joejlitz wrote:So in sum...is it safe to pick (would you pick) Housh and Hass? Jones? Carlson?
Only asking you because you're a Hawks fan and got the inside track.
Well, I hate to give you an ambiguous answer but it kind of depends where you're picking them and what you expect them to get.
But to give you an idea:
- I traded for Hasselbeck in a dynasty league. Maybe not my best move (especially given who I traded) but I needed a QB and I think he'll provide top 10 numbers in 2009. I'm not as concerned about his health as everyone else is.
- In a 12 team league I'd be fine grabbing Housh as my WR2, but only if I had already squared away my RBs. In other words, in the 4th round it's good, earlier I'd be worried because few WRs have good numbers on a new team, although everything I've read says he and Hasselbeck are on the same page.
- Carlson is probably a relatively safe pick merely because he's got great hands and was a good outlet for both Hasselbeck and Wallace last year. But expect his numbers to stay flat.
- Julius Jones is underrated IMO. If he gets the bulk of the carries (18 or more) I think he'll be just fine with an 75/0.25 per game avg which works to 1200/4. Good value since he's likely going to be the last starter off the board. Still, I wouldn't draft him for anything other than a low end RB3 or high RB4--someone you use on bye weeks only or in an emergency. Edgerrin James isn't going to be a threat to him and might even help the cause because he definitely isn't the same caliber vulture as Duckett was. Plus hopefully we'll actually be in the games more this year and be running out the clock instead of passing to try to catch up.
One last thing that I think will also make a difference is the defense. The line is going to be much more stout against the run and if the O-line comes back together they way I'm expecting I don't see a reason for the Seahawks to have fantasy relevance at all skill positions.
But I wouldn't blame you one bit if this just sounded like homer talk.
The exact opposite could happen too:
- The O-line crumbles and we have little to no running game.
- Housh struggles to fit in during his first year; Burleson and Branch still seem rusty coming back from injuries in 2008.
- Because of the offensive struggles and a bunch of 3 and outs the defense is on the field waaaay too much and struggle to keep the other team from scoring.
- We abandon the running game and go to the air, allowing teams to blitz more and possibly hit Hasselbeck back onto the IR.
But I think even if the running game struggles we would need to have the passing game struggle too to be in trouble. There's short memory in fantasy football and people have already forgotten his 3900/28 2007 campaign, which featured the short pass because of O-line struggles.