Fantasy Football Cafe Forum

by **comm1680** » Tue Oct 27, 2009 12:14 pm

Last week with the formula all your obvious starts did well, with the top 10 rankings averaging just under 15 pts each. My #1 sleeper in Buffalo did well with 14 pts. My #2 was not so good with a dud from Cleveland. But at least Carolina was respectable with 5 pts. Arizona also emerged as a possible future sleeper which I'll discuss more below.

For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

Code: Select all: Team Opponent Score Arizona Carolina -2939 San Diego Oakland -2195 Chicago Cleveland -2162 Minnesota Green Bay -2150 Indianapolis San Fran -1968 Philadelphia New York Giants -1693 Denver Baltimore -1562 Detroit St. Louis -1519 Houston Buffalo -1488 St. Louis Detroit -1344 New Orleans Atlanta -1249 Green Bay Minnesota -1216 Dallas Seattle -1214 Miami New York Jets -1147 New York Giants Philadelphia -1137 New York Jets Miami -1088 Carolina Arizona -1061 Buffalo Houston -892 Seattle Dallas -714 Jacksonville Tennessee -636 Cleveland Chicago -634 Tennessee Jacksonville -396 Oakland San Diego -371 Baltimore Denver -232 Atlanta New Orleans -138 San Fran Indianapolis 525

Obvious starts include: Chicago and Indy. You'd probably play Minn and Philly no matter what, but keep in mind that rivalry games like those are difficult to predict. Other than that, I don't really see anyone who is a lock to start. So, let's get to the sleepers:

1. Arizona comes in as a no doubt #1 this week and the formula likes them through week 10 (that's as far as I've forecast) and I'd say I like them weeks 11 and 12 vs St. Louis and Tenn. If they're out there and you don't have an elite Def. get them now.

2. A lot of people will ask about San Diego, so I'll quickly mention that they are a risky play here. I think they'll win, but Oakland typically find a way to play them tough. It's not as sure a thing as you think. I'd stay away.

3. Not so much a sleeper at 77% ownership in Yahoo leagues, but if Denver is available grab them for the next few weeks. Just like Arizona, they don't leave the top 7 through week 10 in my rankings.

4. For a super-sleeper, I'm picking Detroit coming off the bye, at home, against St Louis. Some may say Miami, after the last matchup vs the Jets, but I see this game turning out much different (kinda how those rivalry games seem to go).