Wierd outcome!!

[Taters]

I just finished my cheat sheets for this years draft, and they look a bit strange. I do and VBD (Value Based Draft) cheat sheets, for those of you that don't know what this is, here is a quick outline. I take the player projections from four different sites, avg those projections into 1, draw a baseline for the starters, (ie 10 team league starting 1 QB, baseline would be 10th rated QB.) and subtract from there. Here is what is wierd, in my top ten, I have 4 RB 4 WR and 2 QB. I was wondering if anyone eles has had this happen. So what this is telling me is that the RB postion is getting more parity, or more RBBC teams. Just to let your know here is how my to ten came out. The number on the right is how many points there are above their postion baseline.

1 L. Fitzgerald ARZ - 77
2 A. Peterson MIN - 75
3 D. Brees NO - 69
4 C. Johnson DET - 66
5 M. Jones-Drew JAC - 65
6 R. Moss NE - 63
7. A. Johnson HOU - 61
8. T. Brady NE - 57
9. M. Turner ATL - 56
10. M. Forte CHI - 54

[ramzstriker]

This year easily shows the variation or evolution of the running back position the most. Some fantasy mags have tagged this year as "the year of the receiver" but i see it more as a spike of rbbc's i have started drafting with the strategy of getting one of 3 players (AP, Forte, or Turner in the top 3) and maybe MJD at 4...after that i am tempted to reach for (Andre, Fitz or Moss) @ wr...so in hind sight the reasoning for this is that you can get great value out of late round backs...as weve found out this year with most people drafting forte and turner late and as a result they are top selections this year....players like ced benson, jstew, mccoy and several other rookies i think could break out this year...i would deff stock up on wrs early if you arent a top pick and go wr-wr-then either rb or qb. Of course if your league scores 6 pts for ALL tds i may gamble on a qb early as well

help me please

viewtopic.php?f=344&t=441149

[GlorifiedG]

Come back and check these in 4 Months. They won't even be close.

It's far too hard to create on point predictions and do effective VBD. While having an idea of VBD is nice, drafting solely on it is kind of foolish in my opinion as you need to balance risk with reward and projections just can't accurately do that.

[Taters]

Then what is the best way to draft then if projections are foolish? If there is a better way, Iam willing to try it.

[lsufan]

Your projections look weird to me as well. I assume that this is a PPR league since Fitz is ranked first. I have no problem with that. In some formats he will have more points than the RB's on your list. The thing that does confuse me is how Brees and Brady are in the top 10. Even in a 6 pt per pass TD league I wouldn't take Brees or Brady in the first round of a 10 team league. I also find it strange that MJD is ranked that low. Calvin Johnson that high is also a little weird. You may want to make sure the projections you are using are all the same league set up. Make sure your not taking PPR cheat sheets and mixing them with non-PPR cheat sheets.

I also wanted to say that all this stuff really doesn't matter. Your opinion is the most important. If you are happy with the formula that you came up with, use it. No one would blame you for taking any of those players in the first round.