The play is Mike Bell, and it's not even close. With the laceration and the MCL sprain to the same knee, Pierre Thomas won't play this week; and they're playing Detroit. With White, you're just praying for what is essentially a luck TD. The Steelers aren't a D that will roll over on 1st/2nd and goal, so even if the Titans move the ball he's no lock to score.
Bell is the way to go. Even if Lendale lucks out and scores, you still made the right play.
JMUduke07 wrote:The play is Mike Bell, and it's not even close. With the laceration and the MCL sprain to the same knee, Pierre Thomas won't play this week; and they're playing Detroit. With White, you're just praying for what is essentially a luck TD. The Steelers aren't a D that will roll over on 1st/2nd and goal, so even if the Titans move the ball he's no lock to score.
Bell is the way to go. Even if Lendale lucks out and scores, you still made the right play.
I agree with the above, no way I would go with Stewart either
If you start LenDale over Bell, you deserve to lose. White's upside is 10 points, his downside is 2. Mike Bell's upside is like 30 points, and his downside is like 7, in the miracle event that Pierre plays, which he almost definitely won't.
Fantasy football is arguably more about matchups than talent. Mike Bell for the win.
Another vote for Lendale here. It's not like he's a guy you draft wanting yardage anyway, so what is the PIT D going to do to him -- hold him to 20 yards instead of 30? Lendale's value is in his vultured TDs, and while the chances of a TD goes down against PIT too, TDs are still more random. Tennessee could score 14 pts and Lendale gets both TDs, and score 31 points a different week with passing TDs that don't do you any good.
Bell, even if Pierre ends up out and Bush limited, is still a bench guy for a reason and I just don't think he'll be that productive. The Saints will just air it out if it comes to that.
taw856 wrote:Another vote for Lendale here. It's not like he's a guy you draft wanting yardage anyway, so what is the PIT D going to do to him -- hold him to 20 yards instead of 30? Lendale's value is in his vultured TDs, and while the chances of a TD goes down against PIT too, TDs are still more random. Tennessee could score 14 pts and Lendale gets both TDs, and score 31 points a different week with passing TDs that don't do you any good.
Bell, even if Pierre ends up out and Bush limited, is still a bench guy for a reason and I just don't think he'll be that productive. The Saints will just air it out if it comes to that.
So you're going to count on LenDale to potentially vulture a TD or two against a Steeler defense that allowed 7 rushing TDs all of last year? For what it's worth, they only allowed TWO RUSHING TDs at home all season. If that's not bad enough, one of those two was Matt Schaub and the other was LaDainian Tomlinson in a game with an 11-10 final score.
Even if you wanted to lean away from Mike Bell, LenDale is not the answer this week.
CBMGreatOne wrote: So you're going to count on LenDale to potentially vulture a TD or two against a Steeler defense that allowed 7 rushing TDs all of last year? For what it's worth, they only allowed TWO RUSHING TDs at home all season. If that's not bad enough, one of those two was Matt Schaub ...
Personally, I would think half of the rushing TDs scored by visitors in Pittsburgh being courtesy of Matt Schaub would go toward my argument that TDs are fundamentally somewhat random to begin with.
I mean, in the bigger picture I'm not a huge fan of Lendale in ANY WEEK for the reason you're pointing out -- you're counting on difficult to predict TDs instead of yardage that should be more stable.
But my point here is that when you have a runner whose production is TD-heavy to begin with, playing any particular D ought to be considered less of a deterrent than it would otherwise be. Especially when your alternative is a career backup for a pass-heavy team whose opportunities are dependent on a game-time injury decision you're trying to predict three days out. So if you drafted Lendale thinking he had value, you may as well attempt to get your money's worth instead of bailing for waiver wire fodder before the season's even begun.
CBMGreatOne wrote: So you're going to count on LenDale to potentially vulture a TD or two against a Steeler defense that allowed 7 rushing TDs all of last year? For what it's worth, they only allowed TWO RUSHING TDs at home all season. If that's not bad enough, one of those two was Matt Schaub ...
Personally, I would think half of the rushing TDs scored by visitors in Pittsburgh being courtesy of Matt Schaub would go toward my argument that TDs are fundamentally somewhat random to begin with.
I mean, in the bigger picture I'm not a huge fan of Lendale in ANY WEEK for the reason you're pointing out -- you're counting on difficult to predict TDs instead of yardage that should be more stable.
But my point here is that when you have a runner whose production is TD-heavy to begin with, playing any particular D ought to be considered less of a deterrent than it would otherwise be. Especially when your alternative is a career backup for a pass-heavy team whose opportunities are dependent on a game-time injury decision you're trying to predict three days out. So if you drafted Lendale thinking he had value, you may as well attempt to get your money's worth instead of bailing for waiver wire fodder before the season's even begun.
Just my 2 cents.
Good luck!
I know this isn't meant to be a debate thread, but I just have to chime in once more here. Pittsburgh, the number 2 rushing D last year allowed 7 rushing TDs all year, including only 2 at home. Detroit, the number 32 (last) rushing D last year allowed 31 rushing TDs all year, including 17 at home. Yet you say:
"Personally, I would think half of the rushing TDs scored by visitors in Pittsburgh being courtesy of Matt Schaub would go toward my argument that TDs are fundamentally somewhat random to begin with."
Really you like the odds against a team that allowed 2 rushing TDs in 8 games as much as you like the odds against a team that allowed 17 in 8 games? Their defensive rankings against the run correspond to the total TDs allowed exactly as one would expect.
Mike Bell wouldn't have been waiver wire fodder if Pierre Thomas had been announced as out for the season. He'd have been a top 100 draft pick. For week 1, you might as well consider him that top 100 pick, with the tastiest matchup humanly possible.
If that isn't enough, Mike Bell scored 10 fantasy points against Detroit last year even with Pierre Thomas healthy and starting.
This one isn't a six of one, half dozen of the other situation. It's just not even close. As far as Pierre's chances of playing this week, it'd be a miracle, and like I said, Bell would be a better play anyway.
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by JMUduke07 » Wed Sep 09, 2009 6:09 pm 
