Comm's Waiver Wire Defense Formula, Week 6

[comm1680]

Week 5 did not go as well as 4. I think this shows that we need more data to truly get great results. Still, if you were lucky enough to have one of the top 5 ranked teams, you did pretty well (13 pt avg, with 8 as the lowest). After that, things are mixed. For sleepers/recommendations, Buffalo was respectable with 10, Denver got 4 and looked good against NE but didn't really turn the ball over, and Miami laid a dud with 1 pt, they got a decent amount of pressure in there but Sanchez was able to avoid it most of the time. Hopefully we'll get on track with more info now.

For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

Code: Select all

Team                Opponent              Score
Philadelphia        Oakland                -3865
Pittsburgh          Cleveland              -2412
Denver              San Diego              -2381
Tampa Bay           Carolina               -2034
New York Jets       Buffalo                -1821
Green Bay           Detroit                -1715
Washington          Kansas City            -1607
Minnesota           Baltimore              -1490
Seattle             Arizona                -1457
Jacksonville        St. Louis              -1314
Atlanta             Chicago                -1167
Detroit             Green Bay              -1150
New England         Tennessee              -1144
New York Giants     New Orleans             -844
Carolina            Tampa Bay               -832
Cincinatti          Houston                 -794
Buffalo             New York Jets           -788
New Orleans         New York Giants         -709
Kansas City         Washington              -702
Cleveland           Pittsburgh              -644
Arizona             Seattle                 -617
Chicago             Atlanta                 -558
Baltimore           Minnesota               -537
Houston             Cincinatti              -345
St. Louis           Jacksonville            -314
Oakland             Philadelphia              84
San Diego           Denver                   180
Tennessee           New England              453

Lots of obvious names here, if you have any of Philly, Pitt, NYJ, GB, or Minn, you are all set.

For the rest: Denver is a good play. I'd be a little concerned given it's a rivalry game, but think they match up well. Tampa is a good sleeper at home vs the Panthers. Carolina gives up the most fantasy points and can't spread the ball like the Eagles did. I'd consider Washington if you get points for lower scores. KC allows a lot of sacks, but not much else. Seattle and Jacksonville are also nice sleepers, both at home. I think I'd prefer Jacksonville despite the blowout loss.

I'd rank the sleepers: Tampa, Jax, Seattle, Washington.

[silverZ]

Stuck deciding between WAS, CAR, TB...went with your ranking and took TB at home since I'm clueless.

[eaglesfan]

I'm torn between Denver, Tampa, and Wash

[sirchadwick1]

GB is on the wire. I'll see if I can get them as a FA at the right time.

If not I'm pretty sure I'm rolling w/ Tampa. Denver is playing SD at home in a rivalry game and I'm nervous there.

[Amazing Oopah]

I know carolina is on the road, but are they such a horrendous play this week? Josh Johnson is himself quite a little turnover machine and they have no running game; I would expect a really ugly game even if Carolina isn't a good team anymore.

[Slackjaw_ffc]

Mad, Mad Props for putting this list together. Ive been playing the "matchup, not the team" weekly defense theory for several years now...

I am a little concerned/confused on seattle being 9th ranked...I know what they did last week, but we KNOW that Ari is gonna put up more than 20 points...I would think NE is a better play vs a desperate Titans...

Thanks again, and just offering an opinion.

[FearandLoathinginATL]

im surprised more people arent talking about JAX this week... The Rams have only scored 4 TDs and have made 2 FGs out of 5 attempts this season. Jacksonville has allowed 14 offensive TDs over 5 games but 7(Schaub 3, Hasselbeck 4) of those were in just 2 games and all were through the air. I dont see Marc Bulger repeating anything near that. Plus in the past 2 weeks STL has given up something like 5 sacks, 3 TDs, 3 fumbles, and a INT.

Jacksonville is not a spectacular defense by any means, but its hard not to play well against an offense like STL. I think theyre giving up 18 ppg, and I know week 4 was a bit of an anomaly, but still double digits every other week.

[Cooner]

neither Denver nor Green Bay really should be on the WW at this point... GB has been solid throughout, and Denver is the #4 scoring defense under standard Yahoo leagues. Both of those teams make a great defense to be your "default" play, grabbing WW defenses only when a good option is there.

[jmtigers]

Green Bay, Tampa, or Jax this week?

[silverZ]

I consider GB to be a borderline everyweek start, and they're playing the Lions likely without Meagtron. So grab GB and hold until they have a tough matchup.