joejlitz wrote:So take a flyer on Williamson or Chris Henry, then?
Henry's ADP is now 9.09 in 12 teamers... His hype is getting pretty strong.. 9.09 adp is no longer "take a flier" territory.. Williamson is going undrafted..
This time last year .. Who was A. Bryant?? touche'
Good thread... Just a Vikings fan talking on the forst post. Anything is possible and really, throw a dart when you get to round 16.
I am in several slow drafts and almost all of them have seen Williamson drafted on Sunday. After his game this weekend the first 3 picks in 3 of them were Troy.
My predicition... his 7 catches in preseason will be half his 2009 total.
Honestly I think we're overthinking a little here guys. If Williamson goes to NO, NE, Indy, some place like that and this happens then ok but it's Jacksonville. Maybe if you've got like 20 rounds but I've got 16 and 16 is my kicker. 15 is likely a 2nd defense or TE. 14 is probably my first defense. That leaves me with 2QB, 5WR or RB, and 6WR or RB. He can't get on my team.
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One catch on a long bomb does not make this guy a good WR. He's no better at WR than Ashley Lelie. If he earns a major role on the Jags this year, sure he could go for 1,000 yards on the strength of his big plays, but he won't be on my roster doing it. For every long one he catches in 2009, I guarantee you he makes an absolutely horrible play/drop on another one. You can't teach hands or reliability and Williamson just doesn't have it. I wouldn't be surprised if this guy ends up on the Raiders in the near future. Another guy with great speed and athletic ability that just can't play football all that well.
I always have designated one slot on my roster for chasing this type of boom or bust player. Every once in a while , you'll hit and have that stud you need to push you over the top. Thats what makes this game fun IMO. Finding that gem that nobody else knew about and have him go off... Its a big reason why this site is so great.. I feast on grabbing guys like this, letting them go off and then packaging them with another mid level guy and trading for a stud...(hence freeing up another spot to grab yet another guy)
With the logic of "no room" because I gotta keep Bubba Franks or whomever your backup TE is, how do you guys ever make any FA pickups? Maybe by week 3 , this guy proves to be a dud and he goes back in the hopper and I start the chase again.. But he will start the season on my roster with the last pick in my draft...
Right now the guy is far and away leading the league in receiveing yardage. In many cases, the preseason means dink regarding players and how they will perform throughout the year. Other times its a precurser. With what Del Rio is saying about him and the whole re-inventing themselves thing. I am wagering on the latter. If not, I drop him and grab somebody else.. Bubba Franks will always be available on the WW if I need a backup TE... What do I have to lose??
As a kind of aside to this topic, often times in leagues without moves caps, I'll pass on drafting a kicker and select a "flyer" type player waiting to see where they end up on the depth chart before ultimately cutting one of my "flyers" who don't sit atop the depth chart for a kicker before week 1. I see Troy Williamson as being that type of flyer. I don't think he'll be an Antonio Bryant type, but a Bernard Berrian clone perhaps. Williamson has one legit NFL skill and that is straight line speed. He's a burner, now he's working with a QB leaps and bounds better then anything he's worked with in the past. I have no problem with someone speculating on him at draft time, I certainly might (though maybe not in my PPR leagues given his depressed value from straight forward yardage and TD leagues). Also, if Tory Holt is able to play like any season prior to last year (I can't believe how quickly people are ready to write Holt off based on one bad season on a pathetic team) he could be a great compliment burner type. In leagues that have move limits I'd probably be a little less likely to take a flyer as I'd be more inclined to select a backup TE or Defense simply so I don't have to burn a move on them during my starters bye week. Just my thinking.
I don't care if he's a late rounder with "up-side". He's always been somewhat productive in preseason but dissapears when the games count.
Unless he got bionic eyes and hands in the offseason hes not worth drafting imo. I watched him quite a bit with the vikes and he can't catch very well or make adjustments to balls not thrown perfectly out in front him. He never seemed very physical or good with YAC, the only thing he had is speed and if Holt is really as over the hill as he looks then T-Willy will be easily shutdown.
He could have improved and I've been wrong before but I'm not touching him. I'll be betting on a different long-shot late not sure who just yet though.
This time last year .. Who was A. Bryant?? touche'
This time last year: A. Bryant, 6 years, 250 catches (42 per yr.), 3,837 career yards, 19 career TDs, approx. 15.0 ypc, 1 thousand-yard season (2005), NFL top 5 in yds/reception twice ('02 and '06)
This time this year: T. Williamson, 4 years, 84 catches (21 per yr.), 1,097 career yards, 4 career TDs, 13.1 ypc, most recent season - 8 games, 5 catches, 30 yard, 1 TD
Pretty large gap between the two there. Of course, it might be closer if you add those all-important career pre-season stats...