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Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby ampant » Fri Nov 06, 2009 4:53 pm

Breaking News . . . he will be splitting carries with Kolby Smith.

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Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby SameSongNDance » Fri Nov 06, 2009 5:10 pm

I really like Westbrook this week going up against DAL. He is relatively fresh and will be just itching to prove he still deserves to get the majority of the carries out of that backfield. Not to mention he's still averaging a gaudy 4.8 YPC.


As for Addai. I would 100% start Charles over Addai this week, no questions asked. Firstly, Addai, although consistent this year, has been a below average RB. He is averaging 3.3 YPC and and if it weren't for Manning checking down to him several times a game his yardage totals would be laughable. The primary reason I would stay away from Addai this week is becuase of how good HOU's rush defense has been in the last 3 weeks. They have held Cedric Benson, Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch to 150 yards and a TD on 49 carries. They are the #1 rush defense in the last 3 weeks. Cushing is playing like a mad man.

Charles on the other hand is going up against the 26th ranked rush defense in the the last 3 weeks. His pass catching abilities are at least on even ground with Addai's so it's a complete wash in that respect. His upside on the other hand, dwarfs Addai's with his match up.



I was typing this when you posted the "Breaking News". I'd still start Charles over Addai. Kolby Smith is going to be very, very far from game speed after just coming off the PUP list. I personally don't see him to be a major threat.
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Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby ampant » Fri Nov 06, 2009 10:08 pm

You may be right (but probably not) in standard scoring leagues, but it's more likely that you are falling victim to a classic overthink. I'm in a PPR league, and Addai has the 11th highest point/game average in my league. Donald Brown was out in only one of those games, so most of that scoring was while he was splitting carries. The fact is, the Colts will see twice as many trips to the red zone as KC, and I'd rather have 60% of 9 red-zone trips, than 100% of four.

Frankly, for a guy who gets no love, Addai's got a higher ppg average than Steven Jackson, Mike Turner, Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, and Pierre Thomas (in my PPR league anyways).

He may not be your typical bruising back, but he has had only a single game where he hasn't broken double-digits, and he is still getting GL carries. He's at home again this week, and has either rushed, caught or thrown a TD in 6 out of 7 games he has played in.

No way I am gonna sit a guy like that for an unproven dude with a fumbling problem, with a lousy offense and a lousy defense, who is getting his first start on the road and splitting carries.

Say it with me . . . " the Kansas City Chiefs are the only team in the league that has not scored a rushing td"

And as for Jacksonville somehow being a nice matchup . . . sure, they got torched by Chris Johnson, but that's like getting your ass kicked by superman. Take away the Tennesee game, and the Jags become a very good rushing defense, averaging less than 100 yards/game, and surrendering only 3 tds in their first 6 games.

Somehow I don't think they are gonna get beat the same way by two weeks in a row, especially not at home, and especially not by the Chiefs.

It's a big gamble IMO to start a dude like over a proven starter who has been consistently performing. It makes no sense from a probability standpoint. Anything CAN happen, but this is twisted logic. Maybe if you are looking at Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis . . . but not a solid RB2 type like Addai or Westy.
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Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby SameSongNDance » Sat Nov 07, 2009 2:37 am

ampant wrote:You may be right (but probably not) in standard scoring leagues, but it's more likely that you are falling victim to a classic overthink. I'm in a PPR league, and Addai has the 11th highest point/game average in my league. Donald Brown was out in only one of those games, so most of that scoring was while he was splitting carries. The fact is, the Colts will see twice as many trips to the red zone as KC, and I'd rather have 60% of 9 red-zone trips, than 100% of four.

Frankly, for a guy who gets no love, Addai's got a higher ppg average than Steven Jackson, Mike Turner, Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, and Pierre Thomas (in my PPR league anyways).

He may not be your typical bruising back, but he has had only a single game where he hasn't broken double-digits, and he is still getting GL carries. He's at home again this week, and has either rushed, caught or thrown a TD in 6 out of 7 games he has played in.

No way I am gonna sit a guy like that for an unproven dude with a fumbling problem, with a lousy offense and a lousy defense, who is getting his first start on the road and splitting carries.

Say it with me . . . " the Kansas City Chiefs are the only team in the league that has not scored a rushing td"

And as for Jacksonville somehow being a nice matchup . . . sure, they got torched by Chris Johnson, but that's like getting your ass kicked by superman. Take away the Tennesee game, and the Jags become a very good rushing defense, averaging less than 100 yards/game, and surrendering only 3 tds in their first 6 games.

Somehow I don't think they are gonna get beat the same way by two weeks in a row, especially not at home, and especially not by the Chiefs.

It's a big gamble IMO to start a dude like over a proven starter who has been consistently performing. It makes no sense from a probability standpoint. Anything CAN happen, but this is twisted logic. Maybe if you are looking at Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis . . . but not a solid RB2 type like Addai or Westy.



Hey man I was just giving you my opinion, which never said to start him over Westy, just Addai. You also totally ignored the facts a stated about HOU. I just don't like the match up. When you pit a bad YPC against a top performing rush D, I usually view it as a bad match up. If a team held Benson, Gore and Lynch to an average of 16 carries for 50 yards (3.1 YPC) and .3 TD's in the last three games, and I'm told Addai is facing that same defense, I sit him IMO.
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Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby PuntinFool » Sat Nov 07, 2009 9:26 am

ampant wrote:You wouldn't start him over Addai or Westbrook would you?

Westbrook is a risky start until he puts up 15+ carries to prove he is back to somewhat normal. Since you don't know how much he'll be eased in, people should just start guys that one feels aren't injured and will get the ball often.
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Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby ampant » Sat Nov 07, 2009 12:04 pm

SameSongNDance wrote:Hey man I was just giving you my opinion, which never said to start him over Westy, just Addai. You also totally ignored the facts a stated about HOU.


I didn't ignore them. I explained that the Colts were going to see a lot more of the red-zone than the Chiefs. Then I pointed out that Addai has performed consistently all season. Not because he is awesome, but because his offense is awesome, and can get him opportunities to score. The Colts are going to move the ball, and Addai catches plenty of passes.

Go back and carefully re-read my post. My larger point was that it doesn't seem, given the facts and probabilities, that Jamaal Charles is going to have a good game. He's not a good start unless you had only low-end options (Jamal Lewis, one of the TB backs, etc).

To recap . . . The Chiefs are the only team in the NFL who has not scored a single TD yet from the RB position. They face a good defense on the road, don't have the ability to drive the field with regularity, and don't have the defense to keep games close enough to remain committed to the run. New starter + bad o-line + fumbling problems + splitting carries + bad matchup + on the road just doesn't add up to good odds for a big game.

Charles has only had 38 carries this year, INCLUDING the entire preseason, and has 2 fumbles in that time. Not saying he can't have a big game. Hell, I own him and hope he goes off. But it's not likely, and I don't plan on gambling until he shows me what he'll do for an entire game. The fundamentals of his situation are bad.

Nothing personal here man. I just think it's risky. Some of the best Fantasy Football advice I have ever received have been times when somebody has told me to just chill out and not do something. That's all I'm trying to do here . . . cut through some of the hopeful fantasy overthink with a little dose of reality.
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Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby Guru13 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 3:19 am

I don't put much into them saying he'll split with Kolby. Kolby's coming off of a pretty big injury, just got off the PUP list, and in his first action of the ENTIRE YEAR they expect him to carry half the load, not to mention the really tough yards? I don't see it frankly.
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Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby theimitator » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:17 am

FantasyFutballGuru13 wrote:I don't put much into them saying he'll split with Kolby. Kolby's coming off of a pretty big injury, just got off the PUP list, and in his first action of the ENTIRE YEAR they expect him to carry half the load, not to mention the really tough yards? I don't see it frankly.


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Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby ampant » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:32 am

So assuming the Kolby Smith news is a smokescreen, which it may not be . . . we still have new starter + bad o-line + fumbling problems + bad matchup + on the road just doesn't add up to good odds for a big game.
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Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby petedog9 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 10:56 am

If you are considering playing Charles you are probably in the same boat as me. I am starting Charles out of necessity. With ADP and SJAX both on a bye this week, my choice is down between Beanie Wells or Charles to run alongside Kevin Smith. This is a suck it up and hope for the best situation. You aren't gonna start an unproven guy over another solid proven option.
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