Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

[Lucky7]

Everyone seems to have Fitz as the No.1 WR this year. My concern with him, though, is that his success is largely dependent on Warner staying healthy. While that's true of many WRs, Warner IMO is more brittle than most QBs. I'm curious if anyone has another WR ranked higher.

[2ksports]

non PPR

1. Moss - all in all he's the same as fitz, but higher ceiling.
2. Calvin Johnson - Linehan gonna make him the next Moss? Does QB even matter for this guy? Possibly best WR in NFL right now with great work ethic.
3. Fitz / Boldin - your pick. - fitz dependant on other person getting injured to really be ranked #1 overall.

I think you'll find several people rank Moss higher, if not Calvin Johnson. Also you'll find the argument that Boldin could be had in the 3rd round or late 2nd for virtually the same production as Fitz, so why bother with a 1st round pick.

[Dan Lambskin]

i have him #1 overall, although certainly arguments can be made for Moss or Calvin...i think in a PPR league though Fitz catches 20 more balls or so

[petedog9]

No AJ in the mix? I am real high on him this year regardless on whos under center..

[Aeschines]

I think he should. He has the highest ceiling and doesn't have an injury history. With that said I would be equally happy getting Fitz, A. Johnson, A. Boldin, C. Johnson, or R. Wayne.

[Dan Lambskin]

No AJ in the mix? I am real high on him this year regardless on whos under center..

he's definately in my Top 4...but with his injury history no way i would take him as the 1st WR off the board

[2ksports]

No AJ in the mix? I am real high on him this year regardless on whos under center..

To me it was clear that Calvin Johnson is above Andre Johnson, and I don't consider them even in the same tier (at least for non-PPR).

Here are my own personal reasons and I don't know if others will agree.

YPR
Andre Johnson avgs about 14 ypR.
Calvin had 15, and then 17 in his 2nd year with crap QBs.

TDs
It's surprising, but Andre has never gotten over 8 TDs in any given season. Calvin had 12 last year, with the Lions.

Superstition
Calvin is a 3rd year receiver. If you believe a WR breaks out in their 3rd year, then you believe that Calvin will have a better year than he had last year. If he had 1300 and 12 last year, then this year... o m g....
Andre Johnson, on the other hand, has sucked every other year.

Linehan
What's better than Dante Culpepper to Randy Moss? Probably Daunte Culpepper to Calvin Johnson. The ceiling is very high for Calvin with Linehan who will likely force feed redzone targets to Calvin.

Physique
Calvin is the better physical specimen, at least according to combines, and looks it on the field. He's also 2 inches taller than Andre and an inch taller than Randy Moss but more buff and probably just as fast if not faster than both. Freak of nature. The fact that he has a blue-collar hard work ethic means can only be a plus.

[Sex Panther]

Fitz, IMO is the "safest" pick.

Moss has the most upside.

Calvin still plays on the lions & AJ doesn't catch enough TD's.

All in all, I really think any of those 4 have a legit chance to finsih as the #1 WR at the end of the year.

Non PPR I would rank em -

Moss, Fitz, Calvin, AJ

PPR I would rank em -

Fitz, AJ, Moss, Calvin

[mattb47]

For me...I have Moss as my CLEAR #1 WR this season in a class of his own. I feel that he really has one of the highest floors of any WR especially considering that he still had 1000+ yards and double digit TDs with Matt Cassel at QB last season who couldn't throw a great deep ball to save his life. I really feel that his downside is around 1100-1200 yards and 10-12 TDs...I can't honestly say that I see him doing worse than that in a terrible season for him in that offense and his upside is 1400-1500 yards and up close to 20 TDs. I don't see any other WR with that kind of pure upside with a good situation.

The problem I have with taking Fitz #1 is that he's really not even consistently the best fantasy WR on his own TEAM much less in all of the NFL. On a game to game basis last season, Anquan Boldin significantly outperformed him and not only that, but he got more looks each game from Warner than Fitz did. I'd rather take Boldin in round 3 and get similar fantasy production than take Fitz as the overall #1 WR.

I have them ranked:

1. R. Moss

2. C. Johnson
3. A. Johnson
4. L. Fitzgerald

I think that alot of Fitzgerald's success is tied to the health of Kurt Warner for the whole season and that is worrisome. I also think that since you can't even say with any real confidence that Fitz will be the top WR for the Cards fantasy wise, then how can you really say that he's the outright best fantasy WR?

[Fade2White12]

For me...I have Moss as my CLEAR #1 WR this season in a class of his own. I feel that he really has one of the highest floors of any WR especially considering that he still had 1000+ yards and double digit TDs with Matt Cassel at QB last season who couldn't throw a great deep ball to save his life. I really feel that his downside is around 1100-1200 yards and 10-12 TDs...I can't honestly say that I see him doing worse than that in a terrible season for him in that offense and his upside is 1400-1500 yards and up close to 20 TDs. I don't see any other WR with that kind of pure upside with a good situation.

The problem I have with taking Fitz #1 is that he's really not even consistently the best fantasy WR on his own TEAM much less in all of the NFL. On a game to game basis last season, Anquan Boldin significantly outperformed him and not only that, but he got more looks each game from Warner than Fitz did. I'd rather take Boldin in round 3 and get similar fantasy production than take Fitz as the overall #1 WR.

I have them ranked:

1. R. Moss

2. C. Johnson
3. A. Johnson
4. L. Fitzgerald

I think that alot of Fitzgerald's success is tied to the health of Kurt Warner for the whole season and that is worrisome. I also think that since you can't even say with any real confidence that Fitz will be the top WR for the Cards fantasy wise, then how can you really say that he's the outright best fantasy WR?

Great post! I completely agree with your assessments of both Moss and Fitzgerald. The only thing I would do is switch the Johnson's around, especially in PPR.