For everyone who thinks that Brady is going to have another season even close to 2007, Vegas has set the over/under on his td passes @ 31. That to me says his ceiling is in the 35 range. They could be wrong but anyone who follows point spreads and such knows that more often than not, they are pretty damn close....safe to say he won't be on my team. Thoughts?
You can't read too much into this yet. The over/under was set at 31 for more reasons than simply what the odds makers think Brady will do, perception being a very big part of that. Even if the odds makers think that Brady will throw 40 TDs they realize that setting an over/under that far outside the realm of "normal" will generate a mass of under bets all of which would have history on their side. By setting the over/under at 31, I think the odds makers have put themselves in a perfect position. Bettors will now be in two camps. The first camp will say that Brady will replicate 2007 and perform well over these numbers and the other camp will say that no QB has ever replicated a career year like Brady had in future years and will perform right at or below these numbers. Plus you have the few that will bet that Brady gets injured and finishes well below these numbers.
And the best part about the over/under is that it will slowly but surely change, and creep up in my opinion. I'd say that by the start of the season, you will see the over/under in the 33-34 range. And, even though I love Brady's prospects this year, even I would have a hard time betting that any QB throws 34 or more TDs in a season considering that's averaging over 2 TD tosses per game.
In setting a line for ANY event,bookmakers are not trying to predict the exact figure.They are trying to predict the number that will give them the closest split of bets on both teams/players,so at the end you pay the winners with the money from the losers and profit on the vig.
Typical example were the Patriots 2 years ago.Did the Vegas folk think the Pats will win by 3-4 TDs every game? Absolutely not,but they looked so good,that that was the only way to generate bets on the other team.
For the first 5 or 6 weeks in 2007 season, Vegas was still setting lines at around -17 for the Pats when they had won all of their previous games by 20+ points a game. IF you go back and check the scores and the lines, I'm pretty sure you could have taken virtually any line on the pats that year in the first half of the season and won at least 7 out of 8. Vegas knew that most these games were likely to go 20+ points in the Pats favor, but the lines aren't always set based on what the expert prognosticators say the outcome they will be. Casinos make their profits by maximizing the amount of bets on the game and collect the vig. Exposure can really hurt any house that wants to "bet" against itself by setting uncommon lines. I think the Brady line of 31 TDs is ridiculous, but that is apparently where the majority of betters believe the tipping point lies.
I don't bet on sports at the casinos, but if I did I would place a lot of money on the over there. Another serious injury to Brady or to Randy Moss is the only thing holding him back from getting well over 30+ TDs. Remember, these guys got together in one offseason of limited work and broke both the passing and receiving TD records in the same season. That season was their only season to date. Who knows if the potential there has been maxed out? In a perfect world, Randy Moss might flirt with 31 TDs all by himself.