Newby Needs Insight

[deanpapelbon]

Hey guys, thanks for taking a look at my squad. I just drafted in a ppr, 1 QB keeper (5). Please let me know how I did and what I can do to improve. I really appreciate any feedback.

QB: Cutler
WR: Fitz
WR: Bowe
WR: Roy Williams
RB: Slaton
RB: Rice
TE: Carlson
RB/WR: Lance Moore

B: Moreno
B: Earl Bennett
B: Earnest Graham
B: Bernard Scott
B: Chris Henry
B: Rashad Jennings
B: Matthew Stafford
B: Jason Campbell

K: Akers
Def: Pittsburgh

[H00KemH02NS]

I've said it in other threads, but I'll say it again:

TRADE FITZGERALD

Why?

1 - His value cannot be any higher. Remember the mantra "sell high, buy low"? It's a mantra for a reason. After that post season performance people are ga-ga over him. You can (I just did) get two 2nd round players for him. Do it.
2 - Warner's limping on the sidelines. If he gets hurt, he loses catches.
3 - Boldin's likely healthy for the season. If so, Fitz loses catches.
4 - The team has said they will run more with Hightower and Wells, their first round pick. If so, Fitz loses catches.
5 - Most importantly, the Madden Curse.

[Wiserman20]

I've said it in other threads, but I'll say it again:

TRADE FITZGERALD

Why?

1 - His value cannot be any higher. Remember the mantra "sell high, buy low"? It's a mantra for a reason. After that post season performance people are ga-ga over him. You can (I just did) get two 2nd round players for him. Do it.
2 - Warner's limping on the sidelines. If he gets hurt, he loses catches.
3 - Boldin's likely healthy for the season. If so, Fitz loses catches.
4 - The team has said they will run more with Hightower and Wells, their first round pick. If so, Fitz loses catches.
5 - Most importantly, the Madden Curse.

To further this point, look at Fitz's TD receptions WITH Boldin playing.. I don't know about yall but I count 3..

IMO this is the year for the Roddy White, Greg Jenning types to shine. Fitz will be a producer, but people are buying too high to use the analogy above.

I don't mind Slaton, but your RB's outside of him are low value guys.. Rice may work out but he's in there with 2 other guys. Same with Graham and Moreno. As an everyday RB2 I'm not sure I love that.

I'd take a look at your league I'd be willing to bet someone stacked up on RB's.. You may be able to get a 2nd Round RB + WR for Fitz if you throw in a QB (no need to keep 3 Qb's especially 2 low tier guys).. maybe sell the upside of Henry if they want more..

Just my 2 cents.. but regardless lose Campbell or Stafford no need to keep 3 Qb's if you're only playing 1. Those guys will more than likely sit on the waiver wire anyways.

-Wiserman20

[H00KemH02NS]

Man, just saw your backup QBs... anything better available you could include in that trade. Campbell and Stafford would be brutal.

[deanpapelbon]

I dropped Stafford for Celek to back up Carlson.

I can certainly see the argument for trading Fitz but I dont see any trades in my league that jump out at me as worthwhile. This is probably because I dont have a clue. He seems like a fairly safe bet to be a solid receiver, a decent keeper, and long term ppr producer. Maybe I shouldnt have used my first pick on him but everywhere I looked people were predicting him to be the top scorer in my format.

I had the 7th pick and the very best backs were gone and I had my pick of receivers. I didnt want Moss cause its a first year keeper, AJ has an injury history and it was a coin flip between Fitz and Calvin. Bowe was the best receiver available in the 3rd round.

No love for Rice in a PPR as a big time breakout? How's my bench look? I had the sense that my starters were fairly strong and that my bench was filled with upside.

Anyway, thanks for all your help. Any other thoughts?

[mattb47]

Hey guys, thanks for taking a look at my squad. I just drafted in a ppr, 1 QB keeper (5). Please let me know how I did and what I can do to improve. I really appreciate any feedback.

QB: Cutler
WR: Fitz
WR: Bowe
WR: Roy Williams
RB: Slaton
RB: Rice
TE: Carlson
RB/WR: Lance Moore

B: Moreno
B: Earl Bennett
B: Earnest Graham
B: Bernard Scott
B: Chris Henry
B: Rashad Jennings
B: Matthew Stafford
B: Jason Campbell

K: Akers
Def: Pittsburgh

Not a bad draft. I am assuming you probably reached for the Pittsburgh Defense and that was probably a mistake but it doesn't seem to have hurt much except that you are very weak at backup QB. Campbell could end up being okay but you better be praying that Cutler doesn't get hurt.

I'd be interested to see where you took a lot of these guys, I like that you grabbed some young guys with upside like Bernard Scott, Rashad Jennings, Ray Rice, Knowshon Moreno and Earl Bennett...they will probably pay dividends for you this season in having those guys and perhaps when you're keeping guys next season.

I'm personally not "thrilled" with the WRs you have as I'm not particularly high on either Bowe or Roy Williams but I think you have a pretty solid group there. Fitz might be someone to trade if you get a really good offer but chances are you won't get someone to pay what he's worth and in a keeper, there aren't many better. I wouldn't trade him unless I got someone like Calvin Johnson or Greg Jennings (you'd need something else too if you just got him) and so unless you can work something like that out, I wouldn't bother. Fitz is a top tier talent at WR in this league and while I don't have him as my #1 by any means (and I think you should have taken Calvin over him), he's easily top 5 for the next 3-4 years minimum in my eyes as he's good enough to perform no matter the QB throwing to him.

I like the group of RBs you have, plenty of potential there.

What kind of players are available on the waiver wire? I don't think you need to be carrying 2 TEs personally so I would use that spot to find another RB or WR who has some upside and that you can at least hold onto for now.

[deanpapelbon]

Thanks for the analysis!

Here's my draft order:

1. (7) Larry Fitzgerald
2. (18) Steve Slaton
3. (31) Dwayne Bowe
4. (42) Roy Williams
5. (55) Knowshon Moreno
6. (66) Jay Cutler
7. (79) Ray Rice
8. (90) Lance Moore
9. (103) Pittsburgh
10. (114) John Carlson
11. (127) Earl Bennett
12. (138) Earnest Graham
13. (151) Matthew Stafford dropped for Celek
14. (162) Bernard Scott
15. (175) Chris Henry
16. (186) Mike Sims-Walker dropped for Rashad Jennings
17. (199) David Akers
18. (210) Brent Celek dropped for Stokely dropped for Campbell

I think youre absolutely right that I reached for Pitt defense, among others. Basically I had an idea of what I was doing for the first 8 rounds and then had a list of sleepers from the forums and took them in no particular order because I had no idea how to value them (used the espn ppr rankings, which I'm sure is a cardinal sin).

Return yards = 1pt per 20yds

Here are the top 50 FA by % owned:

Jake Delhomme
Chad Pennington
Brandon Pettigrew
Laurence Maroney
Joey Galloway
Sidney Rice
Shaun Hill
Kerry Collins
Donald Lee
Marc Bulger
Justin Fargas
Todd Heap
JaMarcus Russell
Matthew Stafford
Johnnie Lee Higgins
Chase Coffman
Carnell Williams
Michael Clayton
Martellus Bennett
Billy Miller
Mewelde Moore
Ladell Betts
Joshua Cribbs
Bryant Johnson
Bobby Engram
Jeff Garcia
Amani Toomer
Mike Sims-Walker
Brandon Stokley
Daunte Culpepper
Tyler Thigpen
Jerome Harrison
Marcedes Lewis
Ronald Curry
Derek Anderson
Chaz Schilens
Brandon Jackson
Andre Brown
Benjamin Watson
Tarvaris Jackson
Jordy Nelson
Laurent Robinson
Matt Jones
Alge Crumpler
Sage Rosenfels
Jerramy Stevens
Daniel Graham
Plaxico Burress
Byron Leftwich
Bobby Wade

Thanks again!!

[deanpapelbon]

Guys I'm thinking of to replace Celek:

Cribbs, Higgins, Mike Bell?

[mattb47]

Well, first of all. I'd drop Campbell as I like Chad Pennington, Jake Delhomme and Shaun Hill better than him fantasy wise for this season. I'd probably grab Pennington personally as he's a low risk, solid QB who will be fine to fill in for the bye week.

Mike Bell is probably the one I'd pick up personally for Celek...if Pierre ends up being hurt worse than we're led to believe, Bell could end up having enormous value in that offense especially if he's getting goal line touches. I think he's worth grabbing.