jnormy wrote:Here are a handful of reasons why I'm somewhat skeptical of Percy Harvin's impact on the NFL:
Chad Jackson, Taylor Jacobs, Reche Caldwell, Travis Taylor, Jacquez Green
What do they all have in common? They were all super-hyped, early-round WRs from the University of Florida in the past decade or so who never even came close to living up to the hype. Now I'm not saying Harvin is going to be another Chad Jackson; but at what point do we start to wonder if it's maybe the system and not the player that produces such prolific numbers from the WR position, only to see those players flop in the big show? Of course there are always exceptions and the Vikings certainly seem to feel that they have something special in Harvin, but call me wary until Percy actually does something in a real NFL game.
I guess I'll stay on the opposite side of this argument, but Harvin was far from a traditional WR if you can even call him a WR. Of course this isn't an argument to get into, but he was listed as a RB at Florida as well as a WR and he did happen to have more carries than receptions every year he was at Florida.
And when we change to the listing of RBs out of Florida as opposed to WRs, we see a different picture.
Emmit Smith Fred Taylor Eric Rhett Earnest Graham DeShawn Wynn Neal Anderson
And I'll be back later for the rest of the comments after this post as I'm leaving work now.
Excellent point about the carries, although the roster on the Vikings Web site lists him at WR so I assume that's the position they're playing him, even if they do write up a few funky plays with him coming out of the backfield. A rose by any other name and all. Nearly all of those RBs on your list are/were downhill-running, power-type backs, not smallish scatback types like Harvin.
And besides, if Harvin's looking to make much of an impact from the RB position, he's definitely on the wrong team. I'm not saying he WON'T be a good NFL player, but I'll always take a wait-and-see, skeptical approach when it comes to a Gator WR in the pros.
As will I in regards to taking the wait and see skeptical approach with Gator WRs. They have always been over valued IMO because of their college stat lines which was more a product of the system and not their skills. However, I also realize that Harvin, at least to me, is not a product of the system. Regardless of where he's lining up in the NFL (as I agree he will not be a RB in the NFL), I can't lump him in with the history created by the other Gator WRs. Harvin was better able to produce his stats himself to a point, especially when you realize that he was basically a glorified scat back ala RBush with Florida.
Had Harvin threw up 3 1,000 seasons as a WR, I would be the first one doubting his ability to transition to the pro game. But I saw what he did in college and I know that one of the biggest knocks on him was his health. But I also know that this is the same kid he played in the national championship game with a broken ankle. Granted it was a hairline fracture, but it was still a broken ankle which shows me heart and desire which is something all too many "talented" players are missing.
jnormy wrote:Here are a handful of reasons why I'm somewhat skeptical of Percy Harvin's impact on the NFL:
Chad Jackson, Taylor Jacobs, Reche Caldwell, Travis Taylor, Jacquez Green
What do they all have in common? They were all super-hyped, early-round WRs from the University of Florida in the past decade or so who never even came close to living up to the hype. Now I'm not saying Harvin is going to be another Chad Jackson; but at what point do we start to wonder if it's maybe the system and not the player that produces such prolific numbers from the WR position, only to see those players flop in the big show? Of course there are always exceptions and the Vikings certainly seem to feel that they have something special in Harvin, but call me wary until Percy actually does something in a real NFL game.
I guess I'll stay on the opposite side of this argument, but Harvin was far from a traditional WR if you can even call him a WR. Of course this isn't an argument to get into, but he was listed as a RB at Florida as well as a WR and he did happen to have more carries than receptions every year he was at Florida.
And when we change to the listing of RBs out of Florida as opposed to WRs, we see a different picture.
Emmit Smith Fred Taylor Eric Rhett Earnest Graham DeShawn Wynn Neal Anderson
And I'll be back later for the rest of the comments after this post as I'm leaving work now.
Excellent point about the carries, although the roster on the Vikings Web site lists him at WR so I assume that's the position they're playing him, even if they do write up a few funky plays with him coming out of the backfield. A rose by any other name and all. Nearly all of those RBs on your list are/were downhill-running, power-type backs, not smallish scatback types like Harvin.
And besides, if Harvin's looking to make much of an impact from the RB position, he's definitely on the wrong team. I'm not saying he WON'T be a good NFL player, but I'll always take a wait-and-see, skeptical approach when it comes to a Gator WR in the pros.
I've read they've installed some "wild-cat" formations for Percy to get him involved in the running game. From what little I saw of him in last weeks game he looked quick and Farve's only completion was to him. I think the guy has talant and if used right could compliment Peterson's "brusing" style late in games very effectively. Do I think Chilly will be able to do this? ABSOLUTLY NOT!!! But I can hope I guess. I also think by mid-season he will replace Bobby Wade in the slot full time unless he really, really struggles. He may not end up being a game breaker but I'm pretty sure hes better than Bobby.
I guess the part I can't get past has nothing to do with Harvin - it has to do with WRs deep on the depth chart. Even if you run the wildcat 10 times/game, he is going to be a decoy on half of them. Unless he can contribute at WR, there is just no way he can be relied for a fantasy team this year. Sure, he'll have some big plays and big games - but which game? You can't start even a WR3 and get little production while waiting for the 2 or 3 60+ yard runs he'll have.
This is why WRs deep on the depth chart don't intrigue me until very late in the draft. They ran a real nice bubble screen to Harvin in the last preseason game. But you can't give the guy the ball every time he trots onto the field. He has to be on the field regularly so that defenses can't key on him. And the only way he can be on the field regularly is if he becomes a viable WR and wins the #2 job. And as talented as he may be, there are literally 100 other WRs in the NFL trying to earn "starter time" on the field. It is just a risk to say that Harvin will be one of the few that does.
Not saying he can't. Not saying he won't. Not saying he'll be a bust. I'm just saying if I was drafting now, he'd be in that group of names you pick in the round before your kicker.
dgan wrote:I guess the part I can't get past has nothing to do with Harvin - it has to do with WRs deep on the depth chart. Even if you run the wildcat 10 times/game, he is going to be a decoy on half of them. Unless he can contribute at WR, there is just no way he can be relied for a fantasy team this year. Sure, he'll have some big plays and big games - but which game? You can't start even a WR3 and get little production while waiting for the 2 or 3 60+ yard runs he'll have.
This is why WRs deep on the depth chart don't intrigue me until very late in the draft. They ran a real nice bubble screen to Harvin in the last preseason game. But you can't give the guy the ball every time he trots onto the field. He has to be on the field regularly so that defenses can't key on him. And the only way he can be on the field regularly is if he becomes a viable WR and wins the #2 job. And as talented as he may be, there are literally 100 other WRs in the NFL trying to earn "starter time" on the field. It is just a risk to say that Harvin will be one of the few that does.
Not saying he can't. Not saying he won't. Not saying he'll be a bust. I'm just saying if I was drafting now, he'd be in that group of names you pick in the round before your kicker.
This I agree with to a point as well as disagree with slightly. I agree with the fact that Harvin should not be drafted as WR2 no matter what, and drafting him as a WR3 is also a very large gamble. I would say that only in certain situations should he even be on a team as a WR3. As an example and as I said earlier, I have Harvin as a WR3 (by draft spot) on one of my teams where we start 2 WRs and a Flex and he's behind RMoss and Megatron. But I also have NBurleson and LRobinson behind him. So I basically took a few gambles with my 3WR spot because I feel like I will only need to use all of their services at most 2 times during the season if I'm using a RB as a flex.
HOWEVER, I will also say that I was simply going off of my view of Harvin up until this point and I had not looked at his ADP. Needless to say, I am shocked that Harvin is being drafted in the late 8th - early 9th rounds. That is purely insane to me. I thought me grabbing him in the 11th round, in a 3 man keeper nonetheless, was a little bit of a reach.
So while I like Harvin this year and think he could be a very good pickup for most teams, I also know that you should not be wasting an 8th rounder on him. There are better options, even upside options, at that point in the draft.
Well let me just put it to you this way.....here is my team in a 12 man redraft league.
QB McNabb Gerrard
RB Barber Grant Lynch Stewart McCoy
WR Roddy Boldin D Jax Santonio Holmes PERCY HARVIN
TE Winslow
Def BAL
K Gostowski
I cant tell you how excited I am to have him as my WR5!!! I mean did you watch the 3rd preseason game? He was on the field for 80% of the plays and touched the ball (or was targeted) on 3/4 of those! Its obvious they want to use him in any way they can........
The dude is gonna be a check down underneath for Favre all year and will blow it up!
Looking at your roster, just curious who you drafted in the first round and what slot did you draft out of??? I see alot of good talent but I dont see a first round draft pick....
"looking at your roster, just curious who you drafted in the first round and what slot did you draft out of??? I see alot of good talent but I dont see a first round draft pick...."
I actually traded my 1st round pick, for the guys 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks. I hate the #3 pick originally, and he had the #4......so he ended up with #3 and #4 in the first round....while my first pick wasnt until #21.....but then I had 21,22, 27,28......41,42, 47? Something like that....basically 7 picks by the 5th round....but no 1st rd pick.
I didnt like picking at #3 this year and the guy offered this to me which I couldnt refuse.
jnormy wrote:Here are a handful of reasons why I'm somewhat skeptical of Percy Harvin's impact on the NFL:
Chad Jackson, Taylor Jacobs, Reche Caldwell, Travis Taylor, Jacquez Green
What do they all have in common? They were all super-hyped, early-round WRs from the University of Florida in the past decade or so who never even came close to living up to the hype. Now I'm not saying Harvin is going to be another Chad Jackson; but at what point do we start to wonder if it's maybe the system and not the player that produces such prolific numbers from the WR position, only to see those players flop in the big show? Of course there are always exceptions and the Vikings certainly seem to feel that they have something special in Harvin, but call me wary until Percy actually does something in a real NFL game.
What do all those guys have in common with Percy Harvin? They all wore the same color jersey. THAT'S IT.
"Maybe it's the system and not the player" isn't really applicable when Harvin played in a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SYSTEM than all of them. I could see someone making an argument if someone was playing in the same system and with the same coaching staff as we've seen 10 years of NFL failure from, but that's not the case here. The fact that Percy Harvin and Reche Caldwell both attended the University of Florida is no more relevant than the fact that Joe Montana and Rick Mirer both attended the University of Notre Dame.
What players playing in Spurrier's system amounted to in the NFL has no bearing on what players playing in Meyer's system will do in the NFL. The fact that they wear the same color has exactly 0% relevance to anything being discussed here. The only similarities between Florida 1998 and Florida 2008 is that they were both good teams. The offenses were completely different.
portisfan24 wrote:Have we all forgotten Harvin's injury history? Playing on turf in the bigger, stronger NFL, I would expect Harvin to miss a few games at least. If I can pick him up late as a WR 4-5 I'll consider it, but I won't be relying on him as a starter by any means.
If you're going to avoid a player because of injury history then you may as well scratch half of the players in the NFL from your cheat sheet. Especially guys like Adrian Peterson and Tom Brady.
Free Bagel wrote:The fact that Percy Harvin and Reche Caldwell both attended the University of Florida is no more relevant than the fact that Joe Montana and Rick Mirer both attended the University of Notre Dame.
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by smackthefirst » Mon Aug 24, 2009 8:39 pm 
