers may only have as low as 450 or less in 2009 the way that offense and division look IMO. His average number of attempts is somewhere in the 460s and last year his high was at 470 something. Last year the guy was extremely efficient with those limited attempts, and while he is a good and improving QB, I don't think he is THAT good to continually be one of THE best QB in the league with what he does with those limited # of throws. The guy doesn't have a Randy Moss or even a Terrell Owens to guarantee him elite TD production from his WRs and he won't throw the ball around like Drew Brees will in New Orleans to guarantee the yardage. I think we are looking at a regression back closer to his 2007 numbers rather than a repeat of 2008, but the probability is still there for a 4000/30 type season even if it is a low one. Honestly, this is the one guy in my top10 tier that could easily be outproduced by guys in the top20 unless he keeps up the very high level frequency of big plays and TDs. Maybe people who have Tomlinson ranked in the bottom half of their top10 RBs or outside of it will feel differently about the situation, but to me it's pretty obvious that last year was an anomaly for Rivers.
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Re: kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

Postby benb18a » Wed Aug 19, 2009 3:29 pm

Did you forget about Cassel?
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Re: kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

Postby iamgregg » Wed Aug 19, 2009 3:51 pm

benb18a wrote:Did you forget about Cassel?


I don't think so...

Stay away from Jets, Chiefs, Bucs, and 49ers QBs this year. You take a QB from one of these teams and you are looking at a very good chance at a wasted roster spot IMO.


Probably why he doesn't have him ranked. Personally, I'm in the boat that he will bust, too.
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Re: kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Aug 19, 2009 4:04 pm

Kensat30 wrote:13. Eli Manning (QB16, 10.10)
14. Ben Roethlisberger (QB13, 9.05)
15. Kurt Warner (QB6, 5.02)


I don't see anything skimming through this that's far off- except this.

While one could say he's an injury risk, at some point, Warner's upside beats Manning's lack of receivers and Eli's and Big Ben's low pass attempts. Based on your rankings, he deserves to be no higher than the bottom of the second tier.

Oh, and I do disagree with alot of your 2nd tier. I'd put it this way-
Peyton
Rodgers
---
McNabb
Warner
Rivers
Ryan
---
Schaub
Romo
Palmer
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Re: kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Aug 19, 2009 4:11 pm

Kareighuis wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:13. Eli Manning (QB16, 10.10)
14. Ben Roethlisberger (QB13, 9.05)
15. Kurt Warner (QB6, 5.02)


I don't see anything skimming through this that's far off- except this.

While one could say he's an injury risk, at some point, Warner's upside beats Manning's lack of receivers and Eli's and Big Ben's low pass attempts. Based on your rankings, he deserves to be no higher than the bottom of the second tier.

Oh, and I do disagree with alot of your 2nd tier. I'd put it this way-
Peyton
Rodgers
---
McNabb
Warner
Rivers
Ryan
---
Schaub
Romo
Palmer


Based on your tiering, I think you are much more likely to take a QB earlier than I am and I feel confident I can get similar if not better production from a later pick. You take McNabb as QB#5 and I will take Palmer at QB#10. We are obviously in disagreement regarding Warner. I realize the upside Warner possesses, but I don't think you, and the super majority of fantasy owners out there this year for that matter, are weighing Warner's risk factors appropriately. Agree to disagree there I suppose. I've been burned in the past lookely almost solely at the upside picture without looking at the downside or rather the probability of the downside. Instead of projections or even a range of projection, why not look at probabilities for fantasy football instead? When you look at upside numbers with Warner, he is near the top. But what is the probability of that upside occuring? I see the risk factors and rank the probability of downside at a high level, therefore the upside becomes much less likely to occur when compared to other QB options. What good is an upside of 5,000 yards passing if there is only a 2% chance that everything clicks and he can reach that level. Is it possible? Sure. Likely? No way IMO.

Phillip Rivers is a similar player when I think the probability for upside is relatively small compared to the probability that he falls back to decent but not great stats. I think 3500/25 is much more likely than 4000/35 there, so I don't weigh heavily for the 4000/35. In Rivers case, I weigh for what I think is most likely to occur and include the small percentage chance of reaching that upside. Drew Brees is a top tier QB because I think there is a high probability that he reaches his upside. And Brady is my #1 QB because he has a decent probability to reach an EXTREME upside. I find that for Warner, the middle ground, when weighing the high upside in junction with the extreme downside, has him near the middle of my QB rankings rather than at the very top like most people. I'd rather sacrifice a very small potential loss of pure production versus challenging the risk factors and the probability that is telling me that he has a good chance to land in the outright "bust" category versus competing QBs. People seem to be devaluing a guy like Palmer for the wrong reasons, when they should in fact be using that line of reasoning and doubt and apply to Kurt Warner instead. You don't just say Kurt Warner has the potential for 4500/35 in 2009, but since he has risk factors I will put him down at 3700/28 in my projections instead. Problem is this is the flawed line of thinking the VAST MAJORITY are using for this guy. It's crazy, it's stupid, and it really astounds me with the prevelance of minds out there that go into expert rankings for so many different websites and publications. Last years stats are truly a powerful powerful tool in the minds of a lot of people.

Bottomline, ask yourself this: Is 38 year old QB coming off hip surgery and experiencing lower extremity pain half way through August, a guy with a history of concussions, and who hasn't completed a 16 game season prior to last year for over 7 seasons really the guy you want as a top5 QB and an anchor for your fantasy team? If you want to go ahead and do it, more power to you. The risk is not worth the reward for me.
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Re: kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Wed Aug 19, 2009 5:08 pm

1. How do you determine your "targets" and "avoids" (greens and reds) Because for instance, Schaub is usually taken around QB 9, and yo have him as QB 10 in your rankings. How does that make him a target? Is it based more on ADP (you're saying you like Edwards early 10th or so?)

2. I agree with you most of the way on Warner. But 15 seems awfully low to me. I have him around QB 10-12 (what I call the "QBBC" range...)

3. You don't tier at all between 11 and 20? or between 3 and 10? or do you just not like tiering in general? I actually don't mind not tiering between 3 and 10; while I don't see Schaub overtaking Rodgers, I have all those guys pretty close. But if you ask me, there's a huge difference between Hasslebeck/Cutler (risky but startable, go QBBC or good backup) and taking Delhomme/Campbell (I hope you have a good starting QB). I'd draw a line somewhere around QB 16 (Edwards) between what's an acceptable guy to have as a starting QB (hopefully paired with another) in a 1-QB league. Because like I just said, I don't think you could honestly draft Campbell as your 2nd QB unless you have one of the top 4 or so.

4. I get why you have Orton ranked at 22, but that still seems awfully low to me. His upside makes him a better late round pick than a Campbell if you ask me, just because you know Campbell will be serviceable at best. Granted, at this point it depends on the rest of your team; I assume these rankings are meant to be considered as an assister to you; not an "auto-drafter". For instance, are there spots (depending on the rest of your team) where you might draft Warner in the 9th round, maybe even before Big Ben, even though you have him as QB 15 overall?
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Re: kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Aug 19, 2009 8:44 pm

Kensat30 wrote:
Kareighuis wrote:
Kensat30 wrote:13. Eli Manning (QB16, 10.10)
14. Ben Roethlisberger (QB13, 9.05)
15. Kurt Warner (QB6, 5.02)


I don't see anything skimming through this that's far off- except this.

While one could say he's an injury risk, at some point, Warner's upside beats Manning's lack of receivers and Eli's and Big Ben's low pass attempts. Based on your rankings, he deserves to be no higher than the bottom of the second tier.

Oh, and I do disagree with alot of your 2nd tier. I'd put it this way-
Peyton
Rodgers
---
McNabb
Warner
Rivers
Ryan
---
Schaub
Romo
Palmer


Based on your tiering, I think you are much more likely to take a QB earlier than I am and I feel confident I can get similar if not better production from a later pick. You take McNabb as QB#5 and I will take Palmer at QB#10. We are obviously in disagreement regarding Warner. I realize the upside Warner possesses, but I don't think you, and the super majority of fantasy owners out there this year for that matter, are weighing Warner's risk factors appropriately. Agree to disagree there I suppose. I've been burned in the past lookely almost solely at the upside picture without looking at the downside or rather the probability of the downside. Instead of projections or even a range of projection, why not look at probabilities for fantasy football instead? When you look at upside numbers with Warner, he is near the top. But what is the probability of that upside occuring? I see the risk factors and rank the probability of downside at a high level, therefore the upside becomes much less likely to occur when compared to other QB options. What good is an upside of 5,000 yards passing if there is only a 2% chance that everything clicks and he can reach that level. Is it possible? Sure. Likely? No way IMO.

Phillip Rivers is a similar player when I think the probability for upside is relatively small compared to the probability that he falls back to decent but not great stats. I think 3500/25 is much more likely than 4000/35 there, so I don't weigh heavily for the 4000/35. In Rivers case, I weigh for what I think is most likely to occur and include the small percentage chance of reaching that upside. Drew Brees is a top tier QB because I think there is a high probability that he reaches his upside. And Brady is my #1 QB because he has a decent probability to reach an EXTREME upside. I find that for Warner, the middle ground, when weighing the high upside in junction with the extreme downside, has him near the middle of my QB rankings rather than at the very top like most people. I'd rather sacrifice a very small potential loss of pure production versus challenging the risk factors and the probability that is telling me that he has a good chance to land in the outright "bust" category versus competing QBs. People seem to be devaluing a guy like Palmer for the wrong reasons, when they should in fact be using that line of reasoning and doubt and apply to Kurt Warner instead. You don't just say Kurt Warner has the potential for 4500/35 in 2009, but since he has risk factors I will put him down at 3700/28 in my projections instead. Problem is this is the flawed line of thinking the VAST MAJORITY are using for this guy. It's crazy, it's stupid, and it really astounds me with the prevelance of minds out there that go into expert rankings for so many different websites and publications. Last years stats are truly a powerful powerful tool in the minds of a lot of people.

Bottomline, ask yourself this: Is 38 year old QB coming off hip surgery and experiencing lower extremity pain half way through August, a guy with a history of concussions, and who hasn't completed a 16 game season prior to last year for over 7 seasons really the guy you want as a top5 QB and an anchor for your fantasy team? If you want to go ahead and do it, more power to you. The risk is not worth the reward for me.


I don't have a set strategy- this year, I've been going QB rather early for me. Of all my drafts and mocks, the ones I've been happiest with, I've grabbed RBs early, with a sprinkling of WRs. As the WR-heavy teams are grabbing their RB, I'll stack up either with an elite TE or QB. If I'd taken Warner (I don't have him in a single league- I'm not a fan, for many of the reasons you list), I'd be the first to get a quality backup. As long as you backup well, the reward could have you holding the trophy.

The Eli-Roeth rankings confused me somewhat, considering what you had to say about Rivers' low passing attempts in 2009. Rivers- 478; Eli- 479; Roeth- 469. All three are on run-first teams with strong defenses.
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Re: kensat30's Top 28 QB Rankings

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Aug 19, 2009 11:24 pm

buffalobillsrul2002 wrote:1. How do you determine your "targets" and "avoids" (greens and reds) Because for instance, Schaub is usually taken around QB 9, and yo have him as QB 10 in your rankings. How does that make him a target? Is it based more on ADP (you're saying you like Edwards early 10th or so?)

2. I agree with you most of the way on Warner. But 15 seems awfully low to me. I have him around QB 10-12 (what I call the "QBBC" range...)

3. You don't tier at all between 11 and 20? or between 3 and 10? or do you just not like tiering in general? I actually don't mind not tiering between 3 and 10; while I don't see Schaub overtaking Rodgers, I have all those guys pretty close. But if you ask me, there's a huge difference between Hasslebeck/Cutler (risky but startable, go QBBC or good backup) and taking Delhomme/Campbell (I hope you have a good starting QB). I'd draw a line somewhere around QB 16 (Edwards) between what's an acceptable guy to have as a starting QB (hopefully paired with another) in a 1-QB league. Because like I just said, I don't think you could honestly draft Campbell as your 2nd QB unless you have one of the top 4 or so.

4. I get why you have Orton ranked at 22, but that still seems awfully low to me. His upside makes him a better late round pick than a Campbell if you ask me, just because you know Campbell will be serviceable at best. Granted, at this point it depends on the rest of your team; I assume these rankings are meant to be considered as an assister to you; not an "auto-drafter". For instance, are there spots (depending on the rest of your team) where you might draft Warner in the 9th round, maybe even before Big Ben, even though you have him as QB 15 overall?


1& 3. The tiers I use are more for you guys rather than something I use myself. I have my own gut feelings that tell me where the dropoffs are at the QB position and who I would be comfortable relying on. Schaub is one of the last guys I want as my QB1 if everything is going as planned during the draft. In that grouping of players, although he is the last guy I want, and I have him ranked similarly to his ADP #, he is still likely to end up on my team since there is a chance that he is one of the QBs left when I am making my QB1 or even an early QB2 pick.

2. I have a bad feeling about Warner this season and we will leave it at that. Call it superstition, call it intuition, whatever. 99% chance he doesn't end up on any of my teams.

4. I had Orton ranked several spots higher before that first preseason game. After watching one quarter of that garbage fest, I came to the conclusion that the company line only can extend so far before the hook comes in. I think McCarthy is a downright idiot and potentially even a psychopath when it comes to decision making, but even his rock solid "Orton is our starter" line will be tested once the season gets under way and Orton keeps making bonehead decisions. I love the system, I love the players, and I love the situation, but you can only be worth so much if you might get benched 1 week into the season. Gotta put Orton in the "throw away" tier simply because he could lose his job at any time. Might even lose his job before the season opens if he continues to implode.
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