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When is it too late?

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When is it too late?

Postby bungle613 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 11:19 am

There is a pretty good debate going on with the pro LT side and the he's done LT side which got me thinking a bit. I am certainly not concerned with LT in a redraft but I have him in a dynasty as well.

When do you deal an LT. The year in year out stud who is aging, more dings, more miles etc... Group Thomas Jones, Randy Moss, Owens etc.. into this.

Do you deal them with years left in the tank and maximize value, do you deal them when there is already rumblings of the decline and get what you can or do you wait and hope and potentially get hammered like the sudden demise of Shaun Alexander or squeeze out the last year or two and retire him.

I watched almost an enitre league I commish get all grumpy about a guy who dealt Harrison and Alexander at the end of 2007 for Colston and a 2nd, quite possibly the most intuitive deal I have ever seen made.


EDIT: I changed the name of the thread as I agree with several others that this is a strategy question, not a roster/trade question.
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Re: When to deal the aging star?

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Sep 23, 2009 12:44 pm

I'd deal him right before his value clearly starts to fall. I'd have dealt LT this offseason if I had him in a dynasty- good combo of rumblings of decline (heck, he'd shown he was mortal) with a good chance/hype of production.

In one of my dynasty leagues, I'm waiting for some teams to finally decide they can't make the playoffs and are willing to deal their older guys, like Owens- I have young guys stuck to my bench and acquired extra 2010 picks.
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Re: When to deal the aging star?

Postby mattUTD20 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 12:52 pm

Why did this get moved to DTKW? This is probably one of the best questions regarding dynasty leagues that an owner has to deal with. Shame it won't get the necessary response in DTKW that it would have in Leftovers.
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Re: When to deal the aging star?

Postby LSUby50 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 2:00 pm

when you hear rumblings of a demise and start to see more injuries. Which means i would deal LT asap. Sure he's got a few big games left in the tank, but he's clearly on the decline. Get what you can for him and let somebody else deal with the weekly nagging injuries, and just hoping for one more breakout game. Its far better to trade these guys too early than too late(aging Rbs especially)
As noted by another poster on this topic(and i clearly agree), RBs dont gradually decrease in production, they drop off a cliff. Thats why some RBs have been All-World one year, mediocre the next, and then cant find a job the year after that. (S.Alexander, Edgerrin, Deuce, Rudi, Priest, LJ, to name a few.)

My advice is to look at FFB players like you would the stock market. Some players values are going to go up, and some are going down, its just a matter of when. Its obvious that LTs best years are behind him. His value is only going to go down from this point. He could hang on and put up decent numbers 1 maybe 2 more years, but why not try to get a young up-and-coming RB for him while you still can. its like trading in a car while it still has reasonable miles on it and can still get some value. No point in driving it until the wheels fall off and then you cant even trade it in...
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Re: When to deal the aging star?

Postby bungle613 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 3:40 pm

mattUTD20 wrote:Why did this get moved to DTKW? This is probably one of the best questions regarding dynasty leagues that an owner has to deal with. Shame it won't get the necessary response in DTKW that it would have in Leftovers.


I happen to agree with you Matt but it is kind of a judgement call. I was hoping for discussion on the subject.

So, the consensus so far seems to be rumblings and injury along with the age is the 3 key factors. So, once LT hit rock bottom in trade value towards the end of last season and we slowly built the hype back up to a first round type pick (in redraft) is when he should have been sold.

It's always that tough.. .what if? decision you have to make to pull the trigger. Redrafts are easy, deal, deal , deal. Dynasties it's like putting together a real deal. Something that will affect you for a long time. Add to that sentimental value (specifically with LT) of LT being the cornerstone for 5+ years.

I am debating on dealing MOss or LT or both right now. LT I can't decide whether his value is too low to deal and for Moss, well. No rumblings, no injury but I think there has been at least a start of an official change of the gurads in the NFL with New England etc... on there way down. May not be this year but no franchise lasts this long as a contender in the NFL.
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Re: When to deal the aging star?

Postby LSUby50 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:00 pm

i think you're on the right track with it. You just have to brace yourself for the fact that LT could have a big game or 2 after you trade him, you gotta keep the big picture in mind, much like the Packers kicking Favre to the curb, opting for an up-and-comer over a guy that was hit-or-miss every game and not sure how many years left. Sentiments and public opinion were against it but teams are in the business of winning games, and you are too, so dont let that get in the way.

As for Moss, i think he's still in his prime, and i think Brady will gradually knock the rust off and be nearly his old self by year's end. But during or near the end of a player's prime is the best time to trade them because thats when you can get best value. You can probably get a younger WR for Moss, maybe even Fitz or AJ,if so id go for it. or possibly a Jennings or Calvin + something else.
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Re: When to deal the aging star?

Postby thejusman1 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:34 pm

This belongs in Leftovers for sure.
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Re: When to deal the aging star?

Postby bungle613 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:46 pm

I'm trying to come up with guys who were once great, written off or at least ability questioned that still perormed at a high level for a couple years. I can't seem to come up with a single name.

The only guy I can think of is Tiki and he wasn't exactly old, it was hsi fumbling and lack of touchdwons that people were writing him off for.
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Re: When to deal the aging star?

Postby bungle613 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:48 pm

Oh, and to get this back into Leftovers I think I would need a new title or it will just get moved again.

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Re: When to deal the aging star?

Postby dolphinz » Wed Sep 23, 2009 4:51 pm

In dynasty, Ya, deal him ASAP... it's better to bail out a year to early on an aging RB, than to wait for that bust of a year (a la Shawn Alexander like u pointed out) and get no value for him... Make a Trade while u still can!!

Help with mine viewtopic.php?f=18&t=449085 ;-D
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