Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining - Week 8 Update - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining - Week 8 Update

Moderator: Football Moderators

Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining - Week 8 Update

Postby mattb47 » Tue Oct 20, 2009 2:19 am

***UPDATED for Week 8***

I put one out before that was just the AFC but I did the NFC too and I'm just going to put them all together here so it's easier. This is just a look at the remaining schedules for each team and is a rough barometer of how easy or difficult each team's remaining schedule is in both the passing and running games.

This is updated through all of the stats from Week 6. So this covers the schedules from week 7 through week 16 of the regular season.

(+1) Good Matchup = 21st-32nd Ranked Defenses
(+.5) Neutral Matchup = 11th-20th Ranked Defenses
(-1) Bad Matchup = 1st-10th Ranked Defenses

AFC

Best Passing Schedules:
1. Cincinnati Bengals - +6 Rating (4 good, 4 neutral, 0 bad)
2. Cleveland Browns - +6 Rating (4 good, 4 neutral, 0 bad)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers - +3.5 Rating (5 good, 1 neutral, 2 bad)
4. Tennessee Titans - +3.5 Rating (4 good, 3 neutral, 2 bad)
5. Buffalo Bills - +3 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 2 bad)
6. Oakland Raiders - +3 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 2 bad)
7. Kansas City Chiefs - +2.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 2 bad)
8. San Diego Chargers - +2.5 Rating (5 good, 1 neutral, 3 bad)
9. Indianapolis Colts - +2 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
10. Baltimore Ravens - +1.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 3 bad)
11. Houston Texans - +1 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
12. Jacksonville Jaguars - 0 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 4 bad)
13. Denver Broncos - -.5 Rating (2 good, 3 neutral, 4 bad)
14. New York Jets - -1 Rating (2 good, 2 neutral, 4 bad)
15. New England Patriots - -1.5 Rating (1 good, 3 neutral, 4 bad)
16. Miami Dolphins - -2 Rating (2 good, 2 neutral, 5 bad)

Best Running Schedules:
1. Miami Dolphins - +5.5 Rating (5 good, 3 neutral, 1 bad)
2. New York Jets - +4.5 Rating (4 good, 3 neutral, 1 bad)
3. Denver Broncos - +3.5 Rating (4 good, 3 neutral, 2 bad)
4. Buffalo Bills - +3 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 2 bad)
5. Jacksonville Jaguars - +2 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
6. Oakland Raiders - +1.5 Rating (4 good, 1 neutral, 3 bad)
7. San Diego Chargers - +1.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 3 bad)
8. Kansas City Chiefs - +1.5 Rating (4 good, 1 neutral, 3 bad)
9. Tennessee Titans - +1.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 3 bad)
10. Cincinnati Bengals - +1.5 Rating (4 good, 1 neutral, 3 bad)
11. Houston Texans - +1.5 Rating (1 good, 5 neutral, 2 bad)
12. New England Patriots - +1 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
13. Cleveland Browns - +1 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
14. Indianapolis Colts - 0 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 4 bad)
15. Pittsburgh Steelers - -.5 Rating (3 good, 1 neutral, 4 bad)
16. Baltimore Ravens - -1 Rating (1 good, 4 neutral, 4 bad)


NFC

Best Passing Schedules:
1. Green Bay Packers - +6.5 Rating (4 good, 5 neutral, 0 bad)
2. Detroit Lions - +6 Rating (6 good, 2 neutral, 1 bad)
5. St. Louis Rams - +5 Rating (4 good, 4 neutral, 0 bad)
4. Seattle Seahawks - +5.5 Rating (5 good, 3 neutral, 1 bad)
6. Arizona Cardinals - +5.5 Rating (5 good, 3 neutral, 1 bad)
3. Chicago Bears - +4 Rating (5 good, 2 neutral, 2 bad)
7. Minnesota Vikings - +2.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 2 bad)
8. New Orleans Saints - +2 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
9. San Francisco 49ers - +2 Rating (4 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
10. Carolina Panthers - +1 Rating (2 good, 4 neutral, 3 bad)
11. Washington Redskins - +1 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
12. Tampa Bay Bucs - 0 Rating (1 good, 4 neutral, 3 bad)
13. Philadelphia Eagles - 0 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 4 bad)
14. New York Giants - -2.5 Rating (2 good, 1 neutral, 5 bad)
15. Dallas Cowboys - -3 Rating (0 good, 4 neutral, 5 bad)
16. Atlanta Falcons - -4.5 Rating (0 good, 3 neutral, 6 bad)

Best Running Schedules:
1. New Orleans Saints - +8 Rating (7 good, 2 neutral, 0 bad)
2. Dallas Cowboys - +5 Rating (4 good, 4 neutral, 1 bad)
3. New York Giants - +4.5 Rating (4 good, 3 neutral, 1 bad)
4. Atlanta Falcons - +4 Rating (5 good, 2 neutral, 2 bad)
5. Philadelphia Eagles - +3 Rating (3 good, 4 neutral, 2 bad)
6. Washington Redskins - +2 Rating (2 good, 4 neutral, 2 bad)
7. Seattle Seahawks - +1.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 3 bad)
8. San Francisco 49ers - +1.5 Rating (0 good, 7 neutral, 2 bad)
9. Arizona Cardinals - +1.5 Rating (3 good, 3 neutral, 3 bad)
10. Minnesota Vikings - +1.5 Rating (1 good, 5 neutral, 2 bad)
11. Tampa Bay Bucs - +1 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 3 bad)
12. Carolina Panthers - 0 Rating (3 good, 2 neutral, 4 bad)
13. Green Bay Packers - -1 Rating (1 good, 4 neutral, 4 bad)
14. St. Louis Rams - -1.5 Rating (1 good, 3 neutral, 4 bad)
15. Detroit Lions - -2 Rating (2 good, 2 neutral, 5 bad)
16. Chicago Bears - -2 Rating (2 good, 2 neutral, 5 bad)

I figure at the very least this can generate some ideas on who to target and who to sell now before they have a tougher end of the year schedule. This is obviously only one part of the "formula" in terms of who you want or don't want on your team but it can be a helpful tool as we come towards the halfway point of he regular season fantasy wise here soon.

Thoughts?
Last edited by mattb47 on Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:16 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining

Postby 2ksports » Tue Oct 20, 2009 4:01 am

So based on this I should sell brady and moss
2ksports
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar

Posts: 1276
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 19 Oct 2005
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining

Postby bceagles04 » Tue Oct 20, 2009 9:30 am

2ksports wrote:So based on this I should sell brady and moss


I have moss and have zero plans to sell.
bceagles04
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 96
Joined: 8 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining

Postby mattb47 » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:29 am

2ksports wrote:So based on this I should sell brady and moss


Like I said...this is only one part of the "formula"...some guys are going to be immune to their schedules like great players such as Brady and Moss or Adrian Peterson...etc. This is the most helpful for guys whose performance can range a bit more depending on the matchups (most other guys in the league fall into this category).
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining

Postby fbonzai » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:00 am

Interesting info. Thanks for doing this and sharing it with us!
fbonzai
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 30
Joined: 15 Oct 2009
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining

Postby Kareighuis » Wed Oct 21, 2009 5:11 am

mattb47 wrote:
2ksports wrote:So based on this I should sell brady and moss


Like I said...this is only one part of the "formula"...some guys are going to be immune to their schedules like great players such as Brady and Moss or Adrian Peterson...etc. This is the most helpful for guys whose performance can range a bit more depending on the matchups (most other guys in the league fall into this category).


Some guys you won't trade no matter what, like Brady. Some have a very favorable matchup (Derek Anderson with the 2nd-most favorable passing schedule) but it doesn't significantly change how they're viewed.

Useful notes, based on this system-

-Mark Sanchez is not a buy-low- he plays 4 more games against top-10 pass defenses

-Consider trading for Thomas Jones- his owner might think he's selling high, but in fact the Jets play 5 defenses in the bottom 10 against the run

-While the Jets have an extreme pass and run-defense schedule rating disparity, the Chiefs have a +3 pass defense schedule (3 good, 4 neutral) and a +4 run defense (5 good, 2 neutral). In a favorable matchup, LJ put up useful numbers this Sunday- 83 rush, 12 recv

-LT (from nearly all reports) looked good and has a favorable schedule with 4 good matchups and the third most-favorable AFC run schedule with a +4

-Cedric Benson will be a yo-yo this season with 4 run-defenses in the top-10, while 4 others are in the bottom 3rd.

-Is Ray Rice matchup-immune? He faces 4 top-10 run defenses and has a -1 run-defense schedule rating.

-Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler both have underperforming running game complements and favorable pass defense schedule ratings, Rodgers with the best in the NFL (+7.5, 5 good, 5 neutral), Cutler 3rd-best in the NFC with 7 pass defenses in the bottom 3rd and only 2 in the top 10.

-Whatever you think of the NFC East, McNabb, Eli and Romo all play 5 top-10 pass defenses, or half the remaining fantasy football schedule.

-Matt Ryan plays the most difficult pass-defense schedule rating in the NFL with a -3.5 and 6 matchups against top-10 pass defenses.

-NO, Dallas, Atlanta, NYG and Philly all have difficult pass schedule ratings but favorable run schedule ratings. The Saints have the most-favorable run schedule rating with a +7 and 7 matchups against run defenses in the lower third of the league. Pierre Thomas and Michael Turner as buy-lowers?

Great post, Matt! Thanks for sharing.
Kareighuis
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe Musketeer
Posts: 3627
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 14 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining

Postby mattb47 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 10:00 am

Right now I'd probably put Ray Rice entering the "matchup-immune" category...he's such a big part of their passing game too that even if they have to pass a lot (like last week), I still feel confident playing him because he's virtually a lock for at least 100+ total yards a game right now.

This is what I'm looking at doing based on this a bit:

Buy
- Pierre Thomas
- Marion Barber/Felix Jones
- Michael Turner
- Aaron Rodgers
- Jay Cutler
- Carson Palmer
- Thomas Jones
- Ronnie Brown
- LT

Sell
- Rashard Mendenhall
- Steve Slaton
- Steven Jackson
- Ryan Grant
- Matt Forte
- Matt Ryan
- Tony Romo
- Donovan McNabb
- Eli Manning
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining

Postby mattb47 » Wed Oct 21, 2009 10:01 am

It's also worth noting that the only "bad" matchup the Saints have left this season against the run is this next week against Miami who has been good against the run this year...after that they have 7 games against teams ranked 21st or worse in run defense and 2 teams who are middle of the road. Pretty good time to buy after this week if they struggle at all to run it.
Image
mattb47
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 14238
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining

Postby SameSongNDance » Wed Oct 21, 2009 10:30 am

I want to address Benson "yo-yoing" this year. Remember, he ran for 100+ yards against PIT and BAL but seemed to struggle against CLE and HOU. It's perplexing.
SameSongNDance
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Ranker
Posts: 1574
Joined: 27 Aug 2009
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Best Pass/Run Schedules Remaining

Postby da bears » Wed Oct 21, 2009 7:08 pm

SameSongNDance wrote:I want to address Benson "yo-yoing" this year. Remember, he ran for 100+ yards against PIT and BAL but seemed to struggle against CLE and HOU. It's perplexing.


That is crazy just looked back at the box scores and it really isn't like they were way behind in any of the games when he did poorly. The game they were the furthest behind was the Pitt game unless I went through wrong. But more importantly great write up I think these types of threads are some of the most helpful to fantasy players for making a real run at a championship. It's like playing poker to me, there's lots of luck and all you can control is putting yourself in the best position to win.
da bears
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1144
(Past Year: 10)
Joined: 24 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: chicago

Next

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 23:38 hours
(and 36 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact