Start Jamaal Charles - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Football Talk

Start Jamaal Charles

Moderator: Football Moderators

Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby ampant » Sun Nov 08, 2009 11:11 am

petedog9 wrote:If you are considering playing Charles you are probably in the same boat as me. I am starting Charles out of necessity. With ADP and SJAX both on a bye this week, my choice is down between Beanie Wells or Charles to run alongside Kevin Smith. This is a suck it up and hope for the best situation. You aren't gonna start an unproven guy over another solid proven option.


Exactly. I'm not saying he's a horrible start . . . but I would temper my expectations for a huge game. He's a low end RB2 or a good flex. Hell, he may put up a nice game. We never know. I just started getting advice to start him over Addai, who is one of the better fantasy RBs in the league, and went back to do some analysis, and came back here to share what I found.

Good luck to all this week.
Image
It's time to put down the crack-pipe and step away from the keyboard.
ampant
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Eagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 4938
(Past Year: 16)
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: All stressed up with no place to go

Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby Guru13 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 12:40 pm

ampant wrote:So assuming the Kolby Smith news is a smokescreen, which it may not be . . . we still have new starter + bad o-line + fumbling problems + bad matchup + on the road just doesn't add up to good odds for a big game.

Bad matchup? You did watch CJ obliterate them last week right? Their D is rather weak.
Image
Guru13
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 9206
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby ampant » Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:26 pm

FantasyFutballGuru13 wrote:Bad matchup? You did watch CJ obliterate them last week right? Their D is rather weak.


Did you even bother reading my previous posts? I addressed that point in detail. Yes, CJ exploded on them. But that was one bad game. If you take away that game and look at how they had performed in the previous six games, they had only allowed three rushing TDs all season. Getting destroyed by CJ4.24 doesn't mean you are a bad team, it means that Johnson is a great player.

He rushed for 197 yards vs HOU, and everyone was saying the Texans were a good matchup all of a sudden. But HOU has playing pretty good run defense going on 4 games now. He hung 128 rushing yards on the Patriots, who are the 10th ranked defense vs fantasy RBs. Take away that game by Johnson and they'd be ranked 4th or 5th.

And back to the point at hand, I tried to warn you that this wasn't a good situation and not to start Charles unless desperate. . . so far he has 2 carries and 2 catches for 27 total yards, and Kolby Smith has 4 carries. I think the Chiefs have sniffed the redzone once so far this game.

Meanwhile . . . Addai has 52 total yards and a TD, and was targeted in the end-zone for another near-score.
Image
It's time to put down the crack-pipe and step away from the keyboard.
ampant
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Eagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 4938
(Past Year: 16)
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: All stressed up with no place to go

Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby ampant » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:09 pm

ampant wrote:You may be right (but probably not) in standard scoring leagues, but it's more likely that you are falling victim to a classic overthink. I'm in a PPR league, and Addai has the 11th highest point/game average in my league. Donald Brown was out in only one of those games, so most of that scoring was while he was splitting carries. The fact is, the Colts will see twice as many trips to the red zone as KC, and I'd rather have 60% of 9 red-zone trips, than 100% of four.

The Chiefs
Red-zone possessions = 2
Plays to Charles inside of red-zone = 0

The Colts
Red-Zone Possessions = 4
Plays to Addai in the Red Zone = 7

ampant wrote:Frankly, for a guy who gets no love, Addai's got a higher ppg average than Steven Jackson, Mike Turner, Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, and Pierre Thomas (in my PPR league anyways).

He may not be your typical bruising back, but he has had only a single game where he hasn't broken double-digits, and he is still getting GL carries. He's at home again this week, and has either rushed, caught or thrown a TD in 6 out of 7 games he has played in.

Make that 8 out of 9

ampant wrote:Say it with me . . . " the Kansas City Chiefs are the only team in the league that has not scored a rushing td"

still true

ampant wrote:And as for Jacksonville somehow being a nice matchup . . . sure, they got torched by Chris Johnson, but that's like getting your ass kicked by superman. Take away the Tennesee game, and the Jags become a very good rushing defense, averaging less than 100 yards/game, and surrendering only 3 tds in their first 6 games.
Even more true after today. The Chiefs managed a total of 60 team rushing yards.

ampant wrote:It's a big gamble IMO to start a dude like over a proven starter who has been consistently performing. It makes no sense from a probability standpoint. Anything CAN happen, but this is twisted logic. Maybe if you are looking at Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis . . . but not a solid RB2 type like Addai or Westy.


Charles got SIX carries and 3 receptions. Kolby Smith had four. The Chiefs have sucked all season long. LJ, getting 80-90% of the carries, only had one game where he broke double digit fantasy points. Anyways . . . I've been wrong before, but I was spot on here, and for all the reasons I listed.
Image
It's time to put down the crack-pipe and step away from the keyboard.
ampant
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Eagle EyeMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 4938
(Past Year: 16)
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Home Cafe: Football
Location: All stressed up with no place to go

Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby moochman » Mon Nov 09, 2009 11:12 am

ampant wrote:
ampant wrote:You may be right (but probably not) in standard scoring leagues, but it's more likely that you are falling victim to a classic overthink. I'm in a PPR league, and Addai has the 11th highest point/game average in my league. Donald Brown was out in only one of those games, so most of that scoring was while he was splitting carries. The fact is, the Colts will see twice as many trips to the red zone as KC, and I'd rather have 60% of 9 red-zone trips, than 100% of four.

The Chiefs
Red-zone possessions = 2
Plays to Charles inside of red-zone = 0

The Colts
Red-Zone Possessions = 4
Plays to Addai in the Red Zone = 7

ampant wrote:Frankly, for a guy who gets no love, Addai's got a higher ppg average than Steven Jackson, Mike Turner, Matt Forte, Ryan Grant, and Pierre Thomas (in my PPR league anyways).

He may not be your typical bruising back, but he has had only a single game where he hasn't broken double-digits, and he is still getting GL carries. He's at home again this week, and has either rushed, caught or thrown a TD in 6 out of 7 games he has played in.

Make that 8 out of 9

ampant wrote:Say it with me . . . " the Kansas City Chiefs are the only team in the league that has not scored a rushing td"

still true

ampant wrote:And as for Jacksonville somehow being a nice matchup . . . sure, they got torched by Chris Johnson, but that's like getting your ass kicked by superman. Take away the Tennesee game, and the Jags become a very good rushing defense, averaging less than 100 yards/game, and surrendering only 3 tds in their first 6 games.
Even more true after today. The Chiefs managed a total of 60 team rushing yards.

ampant wrote:It's a big gamble IMO to start a dude like over a proven starter who has been consistently performing. It makes no sense from a probability standpoint. Anything CAN happen, but this is twisted logic. Maybe if you are looking at Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis . . . but not a solid RB2 type like Addai or Westy.


Charles got SIX carries and 3 receptions. Kolby Smith had four. The Chiefs have sucked all season long. LJ, getting 80-90% of the carries, only had one game where he broke double digit fantasy points. Anyways . . . I've been wrong before, but I was spot on here, and for all the reasons I listed.



You were right, ampant. Cripes, anyone who works that hard to pat themselves on the back should be told when they're right.
What do you think Charles will do the rest of the way out? Love his Brownie match-up in the first playoff week, but most of his games look to be vs good run Ds, save Oakland.
Image


I think, therefore I am. I think fantasy, therefore I am unreal?
moochman
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterSurvival Of The Fittest WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16300
(Past Year: 80)
Joined: 20 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Living in the shame only a Lions fan knows

Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby petedog9 » Mon Nov 09, 2009 11:32 am

Man... Charles never really got a crack .. I dont think the Cheifs think he is a 25 touch guy. They rotated in guys I never heard of. Couple that with the fact that KC sucks on both sides of the ball... What an abortion of a game. I actually watched alot of that game. They are terrible in all phases. Until that changes, Charles aint gonna be on my roster... I had to start him this weekend out of necessity. Both my guys were on a bye.. (Sjax / ADP) .. Needless to say, I lost ..... *&$&$@#^#%@*&(^*%$%@#$
petedog9
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2964
Joined: 7 Nov 2002
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Sacramento CA

Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby Guru13 » Mon Nov 09, 2009 1:24 pm

blah. I quit.

However he was pretty good as far as his yards per touch goes. Perhaps if they gave him the ball a little more he would've been more successful. That being said I got 10.5 points out of him in my ppr league and got a win. I'll take it.
Image
Guru13
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle Eye
Posts: 9206
Joined: 29 Nov 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby SameSongNDance » Mon Nov 09, 2009 1:29 pm

I still ended up starting Brown over him but Charles only ended up with 5 less points in my PPR league. Honestly, It looked to me like they were just trying to give everyone a shot. With the release of LJ, I still like Charles as a decent Flex play for the rest of the year.
SameSongNDance
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Ranker
Posts: 1574
Joined: 27 Aug 2009
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby logan » Mon Nov 09, 2009 1:41 pm

Ppr wise Charles might have a few games here and there that are potentially flex worthy but in a non ppr league he won't put up a whole lot of worth while points. The line can't block and the D can't keep them in games against good opponents long eniugh for anyone in the run game to have much value outside of ppr league.
Image
logan
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 7273
(Past Year: 12)
Joined: 4 Jun 2004
Home Cafe: Football

Re: Start Jamaal Charles

Postby Ek » Mon Nov 09, 2009 3:13 pm

I mentioned it in another thread, but he's still got Oakland, San Diego, Buffalo, and Cleveland. I'm fine starting him as a flex in all four of those games. Apart from that, I'd only put him in the lineup if things get really desperate.
Ek
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar

Posts: 706
Joined: 11 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football
Location: West Chicago, IL

PreviousNext

Return to Football Talk

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 2:06 hours
(and 37 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact