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Sell 'em While You Can

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Re: Sell 'em While You Can

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Sep 23, 2009 7:17 am

Good points on who's a good buy/sell. Opinions on these guys?- Brett Favre, Willie Parker, Maurice Jones-Drew, Terrell Owens, Pierre Thomas, Eddie Royal

I'd like to hear more points about Slaton's prospects for this season. Is he a "sell while you can", or a good buy-low?
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Re: Sell 'em While You Can

Postby da bears » Wed Sep 23, 2009 8:48 am

Kareighuis wrote:Good points on who's a good buy/sell. Opinions on these guys?- Brett Favre, Willie Parker, Maurice Jones-Drew, Terrell Owens, Pierre Thomas, Eddie Royal

I'd like to hear more points about Slaton's prospects for this season. Is he a "sell while you can", or a good buy-low?

Slaton - buy low for me. He has played up against two of the toughest rushing defenses in the league and there is really no reason to even try to run on Tenn. Their pass rush is not impressive at all.

Jones Drew - I feel like there is always question about him this time of the year but in the end the guy will score, he's dynamic and they need to run their offense through him if they want to win games this year.

Favre - Not really sure what you would need to sell or buy him but I think some bigger games are coming. Minn has had a soft schedule thus far but I think Favre is going to need to win this team some games, AP is great but good passing teams have given Minn fits recently and so far they've only faced Cle/Det.
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Re: Sell 'em While You Can

Postby Fade2White12 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 9:22 am

After two weeks, MJD is on the following pace - 4.8 ypc, 1304 yards rushing, 8 TDs, 72 receptions, 344 yards receiving. That's pretty damn good considering he had a "down" week last week. Their O-line looks great, he has no competition for carries, and he's the most important part to their passing game as well. The only possible concern I could have, which there is no way to predict, is if he were to get injured.
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Re: Sell 'em While You Can

Postby Kensat30 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 12:43 pm

Some week 2 observations for me, I just got finished watching 3 shortcuts.

Hou vs. Tenn
---
Houston - Houston looked good, they watched the Steeler tape and spread out the formation on the majority of plays. Only 2 run heavy formations that I saw all game, both were stopped for loss. Steve Slaton looked good despite the box score, BUT, and this is a big BUT, the guy really hurt himself in this game. Week 1, Slaton fumbled when a helmet hit the ball. Week 2, Slaton fumbled on two seperate occasions while getting tackled. This is a distubring trend for two reasons. One: Slaton's mental state after 3 fumbles in 2 games could begin to affect his play and confidence and Two: More importantly, after each fumble Chris Brown replaced Slaton in the game and it was Chris Brown exclusively on the field at the goalline. After the first fumble, Brown immediately came into the game and played for the entire next series and part of the next one. When Slaton got back in the game he almost immediately fumbled again and it was Chris Brown for the rest of the game. Slaton may have trouble getting himself 20 carries in any game going forward even though he has by far looked like a better runner than Chris Brown.

Tennessee - Watch out Justin Gage owners, Nate Washington is back and he is being heavily targeted. PS - Start your borderline RBs against Houston, they are big play machines. Peterson in the preseason, Thomas Jones week 1, Chris Johnson week 2. I see Houston on the schedule for any starting RB, that guy is in my line regardless of who else I have.
-----

Den vs. Cle

Both teams - are offensive trainwrecks. Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn both believe that you have 4 seconds to throw the ball in the NFL. Denver's "system" consists of throwing 4+ guys out into patterns on every play, usually including one crossing route underneath and Kyle Orton locks onto his first read the entire time and 50% of the time it's that underneath route. I counted a total of 3 plays where Orton was able to connect for a throw greater than 10 yards, and every single time Orton was locked onto that guy as the first read. No WR was the primary or secondary target in Denver. No WR has any fantasy value whatsoever in Denver as long as Orton is Qbing IMO. Marshall = Bust. Royal = Bust. Scheffler = Bust. Might as well start Gaffney or even Stokely in any given week, they are likely to all score similar point totals. Brady Quinn looked about as bad as Orton and Denver, but he has no running game to back himself up and Cleveland doesn't throw 4 guys out into routes on every play. Avoid all Cleveland players, lots of three and outs every game IMO unless they face an extremely weak defensive team. The RT out there is a turnstile, guy should not have been on the field in the second half the way he was playing.
--------

NE vs. NYJ

I thought Brady played much better than the statline indicated. Most analysts are on the bandwagon that Brady is "not right" and needs more time for recovery, but after watching this game my suspicions that the Jets have the best defense in football bar none were confirmed. Rex Ryan knows what the hell he is doing, even Belicheck the genius was slow to adjust and it cost him the game. Brady routinely got off passes (and the majority were accurate passes) when 80-90% of the other QBs in the league would have been taking sacks. Brady and Moss on the field together, combined with the shotgun formation for most of the game, opened running lanes that should have been exploited by Belicheck more IMO. Whatever the case, New England still almost took this game if not for a couple slightly overthrown balls and slightly sloppy play by the backup receivers. Both Edelman and Galloway let some plays on the game that could have taken it for New England. If Wes Welker had replaced Edelman in this game, I think the bounces in a couple critical points in the game would have fallen to New England and this is a field goal win by the PAtriots. I like Brady and Moss as holds right now, definitely would not sell these two, the upside is still there when they are not facing the best defensive team in football. Mark Sanchez to me looks like an ok player, I think all Jets WRs and TEs are a go from this point forward. Keller is easily a top5 TE and should be a trade target, and Chansi Stuckey looks like a pretty good bet for WR3 type numbers going forward. Guy almost has two or three TDs in two weeks now. Leon Washington is looking pretty good as a 40% share rather than the 20% share, but he also may have fumbled for the second time in two games now. This guy is easily a flex starter if not a matchup RB2 IMO.
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Re: Sell 'em While You Can

Postby SameSongNDance » Wed Sep 23, 2009 12:49 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Some week 2 observations for me, I just got finished watching 3 shortcuts.

Hou vs. Tenn
---
Houston - Houston looked good, they watched the Steeler tape and spread out the formation on the majority of plays. Only 2 run heavy formations that I saw all game, both were stopped for loss. Steve Slaton looked good despite the box score, BUT, and this is a big BUT, the guy really hurt himself in this game. Week 1, Slaton fumbled when a helmet hit the ball. Week 2, Slaton fumbled on two seperate occasions while getting tackled. This is a distubring trend for two reasons. One: Slaton's mental state after 3 fumbles in 2 games could begin to affect his play and confidence and Two: More importantly, after each fumble Chris Brown replaced Slaton in the game and it was Chris Brown exclusively on the field at the goalline. After the first fumble, Brown immediately came into the game and played for the entire next series and part of the next one. When Slaton got back in the game he almost immediately fumbled again and it was Chris Brown for the rest of the game. Slaton may have trouble getting himself 20 carries in any game going forward even though he has by far looked like a better runner than Chris Brown.

Tennessee - Watch out Justin Gage owners, Nate Washington is back and he is being heavily targeted. PS - Start your borderline RBs against Houston, they are big play machines. Peterson in the preseason, Thomas Jones week 1, Chris Johnson week 2. I see Houston on the schedule for any starting RB, that guy is in my line regardless of who else I have.
-----

Den vs. Cle

Both teams - are offensive trainwrecks. Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn both believe that you have 4 seconds to throw the ball in the NFL. Denver's "system" consists of throwing 4+ guys out into patterns on every play, usually including one crossing route underneath and Kyle Orton locks onto his first read the entire time and 50% of the time it's that underneath route. I counted a total of 3 plays where Orton was able to connect for a throw greater than 10 yards, and every single time Orton was locked onto that guy as the first read. No WR was the primary or secondary target in Denver. No WR has any fantasy value whatsoever in Denver as long as Orton is Qbing IMO. Marshall = Bust. Royal = Bust. Scheffler = Bust. Might as well start Gaffney or even Stokely in any given week, they are likely to all score similar point totals. Brady Quinn looked about as bad as Orton and Denver, but he has no running game to back himself up and Cleveland doesn't throw 4 guys out into routes on every play. Avoid all Cleveland players, lots of three and outs every game IMO unless they face an extremely weak defensive team. The RT out there is a turnstile, guy should not have been on the field in the second half the way he was playing.
--------

NE vs. NYJ

I thought Brady played much better than the statline indicated. Most analysts are on the bandwagon that Brady is "not right" and needs more time for recovery, but after watching this game my suspicions that the Jets have the best defense in football bar none were confirmed. Rex Ryan knows what the hell he is doing, even Belicheck the genius was slow to adjust and it cost him the game. Brady routinely got off passes (and the majority were accurate passes) when 80-90% of the other QBs in the league would have been taking sacks. Brady and Moss on the field together, combined with the shotgun formation for most of the game, opened running lanes that should have been exploited by Belicheck more IMO. Whatever the case, New England still almost took this game if not for a couple slightly overthrown balls and slightly sloppy play by the backup receivers. Both Edelman and Galloway let some plays on the game that could have taken it for New England. If Wes Welker had replaced Edelman in this game, I think the bounces in a couple critical points in the game would have fallen to New England and this is a field goal win by the PAtriots. I like Brady and Moss as holds right now, definitely would not sell these two the upside is still there. Mark Sanchez to me looks like an ok player, I think all Jets WRs and TEs are a go from this point forward. Keller is easily a top5 TE and should be a trade target, and Chansi Stuckey looks like a pretty good bet for WR3 type numbers going forward. Guy almost has two or three TDs in two weeks now. Leon Washington is looking pretty good as a 40% share rather than the 20% share, but he also may have fumbled for the second time in two games now. This guy is easily a flex starter if not a matchup RB2 IMO.



Always love reading your observations Kenstat. I 100% agree with you on the Jets game, anyone with two eyes would also. Brady was under the most pressure I've ever seen a QB under without taking a sack. It seems all the Jets wanted to do was throw off his rhythm so he'd have to release the ball earlier than he wanted to on EVERY pass play...and it worked ;-D
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Re: Sell 'em While You Can

Postby Fade2White12 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 1:13 pm

Kensat30 wrote: Slaton may have trouble getting himself 20 carries in any game going forward even though he has by far looked like a better runner than Chris Brown.


Personally, I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. In 2008, Slaton only had 4 games where he had more than 20 rushes. In fact, he averaged about 17 per game. With his stature and build, I think I rather him not have 20+ a game. Now, I'd expect closer to 20 touches a game, factoring in about 3-4 receptions per - as long as he's able to do more with those touches than he has so far, and I expect him to starting this week.
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Re: Sell 'em While You Can

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Sep 23, 2009 1:16 pm

Kensat30 wrote:Some week 2 observations for me, I just got finished watching 3 shortcuts.

Hou vs. Tenn
---
Houston - Houston looked good, they watched the Steeler tape and spread out the formation on the majority of plays. Only 2 run heavy formations that I saw all game, both were stopped for loss. Steve Slaton looked good despite the box score, BUT, and this is a big BUT, the guy really hurt himself in this game. Week 1, Slaton fumbled when a helmet hit the ball. Week 2, Slaton fumbled on two seperate occasions while getting tackled. This is a distubring trend for two reasons. One: Slaton's mental state after 3 fumbles in 2 games could begin to affect his play and confidence and Two: More importantly, after each fumble Chris Brown replaced Slaton in the game and it was Chris Brown exclusively on the field at the goalline. After the first fumble, Brown immediately came into the game and played for the entire next series and part of the next one. When Slaton got back in the game he almost immediately fumbled again and it was Chris Brown for the rest of the game.


Now that's a good point. I hadn't noticed that, though Kubiak's post-game talk about being disappointed with Slaton's fumbling, and his lamentations about not getting Benson, would have me worried as a Slaton owner.

Kensat30 wrote:Tennessee - Watch out Justin Gage owners, Nate Washington is back and he is being heavily targeted. PS - Start your borderline RBs against Houston, they are big play machines. Peterson in the preseason, Thomas Jones week 1, Chris Johnson week 2. I see Houston on the schedule for any starting RB, that guy is in my line regardless of who else I have.


I can second the Washington targets part. Good point about the RBs. I hope you MJD owners are licking your chops.

Kensat30 wrote:The RT out there is a turnstile, guy should not have been on the field in the second half the way he was playing.


I've never thought much of RT John St Clair, but DE Elvis Dumervil was doing an excellent job constantly applying pressure. He'd dip his shoulder, put his hand in the middle of St Clair's chest and burst around.
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Re: Sell 'em While You Can

Postby Frank Stallone » Wed Sep 23, 2009 1:51 pm

I sold Slaton after week one, because I had insane depth at running back. Got Anquan Boldin in return for him and I couldn't be happier with that move. I loved Slaton in the pre-season, hence the reason he was my first round pick, but things have seemingly fell apart since then. I guess it helped that Chris Johnson was my second round pick. Still, I'd love a do-over so I could take Randy Moss over Slaton.

I don't see a lot to love about Slaton right now. Granted, he was facing two very good defenses the first two weeks, but he looked absolutely horrible. He has 3 fumbles in 26 touches. I read today that Gary Kubiak was lamenting that the team should have signed Cedric Benson in the off-season. Slaton is a guy that has looked awful, doesn't get the ball on the goal-line, and is obviously deep in his coaches' doghouse. I would sell, sell, sell right now, regardless of how soft his schedule looks. There are red flags everywhere.
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Re: Sell 'em While You Can

Postby BALCO All-Stars » Wed Sep 23, 2009 3:35 pm

What to do with Willis McGahee? I'm a Rice fan, but McGahee has looked solid so far...any chance he becomes the primary back? Or has he already taken it over? And I like this segment, but I think it would be interesting to see what other posters think you can get for said player (i.e. what type of WR should I reasonably target for McGahee?)
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Re: Sell 'em While You Can

Postby SameSongNDance » Wed Sep 23, 2009 3:41 pm

BALCO All-Stars wrote:What to do with Willis McGahee? I'm a Rice fan, but McGahee has looked solid so far...any chance he becomes the primary back? Or has he already taken it over? And I like this segment, but I think it would be interesting to see what other posters think you can get for said player (i.e. what type of WR should I reasonably target for McGahee?)



I'm holding onto McGahee is my one league. He was the top performer for two weeks in a row, beating out the liked of Dwills and Peyton :-b (see sig).I think it's safe to say they trust McGahee the most with the ball at the GL. Also, this RBBC seems to be helping keep him fresh. I really like what they have going now. The downside is that his yardage is moderate and his production greatly depends on him getting atleast one TD a game. So far so good though and I'm inclined to keep thinking that way. BTW, has the ADP of players compared to their actual production ever been as skewed as it has been through these first 2 weeks?
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