Comm's Waiver Wire Defense Formula, Week 5

[comm1680]

Week 4 was a surprisingly good week for the formula (considering how early it is). The top 5 teams averaged just under 16 pts, and the top 13 still averaged over 14, with only five below 10 (only 1 below 7). Cinci did well as expected, but SF went crazy with 39 pts. If anyone went with my Saints sleeper, you were rewarded with 28pts, while Indy did decent with 10.

For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recoverd) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

Code: Select all

Team               Opponent               Score
Minnesota          St. Louis               -3288
Washington         Carolina                -2893
New York Giants    Oakland                 -2369
Buffalo            Cleveland               -2287
Philadelphia       Tampa Bay               -2096
Denver             New England             -1835
Indianapolis       Tennessee               -1785
New York Jets      Miami                   -1666
Miami              New York Jets           -1543
Baltimore          Cincinatti              -1426
Cleveland          Buffalo                 -1403
Pittsburgh         Detroit                 -1098
Arizona            Houston                 -1008
Atlanta            San Fran                 -992
Dallas             Kansas City              -968
Houston            Arizona                  -915
Jacksonville       Seattle                  -866
San Fran           Atlanta                  -847
Carolina           Washington               -664
Detroit            Pittsburgh               -454
Seattle            Jacksonville             -242
New England        Denver                   -204
Cincinatti         Baltimore                 -83
Oakland            New York Giants           235
Tampa Bay          Philadelphia              304
St. Louis          Minnesota                 352
Kansas City        Dallas                    401
Tennessee          Indianapolis              693

I'm actually going to go against the formula here and not back Washington. They just haven't performed as a fantasy defense and the Panthers are at home, coming off a bye.

Buffalo, Denver, and Miami are all recommended and in that order:

1. Cleveland will give up turnovers on the road, and Buffalo has been respectable on defense (especially if the team can't run well).

2. Denver is owned in a decent amount of leagues, but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people get scared of the matchup and switch it up. The Pats usually have trouble vs teams coached by former personel, and I think Denver proved they are for real last week.

3. Miami is coming off a huge week to go against the Jets. They're run defense is solid, and I'm not sold on Sanchez handling the pressure. There should be plenty of sacks there and an INT or 2.

[Haypress]

Good stuff brother

[waterproof]

Thanks for keeping this alive

[saemick]

so would you go against the formula and pick up Miami over Indy as well?

[kickureface]

buffalo was a disaster last week, does that get taken into consideration?
just curious why dallas can't get anything going?

[comm1680]

so would you go against the formula and pick up Miami over Indy as well?

Normally I would. I thought about that one pretty hard and if you look at the history between the teams. Neither defense does very well in this matchup. Indy/Ten is one of those games that always seems to be unpredictable. I don't think they're a bad play, but if you didn't already own either, I'd rank Miami a tad higher.

buffalo was a disaster last week, does that get taken into consideration?
just curious why dallas can't get anything going?

Haha, it does though all in does not weigh any week more than another. Considering that was a divisional matchup, away, against a very good running team, I wouldn't worry. Dallas isn't generating enough sacks or turnovers and they're on the field a lot because Romo has been unsteady. I think it's very similar to Green Bay's issue. They're a pretty good defense, but until the offense stops struggling, they're not going to look like it.

[saemick]

The only decent options left for me are:
Colts
Jags
Cards
I know you have Indy listed the highest, but what ate your thoughts on these 3?

[dgcesq]

I just picked up Buffalo. I have to admit, I'm not psyched about it - but every time I second guess the rankings, I end up being wrong. I have to keep in mind that CLE'1st string RB is out, and they just lost their WR1. What offense to they really have?

How does everyone else feel about BUF?

[kickureface]

slim pickings in a standard league, suggestions? perhaps go with washington(gasp)
starting dallas but FA are

wash
oak
ari
sea
hou
atl
jax
tb
kc
cle
det
stl
car

:(

[waterproof]

I went with the Skins. They weren't that bad. I was happy with what I got.