Waiver Wire Defense Formulas - Week 10

[comm1680]

It was a tough week for defenses overall last week. The top 4 defenses in the rankings did quite well though, this includes Atlanta and Seattle, averaging just over 15 points. Green Bay was a flop which shows what a weak offensive line can do to a defense against a team coming off a bye.

For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.

This week's rankings:

Code: Select all

Team             Opponent          Score
Denver           Washington        -3117
Minnesota        Detroit           -2981
New Orleans      St. Louis         -2413
Baltimore        Cleveland         -2335
Atlanta          Carolina          -2251
Philadelphia     San Diego         -2114
Dallas           Green Bay         -1809
Cincinatti       Pittsburgh        -1785
Tennessee        Buffalo           -1636
Chicago          San Fran          -1581
Kansas City      Oakland           -1561
Arizona          Seattle           -1500
Seattle          Arizona           -1413
New York Jets    Jacksonville      -1406
Oakland          Kansas City       -1388
Miami            Tampa Bay         -1188
Pittsburgh       Cincinatti        -1166
San Diego        Philadelphia      -1060
Buffalo          Tennessee         -1046
San Fran         Chicago           -1017
Tampa Bay        Miami              -936
Carolina         Atlanta            -768
Green Bay        Dallas             -709
Washington       Denver             -698
Indianapolis     New England        -515
Cleveland        Baltimore           -65
New England      Indianapolis        -59
Jacksonville     New York Jets       -44
Detroit          Minnesota           124
St. Louis        New Orleans         575


Denver has a great matchup and if you picked up Atlanta last week, you can use them here as well. If Tenn. is available in your league, they have a fantastic matchup vs Buffalo at home.

Coming down to crunch time, I've decided to do 2 sets of advanced rankings. First, this week I'll release a week 11-14 ranking, then in 2 weeks I'll release a playoff ranking. I'd normally do that for weeks 14-16, but let me know if any of you play on week 17 and I can come up with something for that.

Week 11-14 rankings:

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Team                   Score
Philadelphia            -9881
Pittsburgh              -9549
Cincinatti              -9296
Minnesota               -7593
New Orleans             -7122
Dallas                  -6584
Denver                  -6580
Buffalo                 -6129
Green Bay               -6123
San Diego               -6087
New York Jets           -5638
Arizona                 -5541
Seattle                 -5511
New England             -5448
Indianapolis            -5360
Baltimore               -4736
Washington              -4470
San Fran                -4419
Atlanta                 -4381
Miami                   -4366
Chicago                 -4284
Carolina                -3849
New York Giants         -3664
Cleveland               -3053
Oakland                 -3052
Detroit                 -2944
Tampa Bay               -2490
Tennessee               -2352
Houston                 -2218
Jacksonville            -1710
St. Louis               -1491
Kansas City              -787


Cinci has fantastic matchups the next few weeks. If they're out there, grab them. Buffalo is a bit of a surprise, they have been playing pretty good pass def. though.

Week 9 thread

[kid sox]

Thanks for the rankings!

One comment, I am really surprised that Miami is ranked so low going against Tampa. I would've expected they would be a more favorable start than say Cincy, who could have trouble stopping a quality offense like Pitt.

[WaCougMBS]

Glad to see I have Denver for this week and Cincy for the next 3

[noatak77]

Thanks for the rankings!!!

My playoff weeks include week 17. Can you post the ranking for that week? Thanks.

[ocbc]

Thanks for all your work. I too, would like to see week 17.

[tctampa]

Thanks for the work...I have Dallas and NOS and will cherry pick versus the better match-up......DAL vs OAK on Thanksgiving!!!

[sparky5]

Miami Def is going to be great this week. I don't understand why they are not ranked. They have played a tough schedule. Josh Freeman will throw picks and Dolphins will take one or 2 to the house

[WaCougMBS]

Every team is ranked, you just have to scroll down...trust in the formula though, it's rarely off the mark

[sparky5]

I meant ranked Higher, this formula is not perfect.

[Chowdaheads]

Sparky: no statistical formula is perfect. It's just attempting to take some of the subjectivity out of the defensive decision-making by looking at past performance. Put it in that context, and you'll be all set, and you won't be asking why a specific team isn't ranked higher.

Comm: AWESOME stuff - thanks for doing this. I've leveraged your results all year. I'm happy to say that I'm ranked 1st in DST points on the season... way ahead of the chump who took Pittsburgh in the 7th round.