just got offered this trade and ive been going out of my mind with it lately...
i have Kurt Warner, Frank Gore, Santana Moss
and im getting offered Drew Brees, Kevin Smith, Dwayne Bowe
im leaning towards accepting it because Kurt Warner is old and who knows how long he is going to stay healthy, and Santana Moss is a inconsistent bum.... ...on the other hand, Frank Gore is in Prime Time territory for a breakout year, his schedule is juice and they are going to give him the rock
my question here is with Kevin Smith, his team sucks we all know that, but with a rookie QB i see them being a run first team and the Lions have nobody worth talking about behind him so hes the man.
Dwayne Bowe is a giant ? hes a number 1 guy with a new QB and no TE, but the team is garbage...idk
what do you guys think?
Seen it all, done it all, can't remember most of it.
First off, Bowe is the #1 WR in KC and with Cassel throwing to him now I have him ranked at the 14th best WR in the league this year. I have Moss down at #25.
Next, I too think Gore could have a huge breakout this year but they've been saying that every year for the past 3 years now. SF also brought in insurance through drafting Coffee I believe and Gore might not get all the work load there. Even with figuring him to get the majority of the carries, I only have him scoring 20-25 points more than K Smith for the season this year. They are pretty close IMO.
I think that Bowe + Smith = Moss + Gore for points each week. This leads us into the QB comparison and IMO there is just no comparison between Brees and Warner. Though I like Warner, he is a health risk this year coming of surgery in the off-season and Brees will most likely be the #1 QB in the league this year. I think this trade gives you 50-60 more poins for the season just becasue of the QB swap and for that reason I'd make thistrade without any resevation.
"3 trade analyzer websites and it says im giving up too much" - I'm not sure where you are looking, but these sites can be misleading anyway. For what it is worth, I ran this trade on Fantasyguru.com (subscription site - very, very good) and it says that the trade would benefit you in a major way. It says the total expected fantasy points for the 3 players you're getting are: Total Expected: 714 fpts, and the players you're giving up: Total Expected: 663.8 fpts
Brees is an upgrade right away over Warner, since brees is the best QB out there. And Brees is a much more reliable option, since Warner is old and has injury histories, and has looked very very shaky in preseason.
Bowe is a nice upgrade over Moss, IMO. Bowe has fallen a little because KC is looking so bad and his QB is hurt, but Bowe is a major young talent who is the best offensive weapon they have. Moss is just average.
Lastly, you are losing a little at RB, but K Smith has looked great this year, and was impressive last year despite the 0-16 team. He has some upside. Another thing to keep in mind with Gore...take it from a guy who has owned him in several leagues for several yrs...every year is 'the year' that Gore is supposed to have a career year. He is good, but he does play on a bad team and I don't see him becoming an elite fantasy RB