Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining - Week 8 Update

[mattb47]

***UPDATED for Week 8***

I put one out before that was just the AFC but I did the NFC too and I'm just going to put them all together here so it's easier. This is just a look at the remaining schedules for each team and is a rough barometer of how easy or difficult each team's remaining schedule is in both the passing and running games.

This is updated through all of the stats from Week 6. So this covers the schedules from week 7 through week 16 of the regular season.

(+1) Good Matchup = 21st-32nd Ranked Defenses
(+.5) Neutral Matchup = 11th-20th Ranked Defenses
(-1) Bad Matchup = 1st-10th Ranked Defenses

AFC

Best Passing Schedules:
1. Cincinnati Bengals - +6 Rating (4 good, 4 neutral, 0 bad)
2. Cleveland Browns - +6 Rating (4 good, 4 neutral, 0 bad)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers - +3.5 Rating (5 good, 1 neutral, 2 bad)
4. Tennessee Titans - +3.5 Rating (4 good, 3 neutral, 2 bad)
5. Buffalo Bills - +3 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 2 bad)
6. Oakland Raiders - +3 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 2 bad)
7. Kansas City Chiefs - +2.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 2 bad)
8. San Diego Chargers - +2.5 Rating (5 good, 1 neutral, 3 bad)
9. Indianapolis Colts - +2 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
10. Baltimore Ravens - +1.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 3 bad)
11. Houston Texans - +1 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
12. Jacksonville Jaguars - 0 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 4 bad)
13. Denver Broncos - -.5 Rating (2 good, 3 neutral, 4 bad)
14. New York Jets - -1 Rating (2 good, 2 neutral, 4 bad)
15. New England Patriots - -1.5 Rating (1 good, 3 neutral, 4 bad)
16. Miami Dolphins - -2 Rating (2 good, 2 neutral, 5 bad)

Best Running Schedules:
1. Miami Dolphins - +5.5 Rating (5 good, 3 neutral, 1 bad)
2. New York Jets - +4.5 Rating (4 good, 3 neutral, 1 bad)
3. Denver Broncos - +3.5 Rating (4 good, 3 neutral, 2 bad)
4. Buffalo Bills - +3 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 2 bad)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars - +2 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
6. Oakland Raiders - +1.5 Rating (4 good, 1 neutral, 3 bad)
7. San Diego Chargers - +1.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 3 bad)
8. Kansas City Chiefs - +1.5 Rating (4 good, 1 neutral, 3 bad)
9. Tennessee Titans - +1.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 3 bad)
10. Cincinnati Bengals - +1.5 Rating (4 good, 1 neutral, 3 bad)
11. Houston Texans - +1.5 Rating (1 good, 5 neutral, 2 bad)
12. New England Patriots - +1 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
13. Cleveland Browns - +1 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
14. Indianapolis Colts - 0 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 4 bad)
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - -.5 Rating (3 good, 1 neutral, 4 bad)
16. Baltimore Ravens - -1 Rating (1 good, 4 neutral, 4 bad)


NFC

Best Passing Schedules:
1. Green Bay Packers - +6.5 Rating (4 good, 5 neutral, 0 bad)
2. Detroit Lions - +6 Rating (6 good, 2 neutral, 1 bad)
5. St. Louis Rams - +5 Rating (4 good, 4 neutral, 0 bad)
4. Seattle Seahawks - +5.5 Rating (5 good, 3 neutral, 1 bad)
6. Arizona Cardinals - +5.5 Rating (5 good, 3 neutral, 1 bad)
3. Chicago Bears - +4 Rating (5 good, 2 neutral, 2 bad)
7. Minnesota Vikings - +2.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 2 bad)
8. New Orleans Saints - +2 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
9. San Francisco 49ers - +2 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
10. Carolina Panthers - +1 Rating (2 good, 4 neutral, 3 bad)
11. Washington Redskins - +1 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
12. Tampa Bay Bucs - 0 Rating (1 good, 4 neutral, 3 bad)
13. Philadelphia Eagles - 0 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 4 bad)
14. New York Giants - -2.5 Rating (2 good, 1 neutral, 5 bad)
15. Dallas Cowboys - -3 Rating (0 good, 4 neutral, 5 bad)
16. Atlanta Falcons - -4.5 Rating (0 good, 3 neutral, 6 bad)

Best Running Schedules:
1. New Orleans Saints - +8 Rating (7 good, 2 neutral, 0 bad)
2. Dallas Cowboys - +5 Rating (4 good, 4 neutral, 1 bad)
3. New York Giants - +4.5 Rating (4 good, 3 neutral, 1 bad)
4. Atlanta Falcons - +4 Rating (5 good, 2 neutral, 2 bad)
5. Philadelphia Eagles - +3 Rating (3 good, 4 neutral, 2 bad)
6. Washington Redskins - +2 Rating (2 good, 4 neutral, 2 bad)
7. Seattle Seahawks - +1.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 3 bad)
8. San Francisco 49ers - +1.5 Rating (0 good, 7 neutral, 2 bad)
9. Arizona Cardinals - +1.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 3 bad)
10. Minnesota Vikings - +1.5 Rating (1 good, 5 neutral, 2 bad)
11. Tampa Bay Bucs - +1 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
12. Carolina Panthers - 0 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 4 bad)
13. Green Bay Packers - -1 Rating (1 good, 4 neutral, 4 bad)
14. St. Louis Rams - -1.5 Rating (1 good, 3 neutral, 4 bad)
15. Detroit Lions - -2 Rating (2 good, 2 neutral, 5 bad)
16. Chicago Bears - -2 Rating (2 good, 2 neutral, 5 bad)

I figure at the very least this can generate some ideas on who to target and who to sell now before they have a tougher end of the year schedule. This is obviously only one part of the "formula" in terms of who you want or don't want on your team but it can be a helpful tool as we come towards the halfway point of he regular season fantasy wise here soon.

Thoughts?

[2ksports]

So based on this I should sell brady and moss

[bceagles04]

So based on this I should sell brady and moss

I have moss and have zero plans to sell.

[mattb47]

So based on this I should sell brady and moss

Like I said...this is only one part of the "formula"...some guys are going to be immune to their schedules like great players such as Brady and Moss or Adrian Peterson...etc. This is the most helpful for guys whose performance can range a bit more depending on the matchups (most other guys in the league fall into this category).

[fbonzai]

Interesting info. Thanks for doing this and sharing it with us!

[Kareighuis]

So based on this I should sell brady and moss

Like I said...this is only one part of the "formula"...some guys are going to be immune to their schedules like great players such as Brady and Moss or Adrian Peterson...etc. This is the most helpful for guys whose performance can range a bit more depending on the matchups (most other guys in the league fall into this category).

Some guys you won't trade no matter what, like Brady. Some have a very favorable matchup (Derek Anderson with the 2nd-most favorable passing schedule) but it doesn't significantly change how they're viewed.

Useful notes, based on this system-

-Mark Sanchez is not a buy-low- he plays 4 more games against top-10 pass defenses

-Consider trading for Thomas Jones- his owner might think he's selling high, but in fact the Jets play 5 defenses in the bottom 10 against the run

-While the Jets have an extreme pass and run-defense schedule rating disparity, the Chiefs have a +3 pass defense schedule (3 good, 4 neutral) and a +4 run defense (5 good, 2 neutral). In a favorable matchup, LJ put up useful numbers this Sunday- 83 rush, 12 recv

-LT (from nearly all reports) looked good and has a favorable schedule with 4 good matchups and the third most-favorable AFC run schedule with a +4

-Cedric Benson will be a yo-yo this season with 4 run-defenses in the top-10, while 4 others are in the bottom 3rd.

-Is Ray Rice matchup-immune? He faces 4 top-10 run defenses and has a -1 run-defense schedule rating.

-Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler both have underperforming running game complements and favorable pass defense schedule ratings, Rodgers with the best in the NFL (+7.5, 5 good, 5 neutral), Cutler 3rd-best in the NFC with 7 pass defenses in the bottom 3rd and only 2 in the top 10.

-Whatever you think of the NFC East, McNabb, Eli and Romo all play 5 top-10 pass defenses, or half the remaining fantasy football schedule.

-Matt Ryan plays the most difficult pass-defense schedule rating in the NFL with a -3.5 and 6 matchups against top-10 pass defenses.

-NO, Dallas, Atlanta, NYG and Philly all have difficult pass schedule ratings but favorable run schedule ratings. The Saints have the most-favorable run schedule rating with a +7 and 7 matchups against run defenses in the lower third of the league. Pierre Thomas and Michael Turner as buy-lowers?

Great post, Matt! Thanks for sharing.

[mattb47]

Right now I'd probably put Ray Rice entering the "matchup-immune" category...he's such a big part of their passing game too that even if they have to pass a lot (like last week), I still feel confident playing him because he's virtually a lock for at least 100+ total yards a game right now.

This is what I'm looking at doing based on this a bit:

Buy
- Pierre Thomas
- Marion Barber/Felix Jones
- Michael Turner
- Aaron Rodgers
- Jay Cutler
- Carson Palmer
- Thomas Jones
- Ronnie Brown
- LT

Sell
- Rashard Mendenhall
- Steve Slaton
- Steven Jackson
- Ryan Grant
- Matt Forte
- Matt Ryan
- Tony Romo
- Donovan McNabb
- Eli Manning

[mattb47]

It's also worth noting that the only "bad" matchup the Saints have left this season against the run is this next week against Miami who has been good against the run this year...after that they have 7 games against teams ranked 21st or worse in run defense and 2 teams who are middle of the road. Pretty good time to buy after this week if they struggle at all to run it.

[SameSongNDance]

I want to address Benson "yo-yoing" this year. Remember, he ran for 100+ yards against PIT and BAL but seemed to struggle against CLE and HOU. It's perplexing.

[da bears]

I want to address Benson "yo-yoing" this year. Remember, he ran for 100+ yards against PIT and BAL but seemed to struggle against CLE and HOU. It's perplexing.

That is crazy just looked back at the box scores and it really isn't like they were way behind in any of the games when he did poorly. The game they were the furthest behind was the Pitt game unless I went through wrong. But more importantly great write up I think these types of threads are some of the most helpful to fantasy players for making a real run at a championship. It's like playing poker to me, there's lots of luck and all you can control is putting yourself in the best position to win.