Week 5 did not go as well as 4. I think this shows that we need more data to truly get great results. Still, if you were lucky enough to have one of the top 5 ranked teams, you did pretty well (13 pt avg, with 8 as the lowest). After that, things are mixed. For sleepers/recommendations, Buffalo was respectable with 10, Denver got 4 and looked good against NE but didn't really turn the ball over, and Miami laid a dud with 1 pt, they got a decent amount of pressure in there but Sanchez was able to avoid it most of the time. Hopefully we'll get on track with more info now.
For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.
Team Opponent Score Philadelphia Oakland -3865 Pittsburgh Cleveland -2412 Denver San Diego -2381 Tampa Bay Carolina -2034 New York Jets Buffalo -1821 Green Bay Detroit -1715 Washington Kansas City -1607 Minnesota Baltimore -1490 Seattle Arizona -1457 Jacksonville St. Louis -1314 Atlanta Chicago -1167 Detroit Green Bay -1150 New England Tennessee -1144 New York Giants New Orleans -844 Carolina Tampa Bay -832 Cincinatti Houston -794 Buffalo New York Jets -788 New Orleans New York Giants -709 Kansas City Washington -702 Cleveland Pittsburgh -644 Arizona Seattle -617 Chicago Atlanta -558 Baltimore Minnesota -537 Houston Cincinatti -345 St. Louis Jacksonville -314 Oakland Philadelphia 84 San Diego Denver 180 Tennessee New England 453
Lots of obvious names here, if you have any of Philly, Pitt, NYJ, GB, or Minn, you are all set.
For the rest: Denver is a good play. I'd be a little concerned given it's a rivalry game, but think they match up well. Tampa is a good sleeper at home vs the Panthers. Carolina gives up the most fantasy points and can't spread the ball like the Eagles did. I'd consider Washington if you get points for lower scores. KC allows a lot of sacks, but not much else. Seattle and Jacksonville are also nice sleepers, both at home. I think I'd prefer Jacksonville despite the blowout loss.
I'd rank the sleepers: Tampa, Jax, Seattle, Washington.
I know carolina is on the road, but are they such a horrendous play this week? Josh Johnson is himself quite a little turnover machine and they have no running game; I would expect a really ugly game even if Carolina isn't a good team anymore.
Mad, Mad Props for putting this list together. Ive been playing the "matchup, not the team" weekly defense theory for several years now...
I am a little concerned/confused on seattle being 9th ranked...I know what they did last week, but we KNOW that Ari is gonna put up more than 20 points...I would think NE is a better play vs a desperate Titans...
by FearandLoathinginATL » Wed Oct 14, 2009 2:56 am
im surprised more people arent talking about JAX this week... The Rams have only scored 4 TDs and have made 2 FGs out of 5 attempts this season. Jacksonville has allowed 14 offensive TDs over 5 games but 7(Schaub 3, Hasselbeck 4) of those were in just 2 games and all were through the air. I dont see Marc Bulger repeating anything near that. Plus in the past 2 weeks STL has given up something like 5 sacks, 3 TDs, 3 fumbles, and a INT.
Jacksonville is not a spectacular defense by any means, but its hard not to play well against an offense like STL. I think theyre giving up 18 ppg, and I know week 4 was a bit of an anomaly, but still double digits every other week.
neither Denver nor Green Bay really should be on the WW at this point... GB has been solid throughout, and Denver is the #4 scoring defense under standard Yahoo leagues. Both of those teams make a great defense to be your "default" play, grabbing WW defenses only when a good option is there.
Best... fantasy advice... EVER. :D
[quote]Always play the players who will get you the most points[/quote]