FLEX help needed!

[ThePrez]

Greetings! Question for my 12 team dynasty league question

Weekly starting positions: QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, RB, TE, WR/RB, K, DEF

Scoring:

Passing -
25 yards per point, 4 pts per TD, -2 Per interception/fumble, -0.5 per sack

Rushing -
10 yards per point, 6 pts per TD, -2 per fumble lost

Receiving -
10 yards per point, 6 pts per TD, 0.5 pts per reception, -2 per fumble

Roster (tentative starting lineup):

QB - Philip Rivers vs Mia
WR - Andre Johnson vs Jax
WR – Marques Colston @ Buff
WR – Mario Manningham @ TB
RB – Adrian Peterson vs SF
RB – Chris Johnson @ NYJ
TE – Dustin Keller vs Tenn
WR/RB - ???
K – Mason Crosby @ StL
DEF – NYJets vs Tenn

My only main lineup change is benching Royal and giving Manningham a shot. Smart move? Just seems risky with Denver spreading the ball around so much.

I also need to sort out who to put as my Flex starter?

Bench:

Pierre Thomas
Felix Jones vs Car
Ahmed Bradshaw @ TB
Rashard Mendenhall @ Cin
Eddie Royal @ Oak
Josh Morgan @ Minn
Julian Edelman vs Atl
Steve Breaston vs Ind
Antonio Bryant vs NYG
Brandon Pettigrew vs Was
Jason Campbell @ Det

I have a couple situations that make the flex pick tough...

Bradshaw plays @ 1pm... I will need to make my move early if I go with him. His decent touch count and 0.5 pts per catch does help him.
JEdelman plays @ 1pm... I will be able to see if Welker is playing. If Welker doesn't play, do I take the gamble? He was targeted a ton last week... but he is an unknown.
PThomas plays @ 4pm... I am not sure if a MBell injury report will be made before the 1pm games? If Bell is out... do I risk the flex with Thomas, or wait to see what he has?
FJones plays Monday Night... might not hear anything about MB3 by then, so it would be a gamble to wait. Luckily my opponent has MB3, so an injury could work in my favor.

Any thoughts?
Thanks!!!

[Jagster87]

I'd definitely make the pick between Bradshaw and F. Jones. I think both of them could have pretty big games this week. The Bucs defense hasn't really been able to stop the run, so Bradshaw should put up big numbers against them. If we do hear about MBIII before Monday's game, I'd say go with F. Jones. He looked pretty good against the Giants!?!?! And that's usually something most running backs don't do, and the Panthers defense, even with Peppers, is not as good as the Giants D...plus they are playing at home, and you know them Cowboys will be playing their hearts out after losing their home opener on that new stadium. I'd say Bradshaw if you want to be safe, or Jones if you like to gamble

[ThePrez]

Thanks!