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Quick Hits

Postby joejlitz » Mon Aug 24, 2009 10:54 am

Although I have Larry Fitzgerald ranked as the #1 overall wide receiver, I can’t get past the Madden Curse. He does share the cover with Santonio Holmes, though and so maybe he only gets half the curse. Or maybe they’re both cursed. Either way, I’ll play it safe and target Randy Moss as my top wide receiver.

Chris Henry left his annual summer home in the Cincinnati Correctional Facility in time to rejoin the Bengals in their constant pursuit of mediocrity. Interestingly enough, T.J. Houshmanzadeh’s exit paves the way for him to step towards under-the-radar fantasy relevance. If he stays out of trouble, he could be a steal in later rounds.

Now that Jericho Cotchery no longer has a Hall of Fame quarterback, it only makes sense that he return to his 2007 form when he posted 82 catches and 1130 yards.

LT a workhorse in 2009? I’m not buying it. Teams don’t franchise back-up running backs and San Diego isn’t paying Darren Sproles $6.62 million to ride the pine. It’s as simple as that. Expect a running back by committee situation with close to a 50/50 split of touches (which actually might enhance an aging LT's performance?).

Will Anthony Gonzalez blow up in 2009? Not likely, but two factors support his cause. First, Marvin Harrison’s departure has opened the door for him to catch more balls. Second, this is his 3rd year in the league which is when receivers typically begin to come into their own. He may not finish as a top-10 WR, but 75 balls and 1,100 yards is looking good. Other 3rd year wide receivers include: Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Ted Ginn, Jr., Steve Breatson, and Steve Smith (NYG).

Two Philadelphia Eagles that could provide great value are wider receiver Kevin Curtis and tight end Brent Celek. Curtis posted 77 catches, 1,110 yards and 6 TDs in 2007 but a sports hernia prevented him from being a fantasy force in 2008. Now that he is healed and teammate Desean Jackson will likely draw CB1 coverage, I expect Curtis to climb back to his 2007 form. As for Celek, he took over the tight end duties at the end of last year and quickly became a favorite of Donovan McNabb’s, recording 151 yards and 3 TDs in 3 playoff games, including 10 catches againt the Cards in the NFC Conference Championship Game. Getting TE1 reps throughout training camp and the preseason should contribute towards significant fantasy success. He is a top-10 TE with top-6 potential.

Ray Rice is the best back in Baltimore and it is only a matter of time before he solidifies his position as the workhorse for the Ravens. Draft him as your RB3 and expect a ton of upside.
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Re: Quick Hits

Postby PuntinFool » Mon Aug 24, 2009 1:12 pm

joejlitz wrote:Chris Henry left his annual summer home in the Cincinnati Correctional Facility in time to rejoin the Bengals in their constant pursuit of mediocrity. Interestingly enough, T.J. Houshmanzadeh’s exit paves the way for him to step towards under-the-radar fantasy relevance. If he stays out of trouble, he could be a steal in later rounds.

Definitely go for the steal, though I wouldn't overpay for the guy if anyone's thinking about it. Solid talent but I don't believe Cincinnati's offensive line has improved enough to bank on Henry. Still, a good flyer as any.

joejlitz wrote:Now that Jericho Cotchery no longer has a Hall of Fame quarterback, it only makes sense that he return to his 2007 form when he posted 82 catches and 1130 yards.

Such a tough situation in New York right now. Cotchery is opposite Stuckey now, along with some help from this anonymous guy Brad Smith. The running backs are an unexplosive Thomas Jones with some implied electric interference from Leon Washington. The quarterback Mark Sanchez, as highly heralded as he is, may end up as Matt Ryan or may end up on his back most of the time. Dustin Keller is a good option and showed flashes of greatness last year, but let's be real: Cotchery is going to be swarmed until Stuckey and/or Sanchez is respected by the league. I think he'll be a solid WR but I wouldn't go too high on him. I do like the logic, though!

joejlitz wrote:LT a workhorse in 2009? I’m not buying it. Teams don’t franchise back-up running backs and San Diego isn’t paying Darren Sproles $6.62 million to ride the pine. It’s as simple as that. Expect a running back by committee situation with close to a 50/50 split of touches (which actually might enhance an aging LT's performance?).

I fully agree. It may be more like 70/30 or perhaps 60/40, but this likely won't be the LT of yesteryear. Injuries, ineffectiveness, and other options are likely to make a high pick of LT a little bit of a downer to even his biggest supporters. At least he's a proven talent, though choosing him over upside guys who may get more touches like Slaton or Gore might be the big thought on draft day.

joejlitz wrote:Ray Rice is the best back in Baltimore and it is only a matter of time before he solidifies his position as the workhorse for the Ravens. Draft him as your RB3 and expect a ton of upside.

Good advice, though one may want to consider McClain if they've got the bench room as well. McClain had a lot of goal line success last year and managed to put together a few decent games when he was the main guy. However, he tailed off at the end and proved he's probably better as a tandem with someone else. Rice is the better pick but be ready to pounce on McClain if Rice pulls a Selvin Young on you. Like Joe said, get him as an RB3.
Last edited by PuntinFool on Mon Aug 24, 2009 2:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Quick Hits

Postby biju » Mon Aug 24, 2009 1:24 pm

Don't have time to go into it right now (I'm at work) but I've got to say that I actually disagree with almost all of your points. Sorry, I'll try to get back around to this later today...
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Re: Quick Hits

Postby 2ksports » Mon Aug 24, 2009 1:45 pm

I don't believe in curses. I believe in the fact that Anquan Boldin can do just as good as Fitz. I believe that Randy Moss is the better overall pick right now given he has a speed advantage and has Tom Brady.

Chris Henry is the biggest target out there. He's going to get a ton of redzone targets, which makes him playable as a WR3... no matta wot. Plus didn't somebody say he's the next Randy Moss?

Cotchery and the whole jets passing game will suck.

LT will get over 300 touches one way or another, and that makes him very valuable in the AFC West. I think Sproles and LT can coexist and don't really take away from each other.

Of the 3rd year receivers, Calvin Johnson and Dwayne Bowe will have the best seasons, by far. If you've been watching Dwayne Bowe in preseason, looks a lot like Calvin Johnson. Gonzalez is another great pick, I agree with u that 1100 yards is very doable, although I'd expect that as his CEILING, while that would be the floor for Bowe and Calvin. Ted Ginn Jr has some upside, and Steve Smith too, but I don't trust either enough to be a WR3 yet, but it's worth a pick to see how they do.

Curtis will not be a factor with Desean Jackson and Maclin in the mix. It's clear those too speedsters are going to get plenty of looks, detracting from Curtis's value. I feel like Desean Jackson will become one of the top WRs soon.

I also would not go as far as to say Ray Rice is the top back. I thought McGahee looked just as good, and even better near the goalline area. Ray Rice needs to score a TD first b4 we invest in him as RB3.
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Re: Quick Hits

Postby joejlitz » Mon Aug 24, 2009 2:17 pm

2ksports wrote: Curtis will not be a factor with Desean Jackson and Maclin in the mix. It's clear those too speedsters are going to get plenty of looks, detracting from Curtis's value. I feel like Desean Jackson will become one of the top WRs soon.

Curtis may or may not be able to get there, but it won't be because of Maclin. As an Eagles fan and a guy who reads the Philly paper every day and follows the team, Maclin will not have a huge impact this year. He's more raw than Jackson was at this time last year, he missed the first week of camp, putting him behind everyone else, and he's trying to get his confidence back after muffing two kicks in the last two games. I'm looking at 40 catches for Maclin.

Thanks for the input on all of the other stuff, though. Some of these were made in jest or with a hint of sarcasm (i.e. Cotchery and Fitz) and others I believe more strongly about my comments (like LT and Celek). Others are just my predictions and we all know how those can work out! ;-D
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Re: Quick Hits

Postby mattb47 » Mon Aug 24, 2009 3:20 pm

Well...I'll just say I disagree with a lot of what you've thrown out here.

I personally have Randy Moss easily atop my WR rankings and I think that people are extremely overhyping Larry Fitzgerald as a fantasy WR anway...he may not even be the best fantasy WR on his own team on a consistent basis. There is no Madden Curse...I really have a hard time believing that people legitimately believe in that kind of thing...there are reasons to not have Fitz #1 but a "curse" is not among them.

Chris Henry is always on people's "sleeper" list so he's really rarely a true steal in drafts because enough people have high expectations for him that they don't wait too terribly late for him. Many view him as the real #2 guy in Cincy so he might be a guy overdrafted in some drafts really.

I actually agree that Cotchery will probably do better this year than most people think...he's being exceptionally undervalued and being a possession WR in a offense with QBs who don't really have strong arms and are more "accuracy" based will probably help him more than having Favre last season.

I don't think you could be more wrong about LT...there have been very little indication that this will be even a RBBC style much less a 50/50 split between him and Sproles. Norv will not go with the "well they are earning a similar amount of money this year so I'll play them the same" strategy with his RBs...he's always been a 1 RB guy when he's had a legitimate RB on roster and that's not going to change this year. Sproles is quite obviously not more talented than Michael Turner was/is and I don't think you'll see him have much more of a role than Turner ever had with the team...and his maximum carries while with SD? 80. How many carries did Sproles have with an LT who was injured all season? Just 61. LT has reportedly looked VERY good so far and a healthy LT is MILES better than Sproles. I think they franchised Sproles to make sure they didn't make another mistake like they did when they let Turner go and they also know they have a legitimate 2nd back and backup to LT.

They ran it just 421 times last season which was much lower than normal and lower than what it will be this year. In 2007 they had 485, 522 in 2006, and 465 in 2005. I expect them to be in the 475+ carry range this season for their guys which means I could easily see LT back over 300 which Sproles seeing close to 100 of his own...but I still don't see LT getting less than 70% of the RB carries this season.

I think Gonzalez will be reasonably successful this year...top 10 though? I highly doubt it...I think he could easily end up top 20 taking over Harrison's role and he does fit that offense well but top 10 is a stretch and there will only be 1 top 10 WR from Indy unless that guy goes down.

As far as Curtis and Celek goes...I don't know about it. Curtis is pretty unlikely I think as that offense has a lot more weapons now than they did in 2007 when he had his bigger year. They didn't have DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, or even the other guy you're talking about in Brent Celek as a legit target for McNabb yet. That's a lot of touches that WON'T be going to Curtis and I personally don't see him even approaching 77 catches or 1000 yards this year.

Celek was looking like a legit "sleeper" TE but his injury casts doubt on that...on top of that there's still the problem of so many weapons on that Philly offense that it's tough to like anyone alot outside of Westbrook and Jackson barring injury.

I agree that Ray Rice is the #1 in Baltimore though...although I don't know that he'll truly be a "workhorse" by any means so how that will play out is up in the air. I don't know that I would take him as my RB3 though.
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Re: Quick Hits

Postby Kensat30 » Mon Aug 24, 2009 3:57 pm

Anthony Gonzalez is the biggest whiff at the WR position this year. "Marvin Harrison is gone" and "Anthony Gonzlez is a thid year WR" are not valid reasons for why this guy will succeed.

The lack of a legit WR2 is the main cause of concern I have for Peyton Manning this season. Gonzalez is not an especially good route runner, he isn't the type of WR who will fight for the ball in traffic, and he is not very fast. The guy is what you can an "average" WR. Start picking "average" WRs in good situations in the early rounds of your draft and see what happens. I have a hard hard time seeing Anthony Gonzalez turning into a stud WR this year, but I don't have a hard time seeing the guy massively dissapointing based on his ADP.

Might as well start taking Kevin Walter and Michael Jenkins in the 5th round of your draft while you are at it. Corner the market on mediocre WR2s on good passing offenses. Dallas Clark has a 50/50 chance to outproduce the guy from the freaking TE position.
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Re: Quick Hits

Postby PuntinFool » Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:16 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Anthony Gonzalez is the biggest whiff at the WR position this year. "Marvin Harrison is gone" and "Anthony Gonzlez is a thid year WR" are not valid reasons for why this guy will succeed.

The lack of a legit WR2 is the main cause of concern I have for Peyton Manning this season. Gonzalez is not an especially good route runner, he isn't the type of WR who will fight for the ball in traffic, and he is not very fast. The guy is what you can an "average" WR. Start picking "average" WRs in good situations in the early rounds of your draft and see what happens. I have a hard hard time seeing Anthony Gonzalez turning into a stud WR this year, but I don't have a hard time seeing the guy massively dissapointing based on his ADP.

Might as well start taking Kevin Walter and Michael Jenkins in the 5th round of your draft while you are at it. Corner the market on mediocre WR2s on good passing offenses. Dallas Clark has a 50/50 chance to outproduce the guy from the freaking TE position.

It's official: Kensat30 really hates Anthony Gonzalez. See also: Phillip Rivers, Kurt Warner (btw, great QB post)
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Re: Quick Hits

Postby justinj312 » Tue Aug 25, 2009 1:09 am

Woo-Wooo... Here comes the C Henry hype train....

just read the reports:
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/player ... FL&id=3167


Facts: Palmer likes to throw to him, he's a big target in red zone, and he's in a contract year.

That's enough checks for me.
He's gonna explode.
thx

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Re: Quick Hits

Postby Fade2White12 » Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:44 am

Kensat30 wrote:The lack of a legit WR2 is the main cause of concern I have for Peyton Manning this season. Gonzalez is not an especially good route runner, he isn't the type of WR who will fight for the ball in traffic, and he is not very fast.


Are we talking about the same Anthony Gonzalez? Everything you've said right there I would say is dead wrong.

Universally, his greatest strengths are considered his route running and timing (which you said was not especially good), sure hands, and work ethic (he sleeps in a hyperbaric chamber). In addition, out of OSU, scouts praised him for his fearlessness over the middle and in traffic. Also, although he ran a 4.44 40 at the combine, which is better than "not very fast," he’s been clocked in the 4.36-4.38 (much faster than both Harrison AND Wayne) range multiple times and has a 38" vertical.
Last edited by Fade2White12 on Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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