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Waiver Wire Defense Formulas - Week 8
Posted: Tue Oct 27, 2009 1:42 pmRankings provided by comm1680:
Comm rankings description - For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.
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comm1680 recap and preview:
Last week with the formula all your obvious starts did well, with the top 10 rankings averaging just under 15 pts each. My #1 sleeper in Buffalo did well with 14 pts. My #2 was not so good with a dud from Cleveland. But at least Carolina was respectable with 5 pts. Arizona also emerged as a possible future sleeper which I'll discuss more below.
Obvious starts include: Chicago and Indy. You'd probably play Minn and Philly no matter what, but keep in mind that rivalry games like those are difficult to predict. Other than that, I don't really see anyone who is a lock to start. So, let's get to the sleepers:
1. Arizona comes in as a no doubt #1 this week and the formula likes them through week 10 (that's as far as I've forecast) and I'd say I like them weeks 11 and 12 vs St. Louis and Tenn. If they're out there and you don't have an elite Def. get them now.
2. A lot of people will ask about San Diego, so I'll quickly mention that they are a risky play here. I think they'll win, but Oakland typically find a way to play them tough. It's not as sure a thing as you think. I'd stay away.
3. Not so much a sleeper at 77% ownership in Yahoo leagues, but if Denver is available grab them for the next few weeks. Just like Arizona, they don't leave the top 7 through week 10 in my rankings.
4. For a super-sleeper, I'm picking Detroit coming off the bye, at home, against St Louis. Some may say Miami, after the last matchup vs the Jets, but I see this game turning out much different (kinda how those rivalry games seem to go).
Week 7 rankings
Post any questions or comments you have, comm will be checking into this thread to answer your questions.
- Code: Select all
Team Opponent Score
Arizona Carolina -2939
San Diego Oakland -2195
Chicago Cleveland -2162
Minnesota Green Bay -2150
Indianapolis San Fran -1968
Philadelphia New York Giants -1693
Denver Baltimore -1562
Detroit St. Louis -1519
Houston Buffalo -1488
St. Louis Detroit -1344
New Orleans Atlanta -1249
Green Bay Minnesota -1216
Dallas Seattle -1214
Miami New York Jets -1147
New York Giants Philadelphia -1137
New York Jets Miami -1088
Carolina Arizona -1061
Buffalo Houston -892
Seattle Dallas -714
Jacksonville Tennessee -636
Cleveland Chicago -634
Tennessee Jacksonville -396
Oakland San Diego -371
Baltimore Denver -232
Atlanta New Orleans -138
San Fran Indianapolis 525
Comm rankings description - For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.
==================================================
==================================================
comm1680 recap and preview:
Last week with the formula all your obvious starts did well, with the top 10 rankings averaging just under 15 pts each. My #1 sleeper in Buffalo did well with 14 pts. My #2 was not so good with a dud from Cleveland. But at least Carolina was respectable with 5 pts. Arizona also emerged as a possible future sleeper which I'll discuss more below.
Obvious starts include: Chicago and Indy. You'd probably play Minn and Philly no matter what, but keep in mind that rivalry games like those are difficult to predict. Other than that, I don't really see anyone who is a lock to start. So, let's get to the sleepers:
1. Arizona comes in as a no doubt #1 this week and the formula likes them through week 10 (that's as far as I've forecast) and I'd say I like them weeks 11 and 12 vs St. Louis and Tenn. If they're out there and you don't have an elite Def. get them now.
2. A lot of people will ask about San Diego, so I'll quickly mention that they are a risky play here. I think they'll win, but Oakland typically find a way to play them tough. It's not as sure a thing as you think. I'd stay away.
3. Not so much a sleeper at 77% ownership in Yahoo leagues, but if Denver is available grab them for the next few weeks. Just like Arizona, they don't leave the top 7 through week 10 in my rankings.
4. For a super-sleeper, I'm picking Detroit coming off the bye, at home, against St Louis. Some may say Miami, after the last matchup vs the Jets, but I see this game turning out much different (kinda how those rivalry games seem to go).
Week 7 rankings
Post any questions or comments you have, comm will be checking into this thread to answer your questions.
