Keeper league -- WHIR

[spider321]

Please do not use preseason stats to support your position. Some people would make fun of you for that.

Does't matter if what round it equates to. Royal is a better pick even if it were a redraft. The fact that it's a 6 player keeper completely eliminates Gates from early consideration.

You don't pick a 29 yr-old TE in a keeper when there are better and younger options out there. Plus, only the kicker position has less positional value than TE in fantasy football.

btw - Brandon Marshall is possibly on the trading block.

Even if he's not, Eddie Royal is far and away the best non-rookie choice.

It's late. Maybe I'll continue this tomorrow.

[UNDEFEATED]

I respectfully disagree spider.

"Eddie Royal is far and away the best non-rookie choice." Simply...No. Your exaggeration is misleading.

Gates Dynasty value/ranking is higher than Eddie Royals.

You talk about tes positional value compared to kickers. Child Please!!!! Gates isn't your typical te. He is a 70-80 catch 850 yards 9TD player. Awesome advantage over your opponents every week.

Indibuck already has his core roster set. Drafting depth at wr and rb. Starters will always be worth much more than bench players. Which player is more valuable to Indibuck. His 3rd or 4th wr sitting on the bench. Or Gates or any tight end scoring actual points raising his weekly points. When the bench player who scores 15 points sitting on the bench...accumulates a fat zero in the box score.

At worst Gates and Eddie Royals value is much closer than you make it out to be. Gates still has a slight advantage.

Gates has an ADP of 47 compared to Eddie Royals 63. Fantasy community disagrees with your assessment of Royals premium margin between gates.

60-70 catch wrs with 700-800 yards and 5 tds are a dime a dozen. The tier is huge.

Gates is a rare breed of Tight End. The tier of elite tight ends is 4 deep and the drop off after is steep.

Brandon Marshall is doing everything possible to get out of Denver. At worst Denver benches Marshall all year. They will not trade Marshall and Cutler in one offseason. They front office will be torched.

[UNDEFEATED]

Please do not use preseason stats to support your position. Some people would make fun of you for that.

Try this on for stats.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/pla ... An00-2.php

or

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/666 ... 2IGHD.uLYF

Over the last 5 seasons...Gates tight end rankings are 1,1,1, 2 & 4.

Over tha last 5 seasons...gates average above 9 tds a season. 13, 10, 9, 9 ,8 respective tds per year.

Over the last 5 seasons....games has averaged 900+ yards a season. 964,1101, 968, 934 and 701(injured). Talk about consistency.

Do you think I pulled my early number from my derriere.

Finally Antonio Gates targets per year. 111, 140, 119, 117 and 92(injured). Consistency.

San Diego's #1 redzone passing option.

What has Eddie Royal done over his 1 year career?

91 catchs 980 yards 5tds. Incredible numbers for a rookie with Cutler passing him the ball under a different offensive scheme. If marshall is traded or bench. Royal will be double covered nasty. Very few opening when you don't have a monster wr opposite you drawing all the coverage.

Great wide receivers do not make a great qb. A great qb can make crappy wrs good. Remember that during the season when eddie royal is sitting on your bench wasting space in your nonppr leagues.

Cmon. Man. Please step your game up. I welcome the challenge.

[Indibuck]

UNDEFEATED and SPIDER321 -- thank you so much for your responses. Your arguments are the same ones that have been going through my head.

For what it's worth... I originally had Braylon Edwards and the 1.10, and traded them for Ryan and the 1.3. I did this because our keeper parameters are changing. RBs are keeper gold in this league -- especially from a trade standpoint (there are 27 RBs being kept). Not selecting a RB at the 1.3 is not really an option IMHO, especially as we can keep up to 4 RBs out of our maximum 9 keepers. And since I plan on keeping more than my minimum of 5 players overall, I will not have a chance of selecting a top rookie RB again for some time (as I will have to give up picks in the first few rounds).

I understand the argument for Gates there... but Witten is the ONLY TE being kept. I expect that I will have a shot at a Clark/Gonzalez at the 2.1 if I so desire. I will remain flexible for the 2.1 spot but likely will go WR (depending on what's left) there as TE seems to be pretty deep... and I am targeting Carlson at my 3.10/4.1 spot.

I am assuming that Moreno will be gone at the 1.1. I also assume that Brown will go at the 1.2 -- living in Indiana means that you have to draft Colts early if you want them on your squad.

So it likely comes down to Wells/McCoy/Lendale/Mendy. As an Ohio State fan living in Indiana (hence Indibuck) I don't want to be a homer and pick Wells if someone can convince me that Shady McCoy or another RB has a higher ceiling in the future. Again, I am not nearly as concerned with 2009 as I am with 2010 and beyond.

Thanks again -- love the responses.

[da bears]

Personally I would take one of those TE's but you seem to want one of those RB's mentioned. Here is how I would rank them
Moreno - loved watching him last year in college think he's going to be great
Brown - I'm in the boat that Addai is on his way out and Brown should take the torch and run with it in that solid indy offense
LenDale - free agent year and I think he's going to have a solid career
McCoy - solid potential but Westbrook is still there and who knows how long he'll still be involved with Philly
Wells - soft. talk about his talent all that you want, he's just flat out soft.
Medenhall - watched him in college thought he didnt have the athletic ability to be a difference maker at the pro level. then he looks like superman against usc and he's viewed by some as a future superstar. don't like him especially this year sounds like Parker came to play.

[bazzy_51]

assuming Moreno is gone by your pick and Brown is gone at 1.02 i would rank them like this actually anyways:

LenDale - kid is only 23, turns 24 in december so hes not THAT much older then these rookies. has shown he can get it done, slimmed down 20ish pounds coming into this year and is a TD Vulture that you can't complain about. i see him getting more carries this year and all the TD opps from about the 30-25 yardlines and in. he is a FA so if Tenn doesn't bring him back and he goes elsewhere his value could sky rocket, either way i think of the RBs available he is the 'safest pick' around.
Moreno - Denver always produces 1000 yard rushers, but hes got vets to battle with and word out of camp is that Buckhalter has been very impressive, one injury already in early season, and if he goes down for a week or 2 with an injury early count his season just about toast cuz they will ride Buckhalter and Jordan, 2 proven vets, as long as they can. great keeper pick as he is young, but i think people are expecting a bit too much out of him this year
McCoy - i rank him higher then Brown and Wells for certain reasons. lets start by comparing him to Brown, i heard someone else say this already good all around, but not GREAT at anything, McCoy has the potential to be a VERY very special RB and could easily replace Westy for years in Philly. comparing to your Buckeye, you should know Wells has some of the worst ankles of any RB in the league, im a big ten guy (no not a fat rodent Wolverine, im a Sparty) and lived in Ohio while attending college and watched Beanies 2 bigger years and it was always 'Beanie tweaked this' 'Wells rolled this' 'Chris is questionable for this game'. i don't persay call him injury prone because they have all been remotely moderate, but they are still there. finally add the fact that Westy is 30+ and not an LT 30+ where hes been very solid healthy wise, we all know Westy hes very much injury prone and i see him going down (not wishing bad, but come on...) mid season and McCoy take full reins
Wells - Revert back to McCoy's description... injuries and pass happy squad...
Mendenhall - should have a great year this year, especially if/when FWP goes down. but even if FWP is still in all year Mendy will get enough touches to show Pitt that he IS their RB of the future and will be a great stepping stone for the showcase he needs to show them. the freak injury last year cost him being a fulltime starter at the start of this year, it won't happen again this year. look for Mendy to be a top 10-15 RB next year.
Brown - i still have alot of confidence in Addai, everyone is straight DOGGING a guy that average 1000yd, 10TDs, 300+ rec yards and 2 rec TD his first 2 years in the league. he gets injured last year and everyone is calling him out of town, if thats the case then LT is done, Westy should have been done many years ago, LJ should have been done, Brandon Jacobs shouldn't be worth a damn this year as the past 2 years hes missed time, Portis, i mean the list goes on and on with injured RBs who have bounced back fine. and thats what will happen this year with Addai, people think just because they took Brown that hes now the starter thats complete bullsh*t. look for Addai to come back with 1100rush/250rec with 12 combined TDs and Brown will be lucky to get 600 total yards with 3 TDs...

oh and just to comment on the whole Gates/Royal deal, all i have to say is Cutler out of town Orton in...

Gates is a stud just about a lock for 1000YD/10TD, Royal will be lucky to hit 900YD/5TD. you can't knock anything on Gates he gives you WR2 numbers from the TE slot, Royal will give you bench player stats from where alot are drafting him to be a low end WR2 or starting WR3 which i think is crazy. i love the idea of you getting John Carlson, i think you could even potentially get him later then that. everyone is really overlooking him but i think he is targeted quite a bit this year and if there is one thing Hasselbeck learned from Favre it was to get his TE's involved and Carlson is one of the TEs to do it with cuz hes got great hands from the TE spot. nice choice on Carlson tho.

hope it helps a bit at least!

[Indibuck]

Draft is tomorrow.


The more I look at this, with who is left, the less I think I can afford to take a RB there. It's a luxury, and I would be building towards the future, but I think I would really tank this year if I went with Wells/Brown/Lendale etc. If Knowshon is there I will take him, but I am 99% sure he's gone with the 1.1.

And because all TEs but Witten are available, I don't see any way I am taking one at the 1.3 either.

So... best available WRs...

Royal
Roy Williams
Santana Moss
Bryant
Lee Evans
Berrian
Driver

then the drop-off. I should have my choice as I am 99.9% sure 1.1 and 1.2 will be RBs.

Again, I pick 1.3, 2.1.... then wait until 3.10 and 4.1. I am targeting TE Carlson and WR Josh Morgan there.

Who do you like at the 1.3? And best available player at the 2.1 (11th overall)?

[bazzy_51]

if you are looking out taking a much valued RB (which IMO is a bad decision, i understand you may have a need elsewhere but why not grab the RB and have trade leverage to get a better WR after the draft, plus there should be one or 2 WR left at that 2.1 pick for you to choose from) but again if your ruling out a RB thats your choice, of the WR you list i rank them like this:

Lee Evans
Roy Williams

Bryant
Moss

Berrian
Royal
Driver

i love the Lee Evans pick this year because with T.O. coming in Evans is all but forgotten about, and everyone is projecting a career year out of him this year simply because of that. Evans is very talented and has put up great, but yet quiet years in that Buffalo offense. i don't think looking at 1100-1200YD with 8TDs is out of the question for Evans this year. I rank Roy that high because honestly he can do nothing but get better, hes back in his home state without the presense of T.O. in the picture. although i say TO helps Evans i think it hurt Roy last year because hes used to being 'the star' i.e. Detroit situation. hes now the #1 in the big D and will be relied on to produce, Romo will look his way often as hes a huge target. Bryant i bumped down a bit because of injury concerns, he played ALOT and was relied on ALOT last year for really the first legit time in his career and i think it may be effecting him. Moss is also down a bit simply because the Skin offense outside of Portis is terrible and hes got a disgruntled Campbell throwing to him. Berrian may have gotten a big boost with Favre coming to town, but hes still going to be double covered alot even with AP in the backfield, you may be able to bump him up to the Bryant/Moss level with confidence but i can't. Royal lost a lot with the departure of Cutler, people can say Orton will do a good job, but they won't be nearly as pass happy with Orton at the help. add to it the fact that if Marshall doesn't play/gets traded yeah Eddie gets a bump to WR1 on denvers depth charts, but i think for Royal to produce a good season again hes going to NEED Marshall opposite of him. and finally Driver, hes consistent year to year but getting older and Jennings is the new go to go in GB, looking for 900 yds and 4 TDs out of Driver is a great projection, 1000 may be attainable but its the Jennings show now in GB. good luck!

[UNDEFEATED]

Bazzy is making a lot of valid points. Lets just say I don't agree wit his RB rankings. Well explained but my placement would be different for the same reasons oddly.

Since you only need to start 2 rbs, do not use a flex and keepers(5-9spots) Building a large stable of RBs and sacrificing your overall team depth is a semi-luxury. Like Bazzy said...the depth can work as trade assets. And you don't appear to be shy to make moves.

If you can not get a rb you like at 1.03. I firmly believe Gates is the best player available. Yes he is 29 and doesn't have the ideal age for a dynasty owner. I believe you are looking to far ahead. Tony G is 33 going on 34 and he is going strong. Gates can do the same. I know you believe TEs are deep this season. But none of them will be Antonio Gates. The supposed deep tight end pool is filled with potential not reality. Everyone is optimistic their mid to late tight end will catch 60 balls 600yards and 6TDs. With Carlson, Greg Olsen, Zack Miller(raiders), Shockey(possible comeback),

Dynasty wise...I have Gates slightly ahead of Dbrown and Wells. Far ahead of all the wrs mentioned. FAR AHEAD. If you pass on 1.03 ok. If you pass on Gates at 2.01 you are nuts.

Current WRs.

Colston - solid 1
Holmes - borderline 2/3 to most people. I dont see him as a 2. And he is a borderline 3 to me.
And none of the WRs mentioned are clear cut wr2. I see a bunch of threes.

Roy Williams is the player with #2 potential. And is considered by many to be a fine #2. And he has a long resume working against him.

This guy puts together a great DYNASTY BLOG WITH RANKINGS and a bit of commentary. He favors young guys a bit more than I like. Remember his rankings are not for the faint of heart. Especially those who view the blog through redraft eyes.

http://dynastyrankings.blogspot.com/sea ... 20Rankings

[spider321]

bazzy,

No offense, but you should be banned for listing Royal 6th out of those receivers.

Seriously.