Waiver Wire Defense Formulas - Week 8

[dream_017]

Rankings provided by comm1680:

Code: Select all

Team              Opponent           Score
Arizona           Carolina           -2939
San Diego         Oakland            -2195
Chicago           Cleveland          -2162
Minnesota         Green Bay          -2150
Indianapolis      San Fran           -1968
Philadelphia      New York Giants    -1693
Denver            Baltimore          -1562
Detroit           St. Louis          -1519
Houston           Buffalo            -1488
St. Louis         Detroit            -1344
New Orleans       Atlanta            -1249
Green Bay         Minnesota          -1216
Dallas            Seattle            -1214
Miami             New York Jets      -1147
New York Giants   Philadelphia       -1137
New York Jets     Miami              -1088
Carolina          Arizona            -1061
Buffalo           Houston             -892
Seattle           Dallas              -714
Jacksonville      Tennessee           -636
Cleveland         Chicago             -634
Tennessee         Jacksonville        -396
Oakland           San Diego           -371
Baltimore         Denver              -232
Atlanta           New Orleans         -138
San Fran          Indianapolis         525


Comm rankings description - For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

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comm1680 recap and preview:
Last week with the formula all your obvious starts did well, with the top 10 rankings averaging just under 15 pts each. My #1 sleeper in Buffalo did well with 14 pts. My #2 was not so good with a dud from Cleveland. But at least Carolina was respectable with 5 pts. Arizona also emerged as a possible future sleeper which I'll discuss more below.

Obvious starts include: Chicago and Indy. You'd probably play Minn and Philly no matter what, but keep in mind that rivalry games like those are difficult to predict. Other than that, I don't really see anyone who is a lock to start. So, let's get to the sleepers:

1. Arizona comes in as a no doubt #1 this week and the formula likes them through week 10 (that's as far as I've forecast) and I'd say I like them weeks 11 and 12 vs St. Louis and Tenn. If they're out there and you don't have an elite Def. get them now.

2. A lot of people will ask about San Diego, so I'll quickly mention that they are a risky play here. I think they'll win, but Oakland typically find a way to play them tough. It's not as sure a thing as you think. I'd stay away.

3. Not so much a sleeper at 77% ownership in Yahoo leagues, but if Denver is available grab them for the next few weeks. Just like Arizona, they don't leave the top 7 through week 10 in my rankings.

4. For a super-sleeper, I'm picking Detroit coming off the bye, at home, against St Louis. Some may say Miami, after the last matchup vs the Jets, but I see this game turning out much different (kinda how those rivalry games seem to go).

Week 7 rankings


Post any questions or comments you have, comm will be checking into this thread to answer your questions.

[WaCougMBS]

Looks good (and has the right week) - thanks again for doing this every week man

[silverZ]

This makes me happy for picking up ARI last week. Good job as usual.

[hutchwashere]

Great thread - been helping me substantially every week!

If you have Indy and Baltimore - and Arizona is available on the wire - would you drop Baltimore for Arizona and run Arizona in week 8?

Thanks!!!

[eaglesfan]

Grabbed Arizona Thanks again

[Amazing Oopah]

assuming a competitive league which has been fleeced of viable D's and all you had left were Houston, St. Louis and Detroit, which one of these three would you take?

[kickureface]

whats the better pair for GB the rest of the season (and this week)--CHI or ARI?

[ssgfunk]

Great thread - been helping me substantially every week!

If you have Indy and Baltimore - and Arizona is available on the wire - would you drop Baltimore for Arizona and run Arizona in week 8?

Thanks!!!

great question, I would like to know the answer as well

[wet_fantasy]

Which is the safer play? ......DEN d @ BAL? or DET d vs. STL?

[sirchadwick1]

whats the better pair for GB the rest of the season (and this week)--CHI or ARI?

I'm in the same boat. Not sure if I should just ride out GB or keep up w/ the matchups.

I have IND, CHI, and DEN out there and I'd rather play all of them over GB this week.

What should I do?