Comm's Waiver Wire Defense Formula, Week 4

[comm1680]

With 3 weeks behind us, it's time to start looking at defensive matchups again.

For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recoverd) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

Code: Select all

Team                 Opponent              Score
Cincinatti           Cleveland              -3303
Minnesota            Green Bay              -1837
Denver               Dallas                 -1756
Chicago              Detroit                -1585
New Orleans          New York Jets          -1425
New York Giants      Kansas City            -1425
San Fran             St. Louis              -1294
Green Bay            Minnesota              -1201
Buffalo              Miami                  -1154
San Diego            Pittsburgh             -1110
Indianapolis         Seattle                -1025
Jacksonville         Tennessee               -804
Miami                Buffalo                 -739
Tennessee            Jacksonville            -722
Detroit              Chicago                 -683
Pittsburgh           San Diego               -471
Houston              Oakland                 -338
New York Jets        New Orleans             -262
Oakland              Houston                 -258
St. Louis            San Fran                -104
Baltimore            New England              -67
Seattle              Indianapolis             -67
Cleveland            Cincinatti               141
Washington           Tampa Bay                234
Tampa Bay            Washington               486
New England          Baltimore                568
Dallas               Denver                  1034
Kansas City          New York Giants         1990


I know a lot of people are debating between Cinci and SF. The formula heavily favors Cinci in this matchup and I'd tend to agree. St Louis has only give up 5 sacks (and can actually run the ball) to Cleveland's 11. Cinci is tied for the league lead in sacks at 10 while San Fran has 6. Both are decent plays though. I really like New Orleans here as they've been flying a bit under the radar. I think I'd stay away from San Diego, despite the matchup but Indy should be a good play at home against Seattle.

[schase3367]

totally agree with the Cinci - Cleveland idea... Cincy is available in my league but I'd have to drop P Harvin to do it... or, I'd have to drop my other defense (Chicago) which I don't really want to do. Oh, what to do!!?

[curtk]

Great stuff...glad you're back!

I have a dilemma. The Bears are available, as are the 49ers (they're the top two available). Everywhere else I've looked has the 49ers projected a little higher, but your formula has it the other way around. Both have produced well and have good matchups, but actually, I think the Lions might give the Bears more problems than the Rams give the 49ers.

Which one should I add this week?!?

Thanks!

[kickureface]

thanks! with all the variation though, im down between NO, denver, indy, houston, dallas, wash. what would you suggest standard scoring wise? i know you said NO earlier but i wonder if you meant near the top of the pickups type.

[Dr.Bloodmoney]

Rollin with NO this week. Thanks again for the updates.

[comm1680]

totally agree with the Cinci - Cleveland idea... Cincy is available in my league but I'd have to drop P Harvin to do it... or, I'd have to drop my other defense (Chicago) which I don't really want to do. Oh, what to do!!?

I would just stick with Chicago. Although they do have a bye next week. So you'll need to consider that.

...The Bears are available, as are the 49ers (they're the top two available). Everywhere else I've looked has the 49ers projected a little higher, but your formula has it the other way around. Both have produced well and have good matchups, but actually, I think the Lions might give the Bears more problems than the Rams give the 49ers.

Same advise as above. I'd be more inclined to go with the Bears. Especially considering K. Smith will probably sit this one out.

thanks! with all the variation though, im down between NO, denver, indy, houston, dallas, wash. what would you suggest standard scoring wise? i know you said NO earlier but i wonder if you meant near the top of the pickups type.

I would go with either NO or Denver there. NO is probably the safer pick.