Waiver Wire Defense Formulas - Week 7

[comm1680]

comm1680 FF Defensive Rankings:

Code: Select all

Team                Opponent            Score
Philadelphia        Washington          -2991
Green Bay           Cleveland           -2898
Buffalo             Carolina            -2528
Indianapolis        St. Louis           -2354
Minnesota           Pittsburgh          -2157
Carolina            Buffalo             -2136
New Orleans         Miami               -2065
New York Jets       Oakland             -1888
Cleveland           Green Bay           -1710
New York Giants     Arizona             -1583
New England         Tampa Bay           -1535
Chicago             Cincinatti          -1460
Oakland             New York Jets       -1322
Cincinatti          Chicago             -1124
Washington          Philadelphia        -1031
Atlanta             Dallas              -1027
Houston             San Fran             -871
San Diego           Kansas City          -795
San Fran            Houston              -767
Pittsburgh          Minnesota            -680
Kansas City         San Diego            -563
Arizona             New York Giants       -59
Dallas              Atlanta               530
Miami               New Orleans           730
Tampa Bay           New England           871
St. Louis           Indianapolis          947

Comm rankings description - For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

Week 6 Comm rankings


prince_45243 FF Defensive Rankings:

Code: Select all

PASSING
1) DEN (7) 8.3
2) IND (9) 8.5
3) BUF (4) 9.5
4) NYJ (8) 9.8
5) NO (14) 10.3
6) WAS (3) 10.8
7) NYG (1) 12.2
8) CAR (2) 12.2
9) PHI (5) 12.4
10) NE (6) 12.9
11) OAK (16) 13.5
12) ATL (21) 13.6
13) CHI (14) 13.9
14) HOU (19) 14.1
15) SF (20) 14.2
16) GB (10) 14.5
17) SEA (17) 14.8
18) MIA (18) 15.0
19) CLE (23) 15.7
20) PIT (12) 15.7
21) BAL (22) 16.3
22) STL (27) 16.4
23) SD (13) 16.7
24) MIN (24) 16.9
25) CIN (28) 17.5
26) DAL (26) 18.9
27) TB (11) 18.9
28) KC (25) 19.0
29) ARI (31) 19.8
30) JAC (30) 20.8
31) DET (29) 26
32) TEN (32) 30

Code: Select all

RUSHING:
1) ARI (1) 6.8
2) PIT (2) 7.8
3) DEN (5) 8.3
4) NE (20) 9.9
5) JAC (12) 10.5
6) MIN (9) 10.7
7) GB (16) 11.7
8) BAL (8) 11.8
9) WAS (22) 11.8
10) DAL (17) 11.8
11) PHI (15) 12.0
12) CIN (11) 12.0
13) MIA (3) 12.4
14) SF (7) 12.5
15) NO (5) 13.1
16) TEN (10) 13.5
17) CHI (6) 13.6
18) ATL (23) 13.8
19) SEA (13) 13.9
20) DET (19) 14.2
21) IND (14) 14.3
22) NYJ (21) 15.2
23) KC (25) 17.7
24) NYG (18) 18.0
25) CAR (29) 19.3
26) SD (27) 19.7
27) OAK (28) 19.9
28) STL (26) 21.6
29) HOU (24) 21.8
30) TB (31) 22.2
31) CLE (30) 23.9
32) BUF (32) 25.5

Prince rankings description - This weekly matchup ranking ranks each defense according to passing and rushing based on fantasy points. NFL rankings are based solely on yards per game. If a defense give up fewer passing yards per game, they are considered a better passing defense. But in FF leagues, touchdowns and interceptions are weighted. Please remember that this accounts only for passing and rushing defense strength. Running backs that also receive a lot or qbs that run a lot may see different outcomes. The score given is the average number of points that opposing passers or rushers have against them. Also, if your RB's team splits carries a lot, then you have to think about how they are utilized and divide the points allowed by that.

For passing: 1 point for 25 yards, 6 points per TD, -2 per interception
For rushing: 1 point for 10 yards, 6 points per TD, -2 per fumble lost.

Each is listed as FF rank) Team (NFL Rank) Score
For example, Denver is the number 1 ranked fantasy defense. They are ranked number 7 based on the NFL but opposing qbs on AVERAGE are only having 8.3 points per game against them based. They have allowed only 3 passing TDs in 6 games and have offset that with 6 picks. The Colts, btw, have only given up 2 passing TDs this year.


Week 6 Prince rankings


Prince review:

Passing - I've been fooled by Oakland a few times now, expecting big days from passing and wide receivers. But their problem is that they really suck at rushing defense. Frankly, they're keeping opponents fairly well shut down through the air. Through 6 games, they've allowed only 6 TDs through the air. They do yield an average 220 yards per game but honestly, they're a bit of a surprise. Similar is Washington. They're arguably one of the biggest disappointments in winning games but it's not their defense.

Rushing - Again I have to point out the Redskins. Don't be fooled by the NFL ranking their rushing defense as 22nd based on yardage. The Redskins have allowed only 2 rushing TDs all year and have forced 6 fumbles. And what about NE ranked 20th by the NFL? Yes, they've given up 112 yards per game…but they've yielded ONE rushing TD in six games all year and lead the league with 7 forced fumbles. Let's compare to the Bears who are ranked 6th by the NFL against the rush. They only yield 88 yards (about 3 points difference in yards to the Redskins) but they have yielded 5rushing TDs this year in 5 games and have only 3 forced fumbles. Start anyone with a pulse against Buffalo and Cleveland on the ground as they have yielded 8 and 9 rushing TDs and the bills are allowing an obscene 181 yards per game on average while the browns are giving up 165 yards per game on average. That's over 20 points per game to the opposing rushers.

You may be asking what the deal is with Arizona. Through 5 games, they are yielding only 59 yards per game on the ground and have given up only 2 rushing TDs. It's how awful they are at passing. 265 yards per game through the air and a whopping 9 TDs with only 4 picks.

*I usually grade teams as top 10, bottom 10 and everything else in the middle. Please don't make much of a few points here and there as they aren't that predictive. But hopefully this will give you a better 'Fantasy Defense' idea than the NFL ranking does.


Comm review:

Last week with the formula, besides some surprises: Minn (2), Jax (4) and a donut by the Giants, no one in the top 15 was below 6 points. Denver was a great play, especially if you count return TDs. My #1 sleeper Tampa Bay did fantastic with 14 pts. Jacksonville and Seattle didn't do anything special, but weren't disasters either. And Washington had the low-scoring game we all knew they would. A pretty good week overall.

With 6 weeks behind us, these ranking should start to get pretty good.

Philly, Green Bay, Indy, Minn, Saints, Jets, and Pats are all must starts. Beyond those, Buffalo continued to do well last week as an underrated group and should continue that trend against the awful Panthers. I'm a little more wary of using Carolina here. With Edwards out, Fitz went spread the ball a bit more. But that should mean some interceptions as well, so they're not a bad desperation play. Cleveland is also a good play against the mish-mosh offensive line in Green Bay. They've looked pretty good the last few weeks as well.

So for sleepers, my ranks are: Buffalo, Cleveland, Carolina

MOD EDIT to include both rankings - thanks for the great work

[karma]

Appreciate the work, what do you think about the Raiders for a sleeper? Against the Jets, you know the East Coast to West coast, Sanchez struggling. The Broncos have a bye, so looking for something.

[RugbyD]

Buffalo seems like an odd pick given their inability to stop the run. Am I alone in this thought?

[eaglesfan]

I have no choice really....I have to go Buffalo.

[ocbc]

I would have thought SD against KC would be allot higher. I don't think I could touch Clevaland with a 10' pole against GB. I also like Carolina against Buf.

[ImTheWhiz]

Its pretty slim pickens for me on the WW this week; I dropped the G Men after their horrendous showing in New Orleans. Who do you guys think between Carolina, Buffalo, & San Diego?

[Motown Blues]

...I dropped the G Men after their horrendous showing in New Orleans.

Wow. You dropped them after ONE bad week against the best offense in the NFL? Ouch. Methinks you will live to regret that. Pick up SD in the meantime and hope no one picks up the Giants, they clear waivers and you can snatch the squad back up.

[sbouffard]

I have the Jets, but could pick up Indy off of waivers. What do people think??

[justinj312]

I'm gonna continue to roll with NE...

[Bantam]

I have the Jets, but could pick up Indy off of waivers. What do people think??

I faced the same choice. In fantasy points, they're not that far apart. I decided to roll with the Colts.

My logic: While you probably can't go wrong either way, the Colts (who are already ranked slightly higher) are coming off a bye healthy, including Bob Sanders. The Jets just lost Kris Jenkins, which opens up an existing weakness to the run, which is the one thing the Raiders actually do decently well. These rankings, as stated above, do not account for these personnel issues.

On top of that, the Colts play the 49ers next week, while the Jets play the Dolphins (horrible matchup), and then go on bye. You can still use the Colts next week.

And, for gravy, just remember that a good offense can make a defense even better. Unlike the Raiders' D, who can feasibly do to Sanchez what they did to McNabb, the Rams have no hope of containing Manning. Indy will be up at least three TDs by halftime, forcing St. Louis to becom one-dimensional and take additional chances. That's a recipe for turnovers and sacks.

Just my take. Hope it helps.