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Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

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Re: Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

Postby Free Bagel » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:25 pm

mattb47 wrote:True...but great playoff play doesn't always necessarily translate into the following season. Look at how great Eli Manning played in the playoffs during their Super Bowl run and he really hasn't performed any better fantasy wise following that at all. There are other factors there and certainly Fitz has a better chance at succeeding from a fantasy standpoint than Manning but the risks that move him down people's list are still there which is why he's not #1 on alot of people's rankings around here.


Well, no one here is saying that Fitz is going to go for 2400 yards and 28 TDs next year (believe it or not, that's what his playoff stats prorate out to), just that it shows how much of a fallacy the thought that Fitz doesn't have the same upside as the other two is.

The Manning example is a poor one, because Eli wasn't great fantasy-wise during that playoff run. His postseason stats in that super bowl run prorate out to 3400yds and 24 TDs over the course of a whole season, which is pretty much dead on with the actual regular season numbers he's put up in every season of his career.
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Re: Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

Postby My team is injured » Fri Aug 28, 2009 6:27 pm

mattb47 wrote:True...but great playoff play doesn't always necessarily translate into the following season. Look at how great Eli Manning played in the playoffs during their Super Bowl run and he really hasn't performed any better fantasy wise following that at all. There are other factors there and certainly Fitz has a better chance at succeeding from a fantasy standpoint than Manning but the risks that move him down people's list are still there which is why he's not #1 on alot of people's rankings around here.


Oh, I agree (though I don't like the Eli comparison but that's neither here nor there), and like I said, I have Fitz number 3 and Randy as my clear #1. But the upside for Fitz is certainly there, and it wouldn't be shocking at all to see him just dominate the league this year and put up absurd numbers. He was simply uncoverable in the post-season and despite boldin's per game numbers last year being better than fitz, I expect Fitz to out-perform him this year and it wouldn't be surprising if there was a bit of a disparity in their numbers.
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Re: Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

Postby Sex Panther » Fri Aug 28, 2009 8:03 pm

For what it's worth, Moss is going nuts up against Washington's #1's - 6/90/2 in a little over a quarter last I checked.
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Re: Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

Postby mattb47 » Fri Aug 28, 2009 8:25 pm

My team is injured wrote:
mattb47 wrote:True...but great playoff play doesn't always necessarily translate into the following season. Look at how great Eli Manning played in the playoffs during their Super Bowl run and he really hasn't performed any better fantasy wise following that at all. There are other factors there and certainly Fitz has a better chance at succeeding from a fantasy standpoint than Manning but the risks that move him down people's list are still there which is why he's not #1 on alot of people's rankings around here.


Oh, I agree (though I don't like the Eli comparison but that's neither here nor there), and like I said, I have Fitz number 3 and Randy as my clear #1. But the upside for Fitz is certainly there, and it wouldn't be shocking at all to see him just dominate the league this year and put up absurd numbers. He was simply uncoverable in the post-season and despite boldin's per game numbers last year being better than fitz, I expect Fitz to out-perform him this year and it wouldn't be surprising if there was a bit of a disparity in their numbers.


Yea, it's not the best comparison in the world with Eli but it was just one that immediately came to mind as far as performing better in the post-season than the regular season and then basically reverting back to normal in the following regular season. That's why I qualified it by saying that I don't think they are necessarily "similar" in that respect but the point still remains.

I actually think the opposite of you to be honest...in the past I don't know that defenses necessarily paid more or less attention to Fitz or Boldin in particular but I think there's little doubt now who will be seeing more attention from opposing defenses. And especially given Warner's propensity to like to throw Boldin's direction more anyway, I think Boldin could very well put up comparable if not BETTER numbers than Fitz should they both play all season. In PPR leagues in particular I think Boldin could and will put up better overall fantasy numbers than Fitz will.
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Re: Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

Postby Free Bagel » Fri Aug 28, 2009 8:42 pm

mattb47 wrote:Yea, it's not the best comparison in the world with Eli but it was just one that immediately came to mind as far as performing better in the post-season than the regular season and then basically reverting back to normal in the following regular season.


But that's the thing, from a fantasy standpoint Eli didn't perform ANY better in the postseason than the preseason. He finished right on pace with his career averages almost to a Tee. I mean really, if I tasked you with it, I'm not sure you could come up with another player in the entire rest of the NFL that maintained a pace so similar to his regular season performance in the postseason. In that year, he had:

Postseason: 213 yds per game, 1.5 TDs per game
Regular Season: 209 yds per game, 1.5 TDs per game

It's actually kind of absurd how exactly the same his stats were from the postseason and regular season. I really don't think we could find someone who's numbers were more similar.
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Re: Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

Postby mattb47 » Fri Aug 28, 2009 8:44 pm

Haha...yea, I suppose it was more just his overall level of play as far as leading his team to victories moreso than fantasy production.
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Re: Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

Postby abrunn11 » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:32 pm

I have the top three ranked as follows;

1. Fitz 94/1250/12
2. Moss 79/1122/13
3. AJ 98/1475/10

I guess it depends on what your scoring system is. If everyone stays healthy, I like Fitz' chances of out-producing the other two. I think Fitz is just entering his prime, has the best complimentary receiver, is the biggest redzone scoring threat of three and is an overall load to cover. Moss is the only guy in the group that is capable of scoring 20, and AJ is probably the most talented of the group. I do not think you can go wrong with any of these three, or Megatron for that matter.
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Re: Should Fitz Be The First WR Drafted?

Postby mattb47 » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:58 pm

You really think that the difference for Moss from Matt Cassel to Tom Brady is just 114 yards and 2 TDs? I don't know that we'll have another 20 TD season from him but I definitely think that 15+ is a reasonable bet for him this year...and I'd be surprised if he didn't end up with over 1200 yards (which is just 75 yards per game).
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