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Major Trade Help. WHIR

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Re: Major Trade Help. WHIR

Postby sheethappens » Thu Sep 10, 2009 3:00 pm

hmm, my projected numbers for them:

Moss + Schuab + Balt = 120 + 225 + 195 = 540 pts
Colston + Rivers + TB = 100 + 295 + 135 = 530 pts

Moss + Schaub + McFadden = 120 + 225 + 85 = 430 pts
Colston + Rivers + Jackson = 100 + 295 + 60 = 455 pts

I SUPPOSE you could do #1 but I doubt I'd do #2. I probably wouldnt do #1 either because I'd just look to play th match-up game with my defenses and it's actually pretty easy to do if you pay attention. The dfference between Rivers and Schuab is HUGE!!!! It dwarfs the difference between Moss and Colston IMO. I know that everone is just so in love with Moss now that Brady is back but I think that Brady will kill many fantasy teams as he's not healed MENTALY from blowing out his knee (it certainly looked like he was favoring the knee in his pre-season games).
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Re: Major Trade Help. WHIR

Postby jackie hayes » Thu Sep 10, 2009 7:00 pm

sheethappens wrote:hmm, my projected numbers for them:

Moss + Schuab + Balt = 120 + 225 + 195 = 540 pts
Colston + Rivers + TB = 100 + 295 + 135 = 530 pts

Moss + Schaub + McFadden = 120 + 225 + 85 = 430 pts
Colston + Rivers + Jackson = 100 + 295 + 60 = 455 pts

I SUPPOSE you could do #1 but I doubt I'd do #2. I probably wouldnt do #1 either because I'd just look to play th match-up game with my defenses and it's actually pretty easy to do if you pay attention. The dfference between Rivers and Schuab is HUGE!!!! It dwarfs the difference between Moss and Colston IMO. I know that everone is just so in love with Moss now that Brady is back but I think that Brady will kill many fantasy teams as he's not healed MENTALY from blowing out his knee (it certainly looked like he was favoring the knee in his pre-season games).


A couple things. The total points is not the correct comparison. Schaub usually misses a few games because of injuries, while Rivers has been an every game starter over the years. But on a points per game basis, they shouldn't be too far apart. Then you have to consider what a replacement player would do in the games that Schaub misses. I'm not saying Schaub would end up ahead, but I doubt there's an enormous discrepancy.

On the wideouts, I'm not sure where those numbers come from. Moss, with similar settings (Yahoo's basic settings), has been at 287 and 163 points the last couple years. Colston, at 184 and 106. Maybe you project things very differently, but on the basis of past production, there doesn't seem to be a 20 point difference between the two.

Last, there's a value to sheer upside. One can project McFadden to have only 85 points if you believe there's a good chance he'll be unproductive and he'll be stuck in the rotation with Fargas and Bush. But if he does become a force in the offense (something the Raiders want, something they'll give him the opportunity to do), he'll be worth a lot more. It doesn't seem that Jackson will have the same opportunity to be the main back with Lynch still around. Same with Moss -- the upside is 2007-2008 production. I'm NOT saying he'll do that again. But the possibility of something close to that is important. Roughly speaking, Moss and McFadden are guys that might win the league for you. Colston and Jackson (Jackson especially) won't do that, even if they won't lose it for you, either.
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Re: Major Trade Help. WHIR

Postby sheethappens » Thu Sep 10, 2009 9:38 pm

[quote="jackie hayes"][quote="sheethappens"]hmm, my projected numbers for them:

Moss + Schuab + Balt = 120 + 225 + 195 = 540 pts
Colston + Rivers + TB = 100 + 295 + 135 = 530 pts

Moss + Schaub + McFadden = 120 + 225 + 85 = 430 pts
Colston + Rivers + Jackson = 100 + 295 + 60 = 455 pts

I SUPPOSE you could do #1 but I doubt I'd do #2. I probably wouldnt do #1 either because I'd just look to play th match-up game with my defenses and it's actually pretty easy to do if you pay attention. The dfference between Rivers and Schuab is HUGE!!!! It dwarfs the difference between Moss and Colston IMO. I know that everone is just so in love with Moss now that Brady is back but I think that Brady will kill many fantasy teams as he's not healed MENTALY from blowing out his knee (it certainly looked like he was favoring the knee in his pre-season games).[/quote]

A couple things. The total points is not the correct comparison. Schaub usually misses a few games because of injuries, while Rivers has been an every game starter over the years. But on a points per game basis, they shouldn't be too far apart. Then you have to consider what a replacement player would do in the games that Schaub misses. I'm not saying Schaub would end up ahead, but I doubt there's an enormous discrepancy.

On the wideouts, I'm not sure where those numbers come from. Moss, with similar settings (Yahoo's basic settings), has been at 287 and 163 points the last couple years. Colston, at 184 and 106. Maybe you project things very differently, but on the basis of past production, there doesn't seem to be a 20 point difference between the two.

Last, there's a value to sheer upside. One can project McFadden to have only 85 points if you believe there's a good chance he'll be unproductive and he'll be stuck in the rotation with Fargas and Bush. But if he does become a force in the offense (something the Raiders want, something they'll give him the opportunity to do), he'll be worth a lot more. It doesn't seem that Jackson will have the same opportunity to be the main back with Lynch still around. Same with Moss -- the upside is 2007-2008 production. I'm NOT saying he'll do that again. But the possibility of something close to that is important. Roughly speaking, Moss and McFadden are guys that [i]might[/i] win the league for you. Colston and Jackson (Jackson especially) won't do that, even if they won't lose it for you, either.[/quote]


True, but you must also consider the 2+ games that Schuab will leave early and get you less than 5 points and cost you the game. then you have the 2-4 games where he'll play hurt and put u less than 10 points and again seriously hurt your chances of winning. Schuab will flat out cost you 3-4 games a season unless you have another player on your team have a monster week and make up for the lost of points at QB. The point is that there will be weeks where you start Schuab and he gets you jack for points. You will start his backup for fewer games then you will actually start him and he puts up crappy numbers because of injuries.
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Re: Major Trade Help. WHIR

Postby bulldog88 » Fri Sep 11, 2009 4:37 pm

dude .....did you hit the button or not?
QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, K, DST

QB - M. Schaub, J. Campbell
RB - K. Smith, D. McFadden, C. Wells, D. Brown, G. Coffee, J. Davis
WR - R. Moss, C. Johnson, C. Ochocinco, C. Henry, J. Morgan, E. Bennett
K - M. Prater
DST - Chargers, Packers
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