Hank_Scorpio wrote:I'm confused, with Fred Taylor out of the picture, why are you projecting MJD to have less carries? I am projecting him to have more carries. In fact, I would be inclined to rank MJD #1 on this league's draft board because of his receptions, and the fact that he is most inclined to have long TD's in the rushing and receiving game.
Please explain your thinking, I am curious to know how you reached your conclusion.
I'm not saying he'll have fewer carries than last year. Just fewer carries than the other RBs.
AP and Turner will get the most attempts, probably 340+. This means a 20 carry game is very likely. Forte and LT will get fewer carries but probably still 300-330. They should still see a lot of 20 carry games.
I think MJD sees more balance between carries and receptions than the other backs, and ends up with fewer 20 carry games so less bonus points. He averaged only a little over 12 carries a game last year. He'll get more this year, but I think it's more likely to be around 18 rather than the almost 20 Forte averaged and almost 24 Turner averaged.
It's really only those 20+ carry bonus points I was concerned about since I think the PPR advantage is equalized by the good PPR RBs having fewer 100 yard rushing games. This is for various reasons. MJD gets fewer 100 yd games because of fewer carries. Forte and LT get fewer 100 yd games because of lower YPC. AP and Turner get more carries and more YPC and end up with more 100+ yd bonus points to equalize the PPR of the other 3.
I might actually be undervaluing Turner in this format by placing him under Forte, because I think he and AP are the only players that are almost a lock to average over 20+ carries and 100+ yards rushing per game and those 10 bonus points are huge and more than make up for the PPR scoring.