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Mel Kiper's Big Board

Mel Kiper's Big Board

Postby Kareighuis » Fri Nov 06, 2009 8:59 am

In preparation for the 2010 draft, I just saw Kiper's Big Board (jeez, I don't know why, but that sounds bad)-

1- DT Ndamukong Suh
2- DB Eric Berry
3- DE Gerald McCoy
4- DE Carlos Dunlap
5- QB Sam Bradford
6- OT Russell Okung
7- DB Taylor Mays
8- QB Jake Locker
9- QB Jimmy Clausen
10- WR Dez Bryant

He says the college WRs aren't "being spectacular." Something about Golden Tate not returning to Notre Dame if Clausen declares for the draft. He says Tate has been compared to a less-explosive version of Harvin.
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Re: Mel Kiper's Big Board

Postby DraftDodger » Fri Nov 06, 2009 11:54 am

I don't follow college football. If I did, I'd have to stop watching the NFL because it's too depressing to see the players with heart that don't make it into the pros. We end up with too many big, fast guys who just want to collect a paycheck and can't be bothered to work on fundamentals like good tackling. But I digress ...

Kiper's predictions are based (I assume) on the premise that teams will draft for need. However, it ignores the guys like Al Davis that just do whatever the hell they feel like doing on draft day, and it ignores the hype that surrounds the draft. For example, I don't see a single RB listed in his top 10, but coaches and personnel guys put a lot of stock in running backs. It's one of the positions too where a team is probably least likely to be disappointed with its pick. It's hard to believe that a RB won't go in the top ten ...

They should save these articles for the off season, when there's not much to talk about :)
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Re: Mel Kiper's Big Board

Postby Metroid » Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:25 pm

Link?

Jake Locker will...or at least should, be the first QB taken in the draft.
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Re: Mel Kiper's Big Board

Postby Dan Lambskin » Fri Nov 06, 2009 12:52 pm

DraftDodger wrote:I don't follow college football. If I did, I'd have to stop watching the NFL because it's too depressing to see the players with heart that don't make it into the pros. We end up with too many big, fast guys who just want to collect a paycheck and can't be bothered to work on fundamentals like good tackling. But I digress ...

Kiper's predictions are based (I assume) on the premise that teams will draft for need. However, it ignores the guys like Al Davis that just do whatever the hell they feel like doing on draft day, and it ignores the hype that surrounds the draft. For example, I don't see a single RB listed in his top 10, but coaches and personnel guys put a lot of stock in running backs. It's one of the positions too where a team is probably least likely to be disappointed with its pick. It's hard to believe that a RB won't go in the top ten ...

They should save these articles for the off season, when there's not much to talk about :)


pretty sure Kiper's ranks are just based on talent...so this isnt a mock, just who he thinks the best players are
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Re: Mel Kiper's Big Board

Postby biju » Fri Nov 06, 2009 9:36 pm

Yeah, I'm pretty sure these are talent based rankings only, not on a "for need" basis.

Speaking on topic, I was perusing some really early NFL mock drafts for 2010 which take into consideration current record, and couldn't help but notice how only a couple of them actually look at the teams based on "real" need. Just like last year, many see that the Seahawks have trouble passing the ball so they automatically assume we have an immediate need at QB. They fail to realize that with Walter Jones' career likely done the biggest need we have is O-line.

Heck, I saw one mock give us two LBs in the first two rounds. Let me tell you that LB is not going to be a drafted position for us.

Anyway, Kiper has always been really hit or miss. I think he's really good at knowing the players and their histories, but as a talent scout he generally sucks. Let's not forget his famous quote after the Lions selected Mike Williams...

:-b
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Re: Mel Kiper's Big Board

Postby bazzy_51 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:27 am

Metroid wrote:Link?

Jake Locker will...or at least should, be the first QB taken in the draft.


+1 here. Jake doesn't get a fair shake because he plays on the lowly Huskies, but he has more A. pure QB talent, IMO, then any other college QB B. has more physical attributes then the any other and C. has one of the biggest drives to make the best of an iffy/crappy situation no matter up or down 20.

He had his freak wrist injury last year that really limited to how much light should be shed upon him at this point and time. But to date he is leading a stingy Pac-10 conference in total offense with 271 total yards a game and is 2nd with 12 passing TDs. He has a cannon for an arm, and big frame and is one of the most serious threats to run from the QB position in the nation. Tebow may be a #1 in some eyes, but in mine he is not going to excel as a fulltime primetime QB in the NFL because of the way he runs the Florida offense. Locker has the total package, he knows when to run, but knows how to stretch the field with his arm also. On the flip side Bradford (if healthy) is a very one dimensional QB who can run if he HAS to, but relies solely on his strong arm, the same wing that has been dinged now twice fairly severely. Clausen really is the only QB that I can see taking over the QB1 off the board from Locker (talks of Jevin Snead from Ole Miss should be thrown out as I don't see Snead on the same mental level as any of the previous 4 QBs named). But how will Jimmy fair in an offense that isn't 100% pass first? How will his size/athletic ability transfer to the pros compared to Lockers?

Point blank none of these other QBs have the pure all around athletic ability that Jake does (4.4-40 out of a 6'3" 226 pounder), added to the fact look at what Locker has to work with in Seattle as compared to these other QBs (Clausen-Golden Tate/Michael Floyd and stand out TE Kyle Rudolph, Bradford-Adron Tennell/Brandon Caleb/DeMarco Murray TE Jermaine Gresham(IR), Tebow-Riley Cooper/Deonte Thompson TE Aaron Hernandez). Just to compare Locker's top receiver in terms of receptions is James Johnson at 35 rec, Jermaine Kearse at 27, Devon Augilar at 25, Kavario Middleton at 20 and finally his RB Chris Polk at 15. Tebow has 3 receivers total in double digit recs, Aaron Hernandez at 36, Riley Cooper at 31 and David Nelson at 11; Clausen's distribution is horrid, Golden Tate 56 rec, Kyle Rudolph at 31 and not another receiver with more then 20 rec. To me what that shows is Locker A. doesn't have a solid top 'go to' guy and B. has tremendous field vision.

To be honest coming into this year I was a HUGE, HUGE Pac-10 hater. Always thought their conference was a couple top teams and a ton of pushovers. But (and yes laugh it up) I met my now G/F in NC and moved back to her hometown of Seattle, WA with her and really get to watch and analyze many, MANY Pac-10 games this year and quite frankly it has really opened my eyes. This conference is as strong as they go up and down the ranks. I'm a HUGE Big Ten lover and a Sparty fanatic, but I have to say with the crap UW throws out there on the field week in week out for Locker to throw to (outside of Augilar who is their 'top WR' who is dropping a ton of balls this year and Kearse has become the new #1 talent in the WR core) is horrid.

Again I emphasize the fact that I'm not just some Jake Locker/UW (University of Washington) homer, heck I actually hate Steve Sarkisian as a head coach but thats a whole other issue, I truly am a Big Ten homer. What I have seen out of Jake Locker compared to many other QBs (have for some reason gotten a TON of Mich St games, ND and Florida games, weird being on the west coast) is not a match. He is the most physically gifted QB in terms of speed, arm strength, accuracy and brute strength overall and one of the best field managers I have seen this year. Again if Locker wouldn't have injured his wrist last year (not as big of an issue as Brandford as it was his none throwing hand) and had a full year of action last year ontop of what he is producing this year there would be no WAY anyone could take away a unanimous #1 QB and potential #1 overall in the draft.

Thats all I have to say on the QB ranks, will try to give my insight (for what its worth) on the other positions later on. Just another statement; Pac-10 fans I will truly give you credit where credit is due, the Pac-10 games (pretty much all of them from the opening UW/USC game to even UW/Zona St or the Oregon/USC even with it being a bit of blowout) are wildly competitive and awesome to watch. DO NOT SLEEP ON VIRTUALLY ANY PLAYER THAT COMES OUT OF THE PAC-10 IN THE DRAFT. Period.

Again will try some insight at the other positions later after I crunch some more numbers to combo with the games I have watched thus far...
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Re: Mel Kiper's Big Board

Postby Kareighuis » Sat Nov 07, 2009 1:50 am

When I posted this, I looked all over for a link. I've finally found one, but it's an ESPN Insider thing- limited link.

Bazzy, that's a great post! I know very little about college football and greatly appreciate people such as yourself who provide such great in-depth info.
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Re: Mel Kiper's Big Board

Postby bazzy_51 » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:43 pm

Again I am no guru or anything, just really love watching college ball, and love the heart and sole that is put onto the field week in week out. Also really like the surprise guys that come from 'no name' colleges that break into the NFL and make a difference i.e. Greg Jennings from my one of my home state colleges Western Michigan. With that said I'm gonna try to take an in-depth look at the WR position.

Point blank if Golden Tate, WR-ND, decides to take the next step and go pro there will be no doubt in my mind he will/should be the #1 WR taken. I don't know how to express in words (outside of his stellar stats) the talent this guy delivers at the WR position. He has superb hands, amazing body control and just has a great knack for being around the ball-in every meaningful play. When I say meaningful play its not like a lot of WR that take plays off, Tate makes plays very meaningful every time he touches the ball. Not only is he an outstanding talent at the WR position catching the ball, but he is also a great blocking WR and a tremendous talent in the return game.

The stats don't differ from what I have just said either. This is a guy is on his way to back-to-back 1,000+ yard receiving years both with 50+ receptions, plus he should catch 10+ TDs in the last two years (9 this year up to date). His averages are also eye-popping, last year he recorded 18.6 yards per catch and this year still is carrying a staggering 16.6 yards per. To add to these impressive receiving stats would be his ability to run the ball. In his 3 years, to date, he has rushed the ball 27 times for 198 yards and 3 TDs. He has also returned kicks for 3 years averaging for a career 20.8 yards per and 2 years as the punt returner averaging 7.5 yards per return. I emphasize again tho, all stats aside Tate in my eyes has the most pure talent and knowledge at the WR position. He has amazing hands and if he can get a finger tip on the ball its as good as caught. Golden may be a little undersized at 5'11" 195, but he runs a 4.44-40 and has just amazing field presence.

Moving on from my rant about Tate would be Jordan Shipley next. A lot think that Dez Bryant should be, but there are huge question marks surrounding his integrity as a person after the allegations surrounding his alleged lying to NCAA investigators about his involvement with Deion Sanders. Not to mention even if Dez is telling the truth he really only has 1 full year of exceptional play, will this be enough to be a high draft pick? In my eyes not a chance.

On the other hand there is Shipley who has quite quietly put together a great career at Texas. He has a very strong chance of putting together his seconds straight 1,000-yard 10 TD season. Jordan hit a rough patch weeks 2 and 3 along with McCoy who struggled to stay on his feet and again in the Oklahoma game that was just a tough defensive game all around. Just like Tate, Shipley is the #1 look from his QB on their respective teams, but unlike Tate, Shipley is more of a possession receiver. He has serious deep threat ability, but is more the 'reliable' set of hands for Colt McCoy. Last year although he just clipped 1,000 total receiving yards he had 89 receptions and is well on the way to replicating that this year. With 3 games remaining he has caught 75 total balls. Not to mention just like Golden Tate, Shipley also is the primary guy in the return game for the Horns.

My best way to explain these two would be this: Golden Tate to me looks like a Steve Smith (CAR) with his great speed, explosive spurts, great hands, tough/hard nose not afraid to get or lay a hit but most of all his game change ability on any play. Jordan Shipley to me would be about the equivalent or maybe even a bit of a poor mans Wes Welker. These two are the safety valve for their respective QBs and are dependable, will make any catch and are great with the ball in their hands after the catch. To me Tate is more of the deep threat, more of the true route runner, a guy that can be depended on to go to to make a game changing play. Shipley is more suited for the slot position where he can be relied upon to come up with those dink-and-dunk type plays, but is the guy that can be depended on to get you those extra yards to get that first down or reach the goal line.

One other stat that is just mind blowing to me is that for both Golden Tate and Jordan Shipley with all the touches they have had at the WR spot, ZERO fumbles lost in their careers for both. Dez Bryant, if he wouldn't have been suspended for most of this year would have had some say in this discussion, but with the off the field issues going on I don't see him as anything more then a possible top 5 WR talent. One thing I will say about Bryant tho is he will be a steal for a team who decides to jump on him for his talent rather then passing because of some possible issues that may linger with him, not to mention the experience he lost by being suspended for all but 3 games this year and entering the NFL draft a year early.

Some other possible underrated WR who could be eye popping in the NFL would be Blair White, yes a bit of a homer pick from me here, but this kid is just all around football tough. This is a kid that was cut from the team and when coach Mark Dantonio came over from Cincy he sat outside of the coaches door until he showed up day 1 and begged for a chance to show what he can do. 2 years later he is Michigan State's go-to receiver and a guy who has won Sparty many games because of his game changing ability. He has great hands and outstanding athletic ability. He may not blaze you with his 40-speed but will blaze you with his knowledge and above average route running. He is on pace for 60+ receptions and 1000+ yards to go along side 10 TDs.

One last guy that I am actually really, really big on as a later 1st round-2nd round pick that could become a big time NFL WR is a kid by the name of Dezmon Briscoe from Kansas. He has very good size at 6'3" 200 pounds, he may not come out in this years draft, but if he finishes his season of strong I could very well see his name on the draft boards. The only true knocks on this kid are his slower 40 time and is apart of a spread offense at UK instead of the pro-style offense. To say the least tho, this kid has made the best of the situation he has been given. Last year he caught 92 balls for 1407 yards and 15 TDs, and is projecting for another 82 receptions, 1262 yards and 10 TDs again this year. Added to the fact that he is also the return specialist for the Jayhawks kick return team just adds to his value, although his career of 188 receptions, 2,744 yards and 27 TDs to date isn't too shabby either ;)

Overall although many say there this isn't a definite 'dominant group' of WRs there are some very surprising talented WR that are widely overlooked. Amongest the ones I have mentioned I don't think that the likes of: 6'3" 206 pound Brandon LaFell-LSU (whos big knock is his 4.5++ 40-time); Eric Decker-MIN (little slow on the 40 also and injury concerns, but catches anything in sight); Mardy Gilyard-CIN (only 6 foot even, but very shifty and outstanding after the catch); Damian Williams-USC if he comes out (even with the QB struggles has managed a good season and is a great return guy); Demaryius Thomas-GT this one may not be for this year but watch this name (great size at 6'3" 229 LBS, is the go to guy for GT, against Virginia 27 of GT's 40 completions went to Thomas).

Again this is just my insight on WR, what I have seen through stats and by watching quite a few of these players play not only in person but each Saturday. Tate if he enters this year will be the unanimous #1 WR and should be looking for bare minimum top 5-7 Pick. Like I said earlier I will try to shed my insight on all the positions I can as we go along. Next up will be RB followed by TE and then will shift to the defensive side of the ball!
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Re: Mel Kiper's Big Board

Postby da bears » Mon Nov 09, 2009 4:11 pm

nice post Bazzy. The Tate/S Smith comparison is solid they both play the game similarly and Tate is real tough to bring down. Strong guy and great after the catch. It really seems like a lot of wr's are going to drop in this years draft which should lead to some great value picks in the 2nd-4th rounds. No one seems to have really distanced themselves to be worth a top 15 pick with all the wtrong qb/secondary/d-line talent out there
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Re: Mel Kiper's Big Board

Postby Kareighuis » Tue Nov 10, 2009 1:08 am

And you say you don't know much, Bazzy... ;-D
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