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Re: Percy Harvin

Postby Cowboys 4 life » Sun Aug 23, 2009 11:09 am

I think Harvin will make a small impact this year but not even close to Royal's numbers. Harvin is electric and will most likely move up and be used in Wildcat.

Still not someone to pick until later in the draft. I grabbed him in a Dynasty over Maclin. Looking back I might have grabbed Maclin because of the character issues Percy has.

I think he will eventually be a solid WR in the NFL if he stays out of trouble.
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Re: Percy Harvin

Postby dgan » Sun Aug 23, 2009 1:32 pm

Free Bagel wrote:
dgan wrote:The Vikings best WR last year was about the 20th ranked WR in most scoring formats with less than 50 catches. Harvin is listed on the team depth chart behind Berrian, Rice and Wade. So how exactly do you think the 4th WR on the team is going to see as much playing time and catch more than 50 balls? (Royal had over 90, Jackson more than 60)


I think the idea here is that Harvin won't be staying 4th on the depth chart for long. Royal and Jackson were at about the same spot at this time last year.

Berrian is already hurt, Rice has disappointed, and Wade is a throwaway. As far as competition for moving up the depth chart goes Harvin has it as good as anyone. It's also worth mentioning that Favre targeted Harvin with 2 out of his 4 passes in his first appearance with the Vikings. Small sample size obviously, but a good start.

dgan wrote:We draft 250 players in our draft, and Royal and Jackson both went undrafted last year. They went on to have very respectable seasons, but had they been drafted in the 6th round, their seasons wouldn't have been so great. They were great fantasy WRs only because they were great value.


While it's true their seasons wouldn't be so great if they were drafted in the 6th round, I'm not sure how that's applicable to Harvin's situation since he's not being drafted anywhere near the 6th round in most drafts. He's a guy going in rounds 12 and up even in 12+ team leagues, which sounds about right for a guy with his upside.


I agree with both those points. My argument isn't that he is horrible and should be erased from draft boards everywhere. I am also looking at him in the later rounds. My point is only that there is no reason to believe (however much some may hope) he is going to catch 60+ balls when no Vikings WR did that last year. Not only does he have to learn a complex offense and leapfrog everyone on the depth chart, he also has to outperform what all those WRs did last year. That is just a very tall task. Someone mentioned him being a valid WR3 or WR2, and I think DRAFTING him in that area is unwise. If he turns out filling that spot, fine, but I wouldn't make him the third WR I drafted for my team.

And I don't want to minimize the impact of the wildcat for an already productive player. A carry is a carry. I just think when you take a rookie (or any player) who doesn't understand the offense and put in a player package for him, that never speaks volumes in fantasy terms. All that means is that he'll only touch the ball a few times a game. So in Percy's case, he needs to become a consistently productive WR before he has any notable fantasy value, and the wildcat would then be a bonus. A player (not even Vick) is not going to make a living for fantasy teams just based on his production out of the wildcat, IMO.
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Re: Percy Harvin

Postby abrunn11 » Sun Aug 23, 2009 1:40 pm

dgan wrote:
abrunn11 wrote:[quote="dgan.
Umm...okay.

First of all, if you are including return yards in your analysis, that is a different discussion. I remember Dante Hall was a good WR3 a few years ago in that scoring system, and he didn't catch 10 balls that year. So I'm taking return yards out of the discussion.

1. I am glad that you are sorry, because it is your loss if you think the Wildcat is a fantasy football owner's dream. Ronnie Brown had one huge game using the Wildcat against the Patriots and it got a lot of pub. After that, teams were more prepared and the Wildcat (statistically speaking) became just another running play. You better believe all defenses will be well-prepared for the Wildcat this year, so I doubt Harvin is going to score 5 TDs all season, much less in one game.

2. The Vikings best WR last year was about the 20th ranked WR in most scoring formats with less than 50 catches. Harvin is listed on the team depth chart behind Berrian, Rice and Wade. So how exactly do you think the 4th WR on the team is going to see as much playing time and catch more than 50 balls? (Royal had over 90, Jackson more than 60)

3. We draft 250 players in our draft, and Royal and Jackson both went undrafted last year. They went on to have very respectable seasons, but had they been drafted in the 6th round, their seasons wouldn't have been so great. They were great fantasy WRs only because they were great value.

I don't know who you are or if we've ever been in discussion before, so I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume your post was meant to be funny. We are all entitled to our opinion. There is no reason to attempt to insult me or anyone here. I make a valid argument, and you obviously have a man-crush on Percy, which is fine. But you better throw more stats and real arguments other than "the guy is electric!". A player's voltage has little to do with fantasy football. Reggie Bush has been electrocuting fantasy owners for a few years now.


I will respectfully bow out of this conversation. I have no clue as to what you are talking about. Where did return yards ever come from and when did I ever say to draft Harvin in the 6th round? Good day sir.
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Re: Percy Harvin

Postby dgan » Sun Aug 23, 2009 1:56 pm

abrunn11 wrote:I will respectfully bow out of this conversation. I have no clue as to what you are talking about. Where did return yards ever come from and when did I ever say to draft Harvin in the 6th round? Good day sir.


LOL. It helps to read every post in the thread - not just yours and mine. The first replies to this thread discussed return yards and WR3 status for Harvin. I then posted my thoughts, which you felt were ridiculous and insane. Therefore, I wanted to clarify that I was not evaluating return yards (I didn't know if you were or not) and to respond to your defense that Harvin could be as productive as Royal or Jackson. Just because he can doesn't mean he will, and therefore you shouldn't draft him expecting such production as others in this thread have suggested.

A forum is meant for discussion. Respect others' opinions and there is no reason to abandon this debate. Based on your passion alone, I reconsidered and moved up Harvin 3 spots on my draft board. Just because I disagree doesn't mean you don't have a good argument.
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Re: Percy Harvin

Postby brett5673 » Sun Aug 23, 2009 2:42 pm

in a normal leaue or PPR, I would draft harvin no higher than as my 4th WR, but in my KR league where 1 point is given for 10 KR/PR yards, I can easily see him being top 10. Royal was #3 last year in that league
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Re: Percy Harvin

Postby shawngee03 » Sun Aug 23, 2009 2:47 pm

brett5673 wrote:in a normal leaue or PPR, I would draft harvin no higher than as my 4th WR, but in my KR league where 1 point is given for 10 KR/PR yards, I can easily see him being top 10. Royal was #3 last year in that league


has anyone played in a league w 1 pt/10 return yards? that seems crazy to me. an average returner is going to get 100 yards a game. im not sure if this would even be fun

we give a pt/35 yards just to add some fun..and it works out fine

and yes...ill be keeping harvin on my late round list for that league
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Re: Percy Harvin

Postby brett5673 » Sun Aug 23, 2009 3:10 pm

shawngee03 wrote:
brett5673 wrote:in a normal leaue or PPR, I would draft harvin no higher than as my 4th WR, but in my KR league where 1 point is given for 10 KR/PR yards, I can easily see him being top 10. Royal was #3 last year in that league


has anyone played in a league w 1 pt/10 return yards? that seems crazy to me. an average returner is going to get 100 yards a game. im not sure if this would even be fun

we give a pt/35 yards just to add some fun..and it works out fine

and yes...ill be keeping harvin on my late round list for that league

IMHO its not fair, its insane, the guy who runs it doesnt get it, but I won't argue. I get an unfair advantage most years. I stackpile on RBs and pickup value WRs, a very easy draft method. Higgins and Royal were 2 and 3 last year and i had both
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Re: Percy Harvin

Postby abrunn11 » Sun Aug 23, 2009 8:31 pm

All I am saying is that he is one of those people that come around every so often that just stand out from everyone else. When I was watching this guy on the practice field he had another gear that nobody else could match. He put some unbelieveable moves on people that made them look silly. Now whether or not this translates into fantasy production is another story. I am sure Reggie Bush looks pretty impressive in practice too ans we all know how much of a let down he has been. I just want people to keep them in the back of their minds come draft day. I am telling you, if you saw what I saw you would be drolling over him too. I guess we will have to wait and see how it pans out.
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Re: Percy Harvin

Postby smackthefirst » Sun Aug 23, 2009 9:58 pm

I actually think Harvin could be one of those guys that we look back on and say "I should have saw this coming". To me, Harvin is going to be one of those players in the NFL that has the ability to change a game not only because of what he can do personally, but also because of what he can open up for the rest of his teammates because defenses have to be aware of and plan for him.

From a fantasy perspective, I don't think he will have as great of an effect this season as he does in real life, but I do think that he is someone that you should take note of. I've followed Harvin ever since he began with Florida and I have read numerous articles on him since being drafted by the Vikings. Yes, I realize that history is not on the side of rookie WRs, but I don't think Harvin is your typical rookie WR. To me, he is a WR simply because he must have some identifying position and it's either RB or WR; but from a game point of view, he is far from the traditional WR to the point that I could easily see him ending the season with more carries than receptions. So from that point of view, you could make the argument that he is a RB and then you wouldn't have as much history against him as you do when you list him as a WR.

As for Harvin himself and the positives he has going for him, there are many. Most importantly in my opinion is that it is already well documented that Minny already 20 to 30 plays specifically to get the ball into the hands of Harvin and 10 to 15 of those plays were created just for Harvin. When is the last time you heard of an offense creating plays for a player let alone creating plays for a rookie before he even strapped up for week 1? Also important is that everyone who has seen Harvin thus far in practices has not only had positive things to report, but they have been glowing reports. It's not uncommon to hear coaches talk up a player, or even a few beat writers, but literally every one I can think of from coaches, writers, reporters, and even his teammates have said that they can see something special in Harvin. From a physical standpoint, Harvin hasn't been clocked as the fastest player (he wasn't even the fastest player on Florida last year), but everyone says that he is one of the fastest football players they have seen. Harvin, according to the reports and my own personal witnessing of him over the past few years at college, is simply one of those "quick" players who has the ability to literally take off with pads on during a game. And I shouldn't leave out that his first step is lightening fast.

Considering everything that I've seen of Harvin combined with all of the reports this preseason, I'm currently projecting Harvin with 180 total points in PPR; and I wouldn't be surprised to see him eclipse 200 total points either. Before you tear that projection apart, let me explain where I get my figures from. First, I'm looking for Harvin to get 2-4 catches per game and 3-5 carries per game which would give him somewhere between 5 and 9 touches per game. If Harvin can get 10+ touches per game, I think you've found yourself a ROY candidate, but I wanted to temper my expectations. Many will quote the WR production from last year and I think those numbers should be thrown out the window because Favre wasn't at QB. I know Favre isn't the Favre of old, but I don't have any problem stating that he will get more completions than the QB options last year. Many will also point out that Minny has ADP which I obviously won't argue with, but giving Harvin 3-5 carries per game won't even affect ADP's carries and production in the slightest.

So with that touch baseline explained, I'd look for Harvin to end the season with around 80 carries and around 50 catches. Of course, depending on the play calling this breakdown could change, but I'd still look for around 130 touches by season's end which is a little over 8 touches per game. I'd also look for Harvin to toy with a 1,000 yard season. I don't think it's far fetched at all to expect Harvin to average 10 yards per catch (500 yards) and 5 yards per carry (400 yards), and I personally think the yards per catch estimate is on the conservative side as may be the yards per carry. For those that will say that 5 yards per carry is a high average, I'd only point out that I don't see Harvin running the ball between the tackles at all. The rushing plays that you see Harvin run will be similar to what Reggie Bush runs and those are the types of plays that normally result in a larger yards per carry figure. The only difficult thing to project for Harvin is his touchdown production as he is clearly not a goal line type of threat and I don't even see him as being a redzone receiving target, but I may be wrong on the latter part. However, even going off the belief that Harvin will only score on longer scoring plays, I feel comfortable projecting him out to have 8-10 touchdowns which is about a touchdown every other game or a touchdown every 16.25 touches. Normally I would say that is to high a scoring frequency but with the explosiveness of Harvin combined with the types of plays that will be utilizing his abilities in my opinion, I don't think this scoring frequency is too far fetched.

With all that explanation out of the way, and even with me projecting him to finish with around 180 total points, I wouldn't recommend drafting him as your WR2 at all and I most likely wouldn't recommend him as your WR3 unless you had a very robust WR1 and WR2. For example, in my main league whose roster is below, I took RMoss and Megatron 1-2 and then took Harvin in the 11th round as my WR3. I feel comfortable only having to use Harvin 2 weeks for byes and possibly as a flex option depending on how accurate my projections are. That league is also a keeper league where you can keep 3 players which also lead to my using this strategy. The reason for my not recommending him as a WR3 is because I am fully aware of the fact that Harvin is still a rookie and even though I feel 100% confident in my projections, until I actually see him on the field in a real game, they are nothing more than my instincts and knowledge being translated into statistics and it's never easy to peg rookies.

But I will say above everything else that Harvin is 100% a guy I will be targeting in all of my drafts and someone that I recommend targeting in all of your drafts as well. It is very rare to see a player with the talents and unique skill set that Harvin has so much to the point that a position, affectionately being referred to as the Percy Position, is being referred to when discussing Harvin. Last year there was CJ4.24 who came in as a rookie, was hyped, and produced on that hype. Two years ago there was ADP who came in as a rookie, was hyped, and produced on that hype even though ADP was drafted much earlier than CJ4.24 and Harvin in fantasy drafts. I fully believe that Harvin is that guy this year even though the other two were RBs and Harvin is playing the Percy Position. ;-D


***Disclaimer - I fully expect this thread to be brought back up at year's end and I will be the first to admit that I was wrong should that be the case. I fully stand by my projections and will not waiver or make excuses should I be on the proverbial train that never leaves the station.***
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Re: Percy Harvin

Postby portisfan24 » Sun Aug 23, 2009 10:11 pm

Have we all forgotten Harvin's injury history? Playing on turf in the bigger, stronger NFL, I would expect Harvin to miss a few games at least. If I can pick him up late as a WR 4-5 I'll consider it, but I won't be relying on him as a starter by any means.
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