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Re: RBs - 5 booms 5 busts

Postby bazzy_51 » Tue Sep 22, 2009 2:06 pm

2ksports wrote:
mattUTD20 wrote:One of the biggest hurdles a rookie has to overcome is blitz pickup and it was interesting to see Donald Brown out there in the second half in crunch time when Manning was doing his thing. Addai was on the bench for most of the second half last week as well after dropping an easy screen pass and fumbling earlier. In close games, coaches have gone with Brown which clearly shows you who they trust more. Addai is not going to be a featured back again in this offense because he is a decent talent that gets dinged up all the time and is unreliable. His contract is up at the end of next year and I will pretty much guarantee you that he won't be getting a new contract in Indianapolis.


I think not only this week, but week 1 too Brown was the back late in games.


Magine that you feeding off of someone else's facts/comments... :*) :*)
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Re: RBs - 5 booms 5 busts

Postby Sex Panther » Tue Sep 22, 2009 3:59 pm

2 things that stand out about last night's game really stand out -

1. Addai wasn't in for "crunch time".
2. Indy cannot stop the run.

In all honesty, it was too small of a sample size to make any judgements.

Is Indy going to rotate series with their RB's? Are the going to ride the "hot hand"? Are they going to all of a sudden decide that they aren't going to use any rotation what so ever? Only time will tell.

Is the Indy offense going to be able to stay on the field and sustain some drives?

Through 2 games -

Addai 29 touches (23 carries, 6 catches), 116 yards (74 rushing, 42 rec.), 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost
Brown 18 touches (15 carries, 3 catches), 99 yards (59 rushing, 40 rec.), 1 TD

Right around a 60/40 split - I would imagine that the split remains relatively the same for 09 - very similar to 06 w/ Addai/Rhodes.

There are probably going to be some games where Addai frustrates the hell out of his owners (like last night - and I'm one of them), there are also going to be a handful of games when he goes off for 100 YFS & 2 scores - and in that offense, with Peyton at the helm - those games can come against ANYBODY (@Baltimore on Thanksgiving 2 years ago comes to mind 18 touches in a 1/2 for 81 yards and 3 scores).

He is a good receiver, he's an adequate runner, he's typically good in pass protection (missed an assinment last night), and most importantly he has experience in the Colts system.

I agree, Addai probably won't be a Colt when his contract is up - one of the reasons they (the Colts) spent a 1st rounder on Brown - in Indy, they believe it's more system than who they have in the backfield - and regardless of who has been back there, there always seems to be somebody fantasy relevant - Faulk, James, Rhodes, Addai, now Brown - since Peyton has been behind center. As long as Peyton is there, the Indy RB - who ever he is, is going to hold value.

That being said, Addai is going to be a big piece of their offense as long as he's healthy - so will Brown, I think both hold significant value, with, for at least the time being, Addai holding a bit more. There are going to be weeks when he far out preforms his ADP, and there are going to be weeks whe he far underperforms his ADP.

Once January is here and real football starts, is when the Colts will actually lean on 1 back - I'll be curious to see who that is.

Bottom line is the Colts could give a damn how their play calling effects fantasy football.
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Re: RBs - 5 booms 5 busts

Postby 2ksports » Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:04 pm

Bazzy, seriously, I don't know what you have against me. I didn't feel like typing a long thread so I gave short reasons, but I spent a lot of time researching to make an educated guess. I just don't feel the need to post a big wall-of-text to explain everything. You may have a problem with my conclusions, but try to understand that those conclusions were well researched, and not just blind stabs in the dark. I was very confident in my picks and that's why I posted them as it's own thread.

Also, has it ever crossed your mind that you may have not done more research than me, b/c looking at your comments in general and the rosters you posted in the 0-2 thread, it seems to be the case.

See also your previous comments on my predictions as evidence:

bazzy_51 wrote:
2ksports wrote:5 booms, 5 busts, 3 reasons each.

Booms

Ronnie Brown
1) MIA will run to keep Manning off field
2) He's uber-talented
3) he didn't do bad last week, just not enough carries
Not so sure about this one. Yes they will want to keep Manning off the field, but if they get behind it will be through the air all day (and if Atlanta did it to them last week I don't see a reason why Indy can't do the same). Also add the fact that Indy's Run D isn't too shaby, gave up 97 to Mojo last week, but IMO Mojo has a slight edge in valued talent. Not saying it can't happen, just saying I for see an average day for Ronnie, unfortunately.

Busts

Matt Forte
1) bad matchup
2) lacks elite talent
3) they will throw
I'm hoping that point number two means the team, not Matt? Because if your saying that he has no 'elite talent' then last year was a fluke? But more over, last week against the Pack the play calling was just about HORRID. When Forte's number got called he was ready and produced. I don't think that he saw enough touches A. to be counted out this week because of what we witnessed last week and B. had he saw more touches in last weeks game I really do believe the Bears would have won that game. Your talking about giving him the ball more, eating up the clock and not having Cutler at best throwing 3 passes and punting (or better yet 2 and a change of possession). I really think that Forte needs to be taken off this list as I think he will be a KEY component in the passing game this week after the disaster Cutler had last week going down the field. Not the best matchup I agree, but I wouldn't count Forte out for 100 total yards and a score at least.

Joseph Addai
1) lacks talent
2) Miami rush D
3) lack of carries / opportunities
This is the one that I think you missed real bad. Lacks talent? Why is this a key point on both Forte's and Addai's outlooks? Obviously they both have enough talent to be starting on a NFL squad, so to say they don't 'have enough talent' is a bold statement and serves to purpose in telling what kind of week they will produce. I agree with point #2, but if the trio of Taylor/Crowder/Porter (who combined for 9 total tackles and 1 sack last week) don't kick it in this week I see it being a big pay day for Addai. Throw one more point in here about the talent comment, there is a HUGE difference between Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan. Manning is garenteed to open up the box far more then Ryan did against the Miami D. Last point, lack of carries/opportunities. Thats the worst point you made about Addai of the three. Joseph you realize had 21 total touches and was targeted 6 times in the redzone last week? Those 6 redzone targets were outdone only by 5 other backs (DWill, Forte, K.Smith, AP and McGahee in that order) while Brown was only targeted twice through the air and none in the redzone. Which brings me to my very last point on Addai, the guy is still receiving all they redzone plays and especially the goal line carries. He has a great chance to put up huge numbers this week, watch out for it.
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Re: RBs - 5 booms 5 busts

Postby bazzy_51 » Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:33 pm

Ok sorry 2k, I apologize if I hurt your feelings or gave you the feeling that I was just out to get you.

Frankly speaking the internet is about the most god awful invention for people to express opinions, simply because you can not tell the demeanor in which someone is speaking. I'm not replying to your posts to cut you down or trying to make you feel small, its just that in these forums there are a lot of ideas and opinions floating around and I for one think that its best to get them out for people surfing around trying to find an idea about a particular person or situation. Not to mention I for one have had my opinions changed on a lot of these situations just by what other posters have said. I'm not just coming at you to come at you, I'm replying to your posts with my personal opinion about the situation the same as everyone else on this forum is. Sorry if you feel that way about it cuz thats not what I was trying nor intending to do.

The only thing I was saying with my posts is sometimes posts are made blindly and it just looks better and 'more educated', I guess, if you put some stats or facts or quotes in there to back up what you say. Just saying 'a player sucks' or 'a player has no skill' I don't think is a just reason to predict what a player will do. Thats the only thing in your post that pretty much p!ssed me off is because all of these players have skill or they wouldn't be out on the field.

Again sorry if you have been taking offense to what I've been replying, I actually thought we were just having a good 'ole fashion debate. My bad... :-/
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Re: RBs - 5 booms 5 busts

Postby 2ksports » Tue Sep 22, 2009 4:36 pm

bazzy_51 wrote:Ok sorry 2k, I apologize if I hurt your feelings or gave you the feeling that I was just out to get you.

Frankly speaking the internet is about the most god awful invention for people to express opinions, simply because you can not tell the demeanor in which someone is speaking. I'm not replying to your posts to cut you down or trying to make you feel small, its just that in these forums there are a lot of ideas and opinions floating around and I for one think that its best to get them out for people surfing around trying to find an idea about a particular person or situation. Not to mention I for one have had my opinions changed on a lot of these situations just by what other posters have said. I'm not just coming at you to come at you, I'm replying to your posts with my personal opinion about the situation the same as everyone else on this forum is. Sorry if you feel that way about it cuz thats not what I was trying nor intending to do.

The only thing I was saying with my posts is sometimes posts are made blindly and it just looks better and 'more educated', I guess, if you put some stats or facts or quotes in there to back up what you say. Just saying 'a player sucks' or 'a player has no skill' I don't think is a just reason to predict what a player will do. Thats the only thing in your post that pretty much p!ssed me off is because all of these players have skill or they wouldn't be out on the field.

Again sorry if you have been taking offense to what I've been replying, I actually thought we were just having a good 'ole fashion debate. My bad... :-/


Ok, thanks for explaining, and I see your point. No offense taken in that case :)

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Re: RBs - 5 booms 5 busts

Postby SameSongNDance » Tue Sep 22, 2009 8:08 pm

Sex Panther wrote:2 things that stand out about last night's game really stand out -

1. Addai wasn't in for "crunch time".
2. Indy cannot stop the run.

In all honesty, it was too small of a sample size to make any judgements.

Is Indy going to rotate series with their RB's? Are the going to ride the "hot hand"? Are they going to all of a sudden decide that they aren't going to use any rotation what so ever? Only time will tell.

Is the Indy offense going to be able to stay on the field and sustain some drives?

Through 2 games -

Addai 29 touches (23 carries, 6 catches), 116 yards (74 rushing, 42 rec.), 1 TD, 1 Fumble Lost
Brown 18 touches (15 carries, 3 catches), 99 yards (59 rushing, 40 rec.), 1 TD

Right around a 60/40 split - I would imagine that the split remains relatively the same for 09 - very similar to 06 w/ Addai/Rhodes.

There are probably going to be some games where Addai frustrates the hell out of his owners (like last night - and I'm one of them), there are also going to be a handful of games when he goes off for 100 YFS & 2 scores - and in that offense, with Peyton at the helm - those games can come against ANYBODY (@Baltimore on Thanksgiving 2 years ago comes to mind 18 touches in a 1/2 for 81 yards and 3 scores).

He is a good receiver, he's an adequate runner, he's typically good in pass protection (missed an assinment last night), and most importantly he has experience in the Colts system.

I agree, Addai probably won't be a Colt when his contract is up - one of the reasons they (the Colts) spent a 1st rounder on Brown - in Indy, they believe it's more system than who they have in the backfield - and regardless of who has been back there, there always seems to be somebody fantasy relevant - Faulk, James, Rhodes, Addai, now Brown - since Peyton has been behind center. As long as Peyton is there, the Indy RB - who ever he is, is going to hold value.

That being said, Addai is going to be a big piece of their offense as long as he's healthy - so will Brown, I think both hold significant value, with, for at least the time being, Addai holding a bit more. There are going to be weeks when he far out preforms his ADP, and there are going to be weeks whe he far underperforms his ADP.

Once January is here and real football starts, is when the Colts will actually lean on 1 back - I'll be curious to see who that is.

Bottom line is the Colts could give a damn how their play calling effects fantasy football.



Great analysis. Well thought out and well said. So by years end, do you see Addai being a low end #2 and Brown a high end #3 or the other way around.

Also 2k and bazzy, I wish you'd keep arguing becuase that's about the only entertainment I've been getting out of this forum :-b. Sort of like when me and Goody almost when at it in the Moreno thread, pure entertainment. Boy is it slow around here :-? .
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Re: RBs - 5 booms 5 busts

Postby 204BC » Tue Sep 22, 2009 9:49 pm

bazzy_51 wrote:Frankly speaking the internet is about the most god awful invention for people to express opinions, simply because you can not tell the demeanor in which someone is speaking.


Amen to that. Don't know how many times I've found myself in a pickle because people didn't realize I was being sarcastic, which is what I'm doing about 90% of the time. Case in point would be a few weeks ago right here in the leftovers forum. About 50 people got on my case because I said I like to make crappy trade offers. The fact of the matter is, I WAS KIDDING. If they had read my post carefully they might realize it was supposed to make them smile, not get their panties in a bunch.
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Re: RBs - 5 booms 5 busts

Postby Sex Panther » Tue Sep 22, 2009 9:55 pm

SameSongNDance wrote:Great analysis. Well thought out and well said. So by years end, do you see Addai being a low end #2 and Brown a high end #3 or the other way around.

Also 2k and bazzy, I wish you'd keep arguing becuase that's about the only entertainment I've been getting out of this forum :-b. Sort of like when me and Goody almost when at it in the Moreno thread, pure entertainment. Boy is it slow around here :-? .

Thanks.

That's the question isn't it...

Look at it this way, since Addai's career started in 2006, the Colts 2 primary running backs have combined for the following...

2006 - Addai & Rhodes: 2298 YFS (1722 rushing, 576 rec.) & 13 TD.

2007 - Addai & Keith: 2046 YFS (1605 rushing, 441 rec.) & 19 TD.

2008 - Addai & Rhodes: 1590 YFS (1082 rushing, 508 rec.) & 16 TD.

That's a 3 year average of 1977 YFS (1469 rushing, 508 rec.) & 16 TD.

At a 60/40 Split - that 3 year average projects to 1186 YFS & 10 scores for the lead guy & 791 YFS & 6 scores for the secondary guy.

With the sample size we have seen so far, I don't think we can reasonablly say who is going to be the lead back - as of now, it looks like Addai is the starter.

If I had to guess, based on how the Colts have operated in the past, I would assume Addai does in fact see the majority of touches right around 60%.

What we haven't seen is a Colts game where they have a comfortable lead - that's what I need to see, when they are trying to just grind it out - how are carries going to be split then?

Based off of Addai's previous production (and he has been an elite fantasy back when healthy) - I would say that 1200 or so total yards & 10 scores is well within the realm of possibility. At the same time, based off of his somewhat spotty injury history, he could very well end up relegated to back up duty if he ends up missing time.

It really is too early to tell in this situation IMO - the few carries Addai got last night, I thought he looked strong - he had a couple runs of 10+ yards, I liked that he looked a little heated when he got stopped on the 1 dump off Peyton threw his way. I think the presence of Brown will definately serve as a motivational tool - he doesn't want to lose his job.

The guy is only 2 years removed from a top 5 RB FF season, he's only 26 - and he was a consensus top 5 pick last year and he's been to a Pro Bowl - that's his peers & coaches voting for him. That being said, I own him in 2 leagues - and I'm much more content having him as an RB3 (RB3 in 1 league, got him as my RB2 in another) based on the injury history and Brown factor.
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