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Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

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Re: Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

Postby MiamiDave » Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:25 am

You guys need to look at the drive chart for the 4th quarter. Besides the Manning-Wayne miscommunication for the INT, the Colts had 2 other possessions before the final drive: both were 79 yards for TDs, both were done in 2 minutes, 5 seconds or less. The Patriots D wasn't stopping anyone. You watched the last drive, yes? Manning moved them forwrad with no difficulty whatsoever. The Patriots D was getting shredded the entire quarter. They had already been driven on twice in the quarter for the same distance and the same amount of time that the Colts would have had remaining had they punted. The Patriots were moving on the Colts at will nearly the entire game. Why not take the chance for 2 yards? Their strength is their offense and the Colts didn't do much to stop them until they went conservative late.

You can make the case that, stastically, you liked their chances of playing D better than getting the 2 yards, but even if you did (and I don't agree), then the odds are still very close to each other. The D still had a chance to win the game at the end and they didn't. They looked just as terrible as they had the whole quarter.

Too many people playing the result. Too many people refusing to acknowledge mathematical probabilities. If I were a fan of the team, I'd probably prefer they punt, but I wouldn't be upset with my coach for not doing so. Definitely were very real benefits to both options, and he knows his team better than we do so that sways my 50/50 preference into saying he made the right call.
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Re: Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

Postby Metroid » Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:42 am

Of course I watched the the last drive, no need to be condescending.

Yes the Pats D gave up some big plays in that final quarter, but they also made some big plays throughout the game. I'm not focusing on the result of the game just as I'm not focusing on one quarter to measure the Pats D. You have to have faith that your D can get a stop with a long field, asking them to do so on a short field is not really fair.

And I am acknowledging the mathematical probabilities. Like I said, the probability of losing that game by turning the ball over on your own 28 is much higher than if you punt and force the Colts to drive a long field.
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Re: Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

Postby MiamiDave » Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:48 am

The Patriots odds in that situation over recent years, according to what I heard this morning, was 78%. You can give any reason you want to explain why it was actually lower, but empirical evidence does not support your claims. Adding in another likelihood that the D can stop the Colts from advancing 28 yards or whatever it was, and their odds of winning increase even more, probably in the 85-95% range.

You also will have a hard time convincing anyone that a D that gave up two drives in the quarter of 80 yards in 2 minutes or less was going to all of a sudden stop the Colts in the exact same situation.

I'm not being condescending. Facts are facts. The numbers don't lie. Fans that support decision-making with gut feelings aren't football coaches. Math wins championships. I despise the Patriots and Bill Belichek but he has won 3 Super Bowls and his decision yesterday was only surprising because it was unconventional, but not because it was Bill Belichek. He's the Billy Beane of coaching (except his success includes winning championships).
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Re: Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

Postby Metroid » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:11 am

Their odds in recent years? I don't care what their odds have been in recent years in that position.

Anyway you are focusing on their likelyhood of converting as reason to go for it. What I'm saying is that even if they do have a high probability of converting, even if it is 78%, the 22% risk does not warrant them going for it in my opinion. You have a 6 point lead...you have to punt the ball there. The chances of the Colts driving 65 to 85 yards in 2 minutes or less and scoring a TD is much less than them scoring a TD from 28 yards out with 2:08.

You're right I'm not a football coach, I'm also not a fan of the Pats or the Colts..I could really care less about either team. I'll take the opinion of another Superbowl winning coach who I highly respect...Tony Dungy. Sure Belichick is unconventional, he absolutely is, it's the reason he has been as successful as he has. However that was not the right call, ask coaches across the league what they would do in that situation.
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Re: Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

Postby MiamiDave » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:16 am

So you won't look at their odds over the season and recent years, you won't look at the odds of Indy going 80 yards based on the events of the 4th quarter, you won't look at the odds of the Pats D stopping them from 28 yards out which you add to their odds of getting the first down as a secondary means of winning the game.

So your decision is... gut. Fair enough. I can't argue facts with your gut.

You're entitled to your opinion, regardless of where it comes from. Tony Dungy is, too. As are all the other 80% of people who are going to blast the decision today that want to use their gut, too.
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Re: Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

Postby Metroid » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:24 am

MiamiDave wrote:So you won't look at their odds over the season and recent years, you won't look at the odds of Indy going 80 yards based on the events of the 4th quarter, you won't look at the odds of the Pats D stopping them from 28 yards out which you add to their odds of getting the first down as a secondary means of winning the game.

So your decision is... gut. Fair enough. I can't argue facts with your gut.

You're entitled to your opinion, regardless of where it comes from. Tony Dungy is, too. As are all the other 80% of people who are going to blast the decision today that want to use their gut, too.

Hmm. So playing the probability that it is much harder to drive 65 to 85 yards in 2 minutes than it is to drive 28 yards in 2 minutes is going with your gut? But going for it on 4th 2 on your own 28 with 2 minutes left and a 6 point lead is not? OK. :-b
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Re: Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

Postby MiamiDave » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:31 am

Much harder? That's relative. The facts show that they did it twice in the quarter with ease. Didn't look hard at all to anyone who watched the game.
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Re: Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

Postby Metroid » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:39 am

MiamiDave wrote:Much harder? That's relative. The facts show that they did it twice in the quarter with ease. Didn't look hard at all to anyone who watched the game.

The Colts were also held out of the endzone for an entire quarter. But whatever dude. I'm done with you, you continue to be condescending and I'm over it. Of course I watched the game, implying that I didn't because I disagree with you is in fact condescending.
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Re: Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

Postby mattb47 » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:51 am

It doesn't matter how "easy" the Colts had moved the ball that quarter...you make them do it again and drive the ball 70 yards with a time limit on it and just 1 timeout remaining with no 2 minute warning. There are many things that can go wrong for an offense that has to go that far in that much time no matter how good their QB might be...this is not the Patriots of 2007-2008, they have not been unstoppable all season so it's not the same going for it then as it was going for it last night. You play the percentages and you kick it away rather than handing them the game on a platter by giving it to Peyton Manning inside the 30 with 2 minutes left.
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Re: Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

Postby MiamiDave » Mon Nov 16, 2009 11:56 am

Your argument is full of holes. You want me to acknowledge it's harder to move 60-80 yards than it is under 30. No problem, I'd be happy to agree. How much harder? Facts show they did it pretty easily twice in the same quarter.

Add to that, you continue to ignore that you not only have to measure the increased difficulty in moving 60-80 yards instead of 30, but you also have to add the probability that they get the first down into the equation.

Might you be correct, that even adding that in, it would have been a better choice to have punted? Maybe it is. However, for all you people saying this was such a dumb decision, you can't possibly justify that with any facts related to the game or the Pats' actual empirically recognized abilities on offense and defense this season or in recent years.

You want me to ask the coaches in the NFL what they thought of it? I'm sure a huge majority will say it was a bad call. You ask a statistician who can actually quantify the odds that they were going to win or lose? The majority will say it was an even possibility, at worst.

The situation is no different than measuring 4th and goal at the end of regulation, from the 1, down by 3, with 1 second on the game clock. You should always go for the TD. I don't care if the coach has won 10 Super Bowls, the odds will always favor going for it over going to OT and hoping to win off a coinflip or whatnot.
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