Cotchery: 4-6 points seems just about guaranteed. More than 9-10 points seems highly unlikely.
Marshall: 1-2 points is highly likely. After that, a 6-8 point total seems just as likely as a 15+ point total.
these numbers are somewhat, but not entirely, arbitrary. judging by these somewhat arbitrary numbers, Marshall seems like the better choice. I would take the risk unless you really just need to count on your WR2 to put a few points on the board. Marshall cannot really be counted on for anything this week, but I am projecting Cotchery pretty low, and Marshall vs. Bengals seems worth the risk.
*if your league is PPR, Cotchery gains some upside and Marshall might not be worth the risk.
I agree that Marshall is a bit more of a risk / reward play here, but I like it. I'd go Marshall, unless you think that your fantasy matchup is looking very, very close, and you need a near-guaranteed but mediocre performance from your WR.
Sorry for the lack of info...it has been so long since I last posted here...I forgot.
10 team head to head....DEEP Keeper league. Start QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2Flex (rb/wr/te), K, DST. All TDs = 6 points... and .5 ppr. 5 pt bonuses for 100+ yrds rushing or reciecing... passing 1 pt/25 yrds...rushing and receiving 1pt/10 yrds.
rest of my roster: QB: Rodgers*, Flacco, Sanchez RB: AD*, SJax*, Jacobs*, T Jones*, Bradshaw (for the 3-4 games Jacobs sits), Donald Brown WR: Fitz*, Marshall*, Cochery, Hester TE: Olsen, V Davis K: Kaeding DST: Steelers, Giants
As for my opponent...it will be a very close game....according to the league projections he has the advantage by 1 pt.
I'd say if you need a big-time performance to win, go with Marshall. I have no idea what he will do in Week 1, but he has the potential for a monster game. It's possible that defenses won't be as keyed into him since he supposedly "doesn't know the playbook" and he busts out in a major way. I agree the safe play is Cotchery; he's the #1 option on that offense now that Coles is gone and you'll probably get at least 60-70 yards minimum from him.
If you can't risk a 0, go with Cotchery, he'll definitely produce.