Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

[sirchadwick1]

For me...I have Moss as my CLEAR #1 WR this season in a class of his own. I feel that he really has one of the highest floors of any WR especially considering that he still had 1000+ yards and double digit TDs with Matt Cassel at QB last season who couldn't throw a great deep ball to save his life. I really feel that his downside is around 1100-1200 yards and 10-12 TDs...I can't honestly say that I see him doing worse than that in a terrible season for him in that offense and his upside is 1400-1500 yards and up close to 20 TDs. I don't see any other WR with that kind of pure upside with a good situation.

The problem I have with taking Fitz #1 is that he's really not even consistently the best fantasy WR on his own TEAM much less in all of the NFL. On a game to game basis last season, Anquan Boldin significantly outperformed him and not only that, but he got more looks each game from Warner than Fitz did. I'd rather take Boldin in round 3 and get similar fantasy production than take Fitz as the overall #1 WR.

I have them ranked:

1. R. Moss

2. C. Johnson
3. A. Johnson
4. L. Fitzgerald

I think that alot of Fitzgerald's success is tied to the health of Kurt Warner for the whole season and that is worrisome. I also think that since you can't even say with any real confidence that Fitz will be the top WR for the Cards fantasy wise, then how can you really say that he's the outright best fantasy WR?

Great post... I completely agree w/ you too. My top 4 WR are in this exact order.

[Free Bagel]

I would definitely take both Moss and Calvin over Fitz.

The Moss reasoning is simple. We've seen what he can do with a healthy Tom Brady. Even if those numbers fall off by quite a bit, he's still WR1.

When I look at Fitz vs. Calvin, I look at two guys with nearly identical numbers last year, only one did it with a pro bowl QB (Warner) and the other with a revolving door of awful QBs (Culpepper, Orvlovsky, etc). That disparity in QB play could easily come down some this year (especially with Warner already hurting), and even if it doesn't the numbers were already basically the same anyway.

Further, here is a comparison of Fitz's career stats with and without Warner.

With Warner:
6.3 rec, 90.3yds, 0.7 TDs per game
Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 101 rec, 1445 yds, 11 TDs

Without Warner:
4.6 rec, 60.9yds, 0.46 TDs per game
Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 74 rec, 974 yds, 7 TDs

Even if we throw out his rookie season, he's still down 200+ yards and 5 TDs, which drops him well out of the range of what even top 5 FF WRs typically score.

Without Warner (rookie season thrown out):
5.9rec, 77 yds, 0.41 TDs per game
Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 94 rec, 1230 yds, 6 TDs

However, I will say one thing as it pertains to Fitz. People are really forgetting just how godly the guy was in the postseason last year. People are looking back at last year and seeing Fitz's 1400/12 and thinking that's what people are basing his #1 ranking off of it. It's not, that was only the beginning. People are making a big mistake when they look at Fitz as the "safe" pick with less upside. Rest assured, Fitz is just as likely to catch 25 touchdowns next year as either of the other two, the postseason proved that much to us.

That said, I still like Moss/Calvin over him for the reasons mentioned above, though I do worry about Calvin's insane YPC coming back down to earth.

[petedog9]

Heres my problem with Moss at #1.. This is WR that is a poor route runner and has relied completely on his god given speed and ability to make plays in the NFL. He has simply been faster, taller and a better leaper with superior hands. Thats how he does it and has for a long time. Which leads me to his age.. He is 32 years old. He is getting to that magic age where WRs seem to decline and some decline very fast. Granted he has the "freak factor" and maybe his abilities dont drop as much as I fear they may. You also must consider the QB .. Yes its Tom terrific Brady but he is coming off a major knee injury. (see Carson Palmer) ...

For those reasons, I have Moss 4th behind the other big 3 and personally like AJ this year as I beleive the Houston offense is going to explode this year. They have the weapons at every skill position. As long as Schaub can stay healthy, they are posied for a HUGE year... Just my .02

[mattb47]

Heres my problem with Moss at #1.. This is WR that is a poor route runner and has relied completely on his god given speed and ability to make plays in the NFL. He has simply been faster, taller and a better leaper with superior hands. Thats how he does it and has for a long time. Which leads me to his age.. He is 32 years old. He is getting to that magic age where WRs seem to decline and some decline very fast. Granted he has the "freak factor" and maybe his abilities dont drop as much as I fear they may. You also must consider the QB .. Yes its Tom terrific Brady but he is coming off a major knee injury. (see Carson Palmer) ...

For those reasons, I have Moss 4th behind the other big 3 and personally like AJ this year as I beleive the Houston offense is going to explode this year. They have the weapons at every skill position. As long as Schaub can stay healthy, they are posied for a HUGE year... Just my .02

Feel free to pass on him...the plain fact of the matter remains that NO receiver has the upside of Randy Moss. It's really that simple. And to be completely honest...32 for a WR is NOT old at all...especially for a receiver that got to take all those years in Oakland off.

[2ksports]

I would definitely take both Moss and Calvin over Fitz.

The Moss reasoning is simple. We've seen what he can do with a healthy Tom Brady. Even if those numbers fall off by quite a bit, he's still WR1.

When I look at Fitz vs. Calvin, I look at two guys with nearly identical numbers last year, only one did it with a pro bowl QB (Warner) and the other with a revolving door of awful QBs (Culpepper, Orvlovsky, etc). That disparity in QB play could easily come down some this year (especially with Warner already hurting), and even if it doesn't the numbers were already basically the same anyway.

Further, here is a comparison of Fitz's career stats with and without Warner.

With Warner:
6.3 rec, 90.3yds, 0.7 TDs per game
Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 101 rec, 1445 yds, 11 TDs

Without Warner:
4.6 rec, 60.9yds, 0.46 TDs per game
Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 74 rec, 974 yds, 7 TDs

Even if we throw out his rookie season, he's still down 200+ yards and 5 TDs, which drops him well out of the range of what even top 5 FF WRs typically score.

Without Warner (rookie season thrown out):
5.9rec, 77 yds, 0.41 TDs per game
Over a 16 game season, that prorates out to 94 rec, 1230 yds, 6 TDs

However, I will say one thing as it pertains to Fitz. People are really forgetting just how godly the guy was in the postseason last year. People are looking back at last year and seeing Fitz's 1400/12 and thinking that's what people are basing his #1 ranking off of it. It's not, that was only the beginning. People are making a big mistake when they look at Fitz as the "safe" pick with less upside. Rest assured, Fitz is just as likely to catch 25 touchdowns next year as either of the other two, the postseason proved that much to us.

That said, I still like Moss/Calvin over him for the reasons mentioned above, though I do worry about Calvin's insane YPC coming back down to earth.

The problem I have with this is that Boldin played for just one half of a game in the post season. For Fitz to have Randy Moss ceiling, it would likely take
1) healthy warner
2) boldin injury

Otherwise either a bad QB will be throwing the ball or Warner will be spreading the ball, or worse, a bad QB spreading the ball.

[petedog9]

Heres my problem with Moss at #1.. This is WR that is a poor route runner and has relied completely on his god given speed and ability to make plays in the NFL. He has simply been faster, taller and a better leaper with superior hands. Thats how he does it and has for a long time. Which leads me to his age.. He is 32 years old. He is getting to that magic age where WRs seem to decline and some decline very fast. Granted he has the "freak factor" and maybe his abilities dont drop as much as I fear they may. You also must consider the QB .. Yes its Tom terrific Brady but he is coming off a major knee injury. (see Carson Palmer) ...

For those reasons, I have Moss 4th behind the other big 3 and personally like AJ this year as I beleive the Houston offense is going to explode this year. They have the weapons at every skill position. As long as Schaub can stay healthy, they are posied for a HUGE year... Just my .02

Feel free to pass on him...the plain fact of the matter remains that NO receiver has the upside of Randy Moss. It's really that simple. And to be completely honest...32 for a WR is NOT old at all...especially for a receiver that got to take all those years in Oakland off.

I understand your opinion and you may be right.. I cannot deny that the upside exists with him but I do have those concerns about him. I would rather take an up and comer like Calvin or AJ who has not yet reached his pinnacle instead of a guy potentially on his way down. Even if 32 is not the point of decline for him, he is certainly past his prime..

That and a pure distain and bias for any Pats player...

[2ksports]

Heres my problem with Moss at #1.. This is WR that is a poor route runner and has relied completely on his god given speed and ability to make plays in the NFL. He has simply been faster, taller and a better leaper with superior hands. Thats how he does it and has for a long time. Which leads me to his age.. He is 32 years old. He is getting to that magic age where WRs seem to decline and some decline very fast. Granted he has the "freak factor" and maybe his abilities dont drop as much as I fear they may. You also must consider the QB .. Yes its Tom terrific Brady but he is coming off a major knee injury. (see Carson Palmer) ...

For those reasons, I have Moss 4th behind the other big 3 and personally like AJ this year as I beleive the Houston offense is going to explode this year. They have the weapons at every skill position. As long as Schaub can stay healthy, they are posied for a HUGE year... Just my .02

Feel free to pass on him...the plain fact of the matter remains that NO receiver has the upside of Randy Moss. It's really that simple. And to be completely honest...32 for a WR is NOT old at all...especially for a receiver that got to take all those years in Oakland off.

I understand your opinion and you may be right.. I cannot deny that the upside exists with him but I do have those concerns about him. I would rather take an up and comer like Calvin or AJ who has not yet reached his pinnacle instead of a guy potentially on his way down. Even if 32 is not the point of decline for him, he is certainly past his prime..

That and a pure distain and bias for any Pats player...

Jerry Rice caught 122 passes in his 11th year so...

[da bears]

L-Fitz has a list of things that I would say go against him that moved him out of my #1 WR slot, some reasonable and some people just can't really explain but they seem to happen every year.
-Half his TD's came with Boldin out(that's 6 in 4 games)
-Warner has to stay healthy
-D-coordinators have had plenty of time to dissect AZ's offense I think it'll be very tough for them to duplicate their success
-He's on the cover of Madden.
-Super Bowl losers usually have down years the next season and they seem like they will definitely follow this path given they hardly made the playoffs in the first place

[petedog9]

and.... Are you comparing Moss to Jerry Rice now? Completely different WRS in styles and Moss is no where near Jerry Rice in overall talent..

[2ksports]

and.... Are you comparing Moss to Jerry Rice now? Completely different WRS in styles and Moss is no where near Jerry Rice in overall talent..

Rice was about work ethic. If you are talking about pure talent, that goes to Moss.

I'll say this though, you don't really see Randy Moss take big licks. At 32, he could very well be in his prime.