Fantasy Football Cafe Forum

by **dream_017** » Tue Nov 03, 2009 4:48 pm

Rankings provided by comm1680:

Code: Select all: Team Opponent Score New Orleans Carolina -2738 Atlanta Washington -2425 Denver Pittsburgh -2317 Seattle Detroit -2111 Green Bay Tampa Bay -1878 Philadelphia Dallas -1815 New England Miami -1813 Chicago Arizona -1564 Arizona Chicago -1421 Indianapolis Houston -1394 San Fran Tennessee -1044 Tennessee San Fran -973 New York Giants San Diego -963 Jacksonville Kansas City -926 Detroit Seattle -894 Pittsburgh Denver -890 Tampa Bay Green Bay -807 Dallas Philadelphia -744 Washington Atlanta -725 Baltimore Cincinatti -694 Kansas City Jacksonville -477 Cincinatti Baltimore -447 Carolina New Orleans -426 San Diego New York Giants -410 Miami New England 238 Houston Indianapolis 670

Comm rankings description - For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

Rankings provided by prince_45243:

Code: Select all: PASSING 1) IND (7) 7.8 (29) 2) NYJ (4) 8.6 (23) 3) BUF (11) 8.7 (24) 4) DEN (8) 8.9 (16) 5) NO (17) 9.5 (27) 6) WAS (2) 10.9 (30) 7) CAR (1) 11.9 (17) 8) NE (5) 11.9 (26) 9) SD (6) 12.6 (31) 10) PHI (10) 13.2 (28) 11) OAK (13) 13.2 (5) 12) HOU (14) 13.8 (32) 13) NYG (3) 14.1 (19) 14) BAL (19) 14.8 (9) 15) PIT (16) 14.9 (25) 16) GB (9) 15.4 (22) 17) CHI (12) 15.4 (18) 18) MIA (21) 15.4 (10) 19) CLE (24) 16.0 (3) 20) SF (28) 16.0 (1) 21) STL (24) 16.3 (8) 22) CIN (30) 16.4 (6) 23) SEA (18) 16.7 (12) 24) ARI (20) 16.7 (7) 25) ATL(31) 17.1 (13) 26) MIN (23) 17.8 (20) 27) DAL (22) 18.6 (21) 28) JAC (26) 19.4 (15) 29) TB (15) 20.0 (14) 30) KC (28) 20.4 (11) 31) DET (27) 24.1 (2) 32) TEN (32) 25.9 (4)

Code: Select all: RUSHING 1) PIT (1) 8.8 (20) 2) DEN (3) 9.5 (13) 3) NE (15) 9.8 (7) 4) MIN (7) 10.0 (25) 5) CIN (5) 10.2 (27) 6) GB (9) 11.4 (22) 7) SF (2) 11.6 (32) 8) BAL (4) 11.9 (28) 9) DAL (13) 11.9 (24) 10) PHI (12) 12.0 (17) 11) ARI (8) 12.5 (11) 12) WAS (22) 12.7 (23) 13) NYJ (14)13.6 (3) 14) SEA(10) 14.1 (19) 15) ATL (23) 14.5 (1) 16) IND (17) 14.9 (10) 17) JAC (25) 15.1 (31) 18) DET (21) 15.2 (15) 19) MIA (6) 15.5 (2) 20) CHI (16) 15.6 (30) 21) TEN (18) 16.4 (6) 22) KC (26) 17.1 (12) 23) CAR (24) 17.6 (29) 24) NO (11) 17.9 (4) 25) SD (27) 18.1 (16) 26) NYG (9) 19.1 (26) 27) HOU (20) 19.1 (9) 28) TB (30) 21.4 (8) 29) STL (28) 22.0 (21) 30) OAK (29) 24.4 (18) 31) CLE (31) 24.8 (14) 32) BUF (32) 25.9 (5)

Prince rankings description - This weekly matchup ranking ranks each defense according to passing and rushing based on fantasy points. NFL rankings are based solely on yards per game. If a defense give up fewer passing yards per game, they are considered a better passing defense. But in FF leagues, touchdowns and interceptions are weighted. Please remember that this accounts only for passing and rushing defense strength. Running backs that also receive a lot or qbs that run a lot may see different outcomes. The score given is the average number of points that opposing passers or rushers have against them. Also, if your RB's team splits carries a lot, then you have to think about how they are utilized and divide the points allowed by that.

For passing: 1 point for 25 yards, 6 points per TD, -2 per interception
For rushing: 1 point for 10 yards, 6 points per TD, -2 per fumble lost.

Toughness of schedule is determined by fantasy passing or rushing output of the teams they have faced off with this season. The same points are alloted above and then each team is ranked based on the average number of points the offenses they are seeing have put out. The higher the number the easier the schedule has been.

Each is listed as FF rank) Team (NFL Rank) Score (Toughness)
For example, Colts are the number 1 ranked passing fantasy defense. They are ranked number 7 based on the NFL but opposing qbs on AVERAGE are only having 7.9 points per game against them. They have allowed only 3 passing TDs in 7 games and have offset that with 7 picks. However, they've had the 3rd easiest schedule this season from their opponent's passing perspective. Indy has thus far faced Jac, Mia, Ari, Sea, Ten, Bye, Stl and SF. Other than Kurt Warner (who only scored 1 TD that game), that is a very light passing offense schedule and one could argue that they have not yet been fully tested.

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comm1680 recap and preview:
I'm kinda speachless regarding lastweek. Everyone I recommended did awful and those to stay away from did well. This is why I don't do the year to end rankings for a while longer.

Not a whole lot to choose from on waiver I suppose. Atlanta looks to have the best matchup of the lesser-owned defenses. I think they're my #1 recommendation for this week, plus they play Carolina next week which could be a good matchup if last week was a fluke. After that, if you picked up Arizona, I would consider giving them one more shot. They should bounce back nicely. If you're desperate, I think Jax could have a good game at home vs KC.

prince_45243 recap and preview:
Passing - The Top 10 is littered with the easiest passing schedule opponents as I made the point with Indy above. Only Denver and Carolina have faced highoutput fantasy passing opponents. Den has had Palmer, Romo, Brady, Rivers and Flacco but have also had Cle and Oak. Still, they seem like a legitimate top 10 passing defense and probably should be ranked higher. Carolina is ranked number 1 in the NFL, 7th on my ranking and has faced McNabb, Ryan, Romo and Warner. They also had some easier times with Was, TB and BUF but also seem like a legitimate top 10. But some other top 10 have not been as thoroughly tested. My biggest caution is on NYG who is ranked 3rd by the NFL in passing defense. Houston has had the easiest season from a passing defense perspective. They have faced NYJ, TEN, JAC, OAK, ARI, CIN AND SF. Arguably Ari and Cin are teh really only big test there and so I think that we have them over ranked at 12th.

Rushing - Here again, we see that the top 10 is littered with some of the easiest rushing defense schedules of the year. But check out NE. yes they're ranked 15th by teh NFl but I have them ranked at 3rd. They have given up only 1 rushing TD this year and have faced this year BUF, NYJ, ATL, BAL, DEN, TEN and TB. Some good rushing teams in that mix and this week, they'll face off against one of the toughest rushing offenses in the league in Miami. If they hold them to a modest week, I'm willing to bet that they hold a lot of rushing offenses down. Miami itself is ranekd 6th by the NFL and I have them all the way down at 19th as they'v given up 8 rushing TDs this year and have only 2 fumble recoveries in 7 games. But, they have also had the second toughest rushing opponents schedule this year facing ATL, IND, SD, BUF, NYJ, NO AND NYJ. TB may be a little unfairly put into the bottom 10 here. They've faced a number of high producing teams with DAL, BUF, NYG, WAS, PHI, CAR, NE. Buf was during Fred Jacksons' high producing weeks.

Another surprise is the NYG. They are ranked 9th in the league by the NFL based on their allowing only 113 yards per game. But they have allowed a whopping 12 rushing TDs in 8 games. Only the Oakland raiders at 13 have allowed more rushing TDs this season. And they haven't exactly been facing powerhouse rushing offenses. They've been up against TB, KC, OAK and ARI in their lineup as well as WAS, DAL, NO and PHI as possibly stronger rushing teams. I think that that SD runners might do better than expected against this 'top 10' rushing defense. Good luck and let me know if you have questions.

Week 8 rankings

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Post any questions or comments you have, both comm and prince will be checking into this thread to answer your questions.

by **Drew_70** » Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:53 pm

Denver and Pittsburgh should be reversed! Steelers coming off a bye and Orton's Broncos got figured out...finally!

by **WaCougMBS** » Tue Nov 03, 2009 9:56 pm

I keep posting this in the wrong thread...

What do you think about Atlanta and Denver this week? I own Denver, but have a soon-to-be free spot I can use on a WW D/ST like Atlanta to play the matchup. I don't know if I buy Denver on the road over Atlanta, but both seem like they could be above average starts - thoughts? :-?

As always, thanks again for doing this ;-D

by **prince_45243** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:35 am

NEXT THREE WEEKS

Using the data for generating FF defense, I created a next three weeks list for how easy various teams have it from a passing or rushing perspective. Often times, FF leagues are decided not by the studs on your team, but by the pickups from the WW.

By taking the schedule that each team will face in weeks 9, 10 and 11, finding the average number of points they yield to passers and rushers respectively using my post above, I add them up and then rank them by which team will face defenses that allow the most points.

PASSING
1) SEA
2) SF
3) GB
4) DET
5) ARI
6) NO
7) KC
8) PHI
9) CHI
10) PIT
11) BUF
12) WAS
13) MIA
14) CIN
15) CAR
16) MIN
17) IND
18) TB
19) BAL
20) DAL
21) CLE
22) TEN
23) DEN
24) JAC
25) ATL
26) OAK
27) SD
28) HOU
29) NE
30) NYJ
31) NYG
32) STL

Obviously the list doesn't include the talent of the passer/receiver into account. But Seattle QB Hasselbeck and perhaps even TJ is a sneaky pickup right now as they are going to face DAL, DET and ARI in the next three weeks all of which are bottom 10 passing defenses. SF will face TEN, CHI AND GB. TEN is rock bottom in passing defense, CHI is ranked 17th on my list and then GB comes in at 16th. It's mostly TEN that makes this look so good so be warned. Did you like Aaron Rodgers vs. Minnesota? Because he's going to face TB, DAL and SF ranked 29th, 27th and 20th. That looks better to me than SF. That's two bottom 10 passing defenses in the next two weeks. GB receivers may be highly playable during this period.

Did you pick up Steve Smith (NYG) earlier this year on his hot streak? Think Mario Manningham is going to save your season or Kevin Boss will repeat last week's double digit numbers? Meh...Well they are facing SD ranked 9th on my list, 6th by NFL, then have a bye and then they get ATL a bit farther down the road. So you're looking at a two week wait before they'll have an easier time. Been hesitating on picking up Breaston from Arizona? Bad week last week vs. Carolina and the week before vs. NYG was no fun. Well, they do now have CHI, SEA and STL ranked 17th, 23rd and 21st vs. the Pass coming up. With Anquan hurting and no running game, may wanna pick up that bad boy. Of course Brady is a must start every week but he does have some fairly stiff weeks coming up. MIA, IND AND NYJ are 18th, 1, and 2. Then again, those two defenses haven't seen Brady yet.

RUSHING
1) NO
2) TEN
3) JAC
4) ARI
5) BAL
6) ATL
7) DET
8) MIA
9) KC
10) CAR
11) PHI
12) CIN
13) GB
14) TB
15) NE
16) SF
17) IND
18) SD
19) DEN
20) SEA
21) PIT
22) CHI
23) DAL
24) WAS
25) NYG
26) BUF
27) HOU
28) STL
29) MIN
30) OAK
31) CLE
32) NYJ

Well I hope no idiot has given up on Chris Johnson and in particular after last week's performance from TEN. And things get a lot easier vs. BUF, HOU and ARI ranked 32, 27th and 11th. Next two weeks should see a resurgence of that once proud rushing offense. The other thing about TEN last year is that they faced a very easy rushing defense schedule. This year, they started with PIT, faced NYJ, IND, JACX2 and NE. The only bottom 10 rushing defense they faced was HOU. They still have the talent, IMO, they just had a markedly tougher schedule this yaer.

Were you lucky enough to draft Ray Rice this year? Nice eh? Next up, CIN, CLE and IND. CIN is actually ranked number 5 but CLE is 31st and IND is 16th. Ray should do fine against all three IMO. Wildcat (Miami offense) fans should be lovin' it this year. Not only is MIA the number 2 rushing offense this year but they are going up against NE, TB and CAR in the next three weeks. NE is ranked 3rd on my list because of the lack of rushing TDs allowed but 15th by the NFL on yardage and TB is a pathetic 28th and CAR is 23rd against the run. Both bottom 10 defenses!

OAK has one decent matchup in KC in the next three weeks but has a bye and 5th ranked CIN. STL has DET, BYE and NO. DET is astonishingly not a bottom 10 rushing defense coming in at a midling 18th on the list. NO is ranked 24th by me, 11th by the NFL. Not exactly stellar production expected for SJax. Slaton's Fumbleitis has many a fan eyeing Ryan Moats after his 3TD day. He faces BUF< IND and has a BYE. BUF Is a 32nd ranked rushing defense. His next three weeks look bad because IND is 16th and he has a bye but he may well be worth picking up for next weeks game vs. BUF. I can't make it go away but please don't think Cedric Benson is going to run all over BAL and PIT in the next few games. It's oaklands really abd 30th ranked defense that puts Cincy at number 12 on that list.

Detroit has the 7th easiest rushing schedule coming up vs. SEA, MIN and CLE....but that's because CLE is so bad they are ranked 31st in the league vs. the rush. SEA is 14th and MIN is 4th.

The 'Next Three weeks' ranking is intended to help on ww pickups between two different players to see which is having a forseeably easier few weeks if you have nothing else to help you decide or to help in your decision.

Let me know if anyone has any questions.

by **tuckyou** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 10:26 am

What is a better pickup for the coming weeks, and a better start for this week, Seattle or Atlanta? Please, reply soon so I can strike while the iron's hot.

by **sirchadwick1** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 9:10 am

tuckyou wrote:What is a better pickup for the coming weeks, and a better start for this week, Seattle or Atlanta? Please, reply soon so I can strike while the iron's hot.

I'd go w/ Seattle this week over ATL... but be prepared to drop them for someone else in week 10. I don't like SEA or ATL's matchups coming up. CAR is starting to turn it up a notch.

by **jermhorse** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 2:27 pm

Awesome thread Dream, thx for the time and effort. ;-D

I'm wondering who I should start on Deff this week while also looking down the road a few weeks.

I already own:
Phil.
Pitt

Available to pick up at the moment:
ATL,
SEA
IND
ARZ
DAL

So with the idea of wanting to have the best 4 week schedual I can, should I stay with who I have or trade for another team with favorable match-ups. I drafted Pitt and Have been disapointed almost all year but I refuse to drop them because I keep saying that they are due and Pineapple is back .....
Does this sound like an a unproductive plan of attack or a fair option?

I really like the looks of SEA, ATL, INY, but I'M not sure of how much more value they have compared to my PHIL AND PITT based on weekly matcg-ups. Please help this rookie out, and give me a fighting chance to stay in contention. ;-)

Thank you and leave a link if you want I would love to return the favor. WHIR

by **jermhorse** » Thu Nov 05, 2009 5:04 pm

by **waterproof** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:10 pm

I would play for the week. In your case, if you think that 1 of those WW defense are a better option this week. Grab 1 and start them. I don't have predictions for the next couple of weeks, but look at the schedules and see who to drop.

by **Drew_70** » Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:24 pm

WaCougMBS wrote:I keep posting this in the wrong thread...

What do you think about Atlanta and Denver this week? I own Denver, but have a soon-to-be free spot I can use on a WW D/ST like Atlanta to play the matchup. I don't know if I buy Denver on the road over Atlanta, but both seem like they could be above average starts - thoughts?

As always, thanks again for doing this

Yes...you did post in wrong thread (how u got all those medals is beyond me)...Don't you read above posts and analyze what the main post is saying?!?!.....Geez.. :-t