A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Moderator: Football Moderators

A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Postby Mr.Joshua » Sat Sep 05, 2009 9:01 am

For everyone who thinks that Brady is going to have another season even close to 2007, Vegas has set the over/under on his td passes @ 31. That to me says his ceiling is in the 35 range. They could be wrong but anyone who follows point spreads and such knows that more often than not, they are pretty damn close....safe to say he won't be on my team. Thoughts?
Image
Wilson
Forte,Morris,Ivory,B.Brown,M.Christine,B.Bolden
Cobb,VJax,DeSean,M.Floyd,L.Moore
V.Davis
Posluszny
M.Bryant
Colts
Mr.Joshua
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) DrafterLucky Ladders ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown Survivor
Posts: 2959
(Past Year: 210)
Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Miami

Re: A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Postby pappymojo » Sat Sep 05, 2009 9:26 am

I would take the over.
'nuff said
pappymojo
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant


Posts: 447
Joined: 28 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: boston

Re: A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Postby smackthefirst » Sat Sep 05, 2009 9:39 am

You can't read too much into this yet. The over/under was set at 31 for more reasons than simply what the odds makers think Brady will do, perception being a very big part of that. Even if the odds makers think that Brady will throw 40 TDs they realize that setting an over/under that far outside the realm of "normal" will generate a mass of under bets all of which would have history on their side. By setting the over/under at 31, I think the odds makers have put themselves in a perfect position. Bettors will now be in two camps. The first camp will say that Brady will replicate 2007 and perform well over these numbers and the other camp will say that no QB has ever replicated a career year like Brady had in future years and will perform right at or below these numbers. Plus you have the few that will bet that Brady gets injured and finishes well below these numbers.

And the best part about the over/under is that it will slowly but surely change, and creep up in my opinion. I'd say that by the start of the season, you will see the over/under in the 33-34 range. And, even though I love Brady's prospects this year, even I would have a hard time betting that any QB throws 34 or more TDs in a season considering that's averaging over 2 TD tosses per game.
Image
My Playoff Team - Please Comment
MSchaub, DMcNabb, JFreeman, KKolb
SJackson, THightower, CWells, JForsett, JSnelling, CJennings, QGanther
RWayne, RMoss, RMeachem, MCrabtree, DBowe
VDavis
smackthefirst
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Graphics ExpertEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown Survivor
Posts: 2646
Joined: 16 Oct 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: MD

Re: A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Postby Vlad » Sun Sep 06, 2009 3:13 pm

In setting a line for ANY event,bookmakers are not trying to predict the exact figure.They are trying to predict the number that will give them the closest split of bets on both teams/players,so at the end you pay the winners with the money from the losers and profit on the vig.

Typical example were the Patriots 2 years ago.Did the Vegas folk think the Pats will win by 3-4 TDs every game? Absolutely not,but they looked so good,that that was the only way to generate bets on the other team.
Vlad
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 231
Joined: 3 Apr 2008
Home Cafe: Football

Re: A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Postby Kensat30 » Mon Sep 07, 2009 2:17 am

For the first 5 or 6 weeks in 2007 season, Vegas was still setting lines at around -17 for the Pats when they had won all of their previous games by 20+ points a game. IF you go back and check the scores and the lines, I'm pretty sure you could have taken virtually any line on the pats that year in the first half of the season and won at least 7 out of 8. Vegas knew that most these games were likely to go 20+ points in the Pats favor, but the lines aren't always set based on what the expert prognosticators say the outcome they will be. Casinos make their profits by maximizing the amount of bets on the game and collect the vig. Exposure can really hurt any house that wants to "bet" against itself by setting uncommon lines. I think the Brady line of 31 TDs is ridiculous, but that is apparently where the majority of betters believe the tipping point lies.

I don't bet on sports at the casinos, but if I did I would place a lot of money on the over there. Another serious injury to Brady or to Randy Moss is the only thing holding him back from getting well over 30+ TDs. Remember, these guys got together in one offseason of limited work and broke both the passing and receiving TD records in the same season. That season was their only season to date. Who knows if the potential there has been maxed out? In a perfect world, Randy Moss might flirt with 31 TDs all by himself.
Kensat30
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe Writer
Posts: 6427
Joined: 2 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Postby Mr.Joshua » Tue May 25, 2010 4:29 pm

2009 td's = 28. Came accross last years post and i remembered laughing when he was take 10th overall last year.
Image
Wilson
Forte,Morris,Ivory,B.Brown,M.Christine,B.Bolden
Cobb,VJax,DeSean,M.Floyd,L.Moore
V.Davis
Posluszny
M.Bryant
Colts
Mr.Joshua
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) DrafterLucky Ladders ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown Survivor
Posts: 2959
(Past Year: 210)
Joined: 16 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Miami

Re: A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Postby moochman » Sat May 29, 2010 11:34 am

I was really hoping this was going to be about some new supermodel babe hanging all over Tom Terrific.
Image


I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
moochman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16300
(Past Year: 80)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows

Re: A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Postby Cowboys 4 life » Tue Jun 01, 2010 11:23 pm

I think anyone who thinks that Brady is going to have a year like 2007 is crazy. Only 3 QB's threw more than 31 TD's last years and Rodgers was at 30. Brady threw 28 and we had a few 27's.

I'd take the under all day.
Image
Image
Cowboys 4 life
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerPick 3 Weekly WinnerCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9515
(Past Year: 79)
Joined: 18 Jul 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Somewhere between Silicon Valley and a bunch of Fruits

Re: A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Postby The Lung » Wed Jun 02, 2010 9:00 pm

Besides Randy Moss, who is Brady going to throw to? Do you see Julian Edelman, Torry Holt, Brandon Tate, 30-yr. old RBs or rookie TEs catching 20+ TDs?
(~);}

Image

(~);}
The Lung
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 9850
(Past Year: 61)
Joined: 2 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Disgusted with Mocha Bean

Re: A Tasty Little Nugget on Brady

Postby mattb47 » Wed Jun 02, 2010 9:14 pm

This was from before last season guys...
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Next

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Exabot [Bot] and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 6:47 hours
(and 39 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact