Week 10 GC: New England @ Indianapolis

[RunnaThaMills]

The simplest stat is that the Pats had 3 previous chances/downs to make a 1st down on their last drive, and they didn't - YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME!!!!

[A Fleshner Fantasy]

You're right I'm not a football coach, I'm also not a fan of the Pats or the Colts..I could really care less about either team. I'll take the opinion of another Superbowl winning coach who I highly respect...Tony Dungy. Sure Belichick is unconventional, he absolutely is, it's the reason he has been as successful as he has. However that was not the right call, ask coaches across the league what they would do in that situation.

This is what makes Belicheck such a great coach. Unlike every other coach in the league, he has the guts to go against conventional wisdom. Other coaches would automatically punt it, without giving it a second thought because conventional wisdom says to punt. However, Belicheck had the guts to do what he thought was right, ignoring the fact that he could be criticized for it. This is why Belicheck has 3 rings and Dungy has 1.

[mattb47]

You're right I'm not a football coach, I'm also not a fan of the Pats or the Colts..I could really care less about either team. I'll take the opinion of another Superbowl winning coach who I highly respect...Tony Dungy. Sure Belichick is unconventional, he absolutely is, it's the reason he has been as successful as he has. However that was not the right call, ask coaches across the league what they would do in that situation.

This is what makes Belicheck such a great coach. Unlike every other coach in the league, he has the guts to go against conventional wisdom. Other coaches would automatically punt it, without giving it a second thought because conventional wisdom says to punt. However, Belicheck had the guts to do what he thought was right, ignoring the fact that he could be criticized for it. This is why Belicheck has 3 rings and Dungy has 1.

Decisions like that don't make you a great coach...it just makes you a bold and gutsy one. That decision said more about his lack of trust in his defense than anything else and it was a TERRIBLE decision. They had 1 chance to stop the clock for the final 2 minutes...you take those odds even against Peyton Manning because while the chances may have been reasonably good to get 2 yards on one play on 4th down, if you DON'T get that, you pretty much hand them the game.

[Metroid]

Oh come on, that's not the reason he has 3 rings and Dungy only has one.

And for the record I never said it was a dumb decision, i said it was a bad call. I would never dismiss a bad call by a very successful coach as being dumb.

[WaCougMBS]

LOL, I just got in on this discussion and this guy is cracking me up! Are all 90 of his posts in this thread? You don't have to make that many posts to prove that you're wrong around these parts, usually just one will do

[MiamiDave]

Let's use some more facts here (god forbid anyone do that), for those of you saying the Pats had such a great chance at stopping them if they punted.

From ESPN:

1st and 10 at NE 29 (Shotgun) P.Manning pass short left to R.Wayne to NE 14 for 15 yards (J.Wilhite).
1st and 10 at NE 14 J.Addai up the middle to NE 1 for 13 yards (J.Wilhite).
1st and 1 at NE 1 J.Addai left tackle to NE 1 for no gain (V.Wilfork, R.Brace).
2nd and 1 at NE 1 P.Manning pass short left to R.Wayne for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Oh yeah, they had such a great chance at stopping them from going 60-80 yards.

Oh... besides adding in their estimated 78% chance of making the first down based on their successes this season, and their chance of stopping the Colts from the 29, let's also not forget to add in the chance that the punt returner may have brought the ball for a TD, or to the 30, or to the 50. That has to be included in the odds as well.

Keep bringing on the declarations of how wrong I am. I'll use facts. You can just keep talking about your gut feelings.

I'm a big boy, I can handle unsubstantiated, empirical-free disagreements. Bring it on.

[WaCougMBS]

Facts? LOL

I don't have enough interest in this game's aftermath to even get started in this decision, so I think I'll take a cue from Met and bow out of this one before I get started

[biju]

I like how probability has come into play here with the Patriots fans jumping in to defend the call.

The reason why it was a bad call: they lost.

But being a bad call doesn't necessarily mean it was the wrong one. I think what people are getting hung up on here is you can make the correct decision and it still be a bad call. Equate it to Texas Hold 'em where you know that pot odds dictate that you should call, even though you suspect you have a losing hand. The game says to play the numbers because you'll end up winning that way over the long term. It still doesn't make it right when you lose the hand.

Having said that, let's look at this mathematically:

- 2 point conversions tend to have a 45% success rate. (I contend that it's higher than this because all failed snaps/holds where the holder tries to pass the ball count as a failed two point conversion, but you have to play the numbers as given.)
- The Colts had 1 timeout left
- The ball was on the 28 or 29 (can't remember).
- Punt generally yield about 40 net yards (might be just a little bit lower)
- Manning had been having receiver miscommunications and had thrown 2 picks
- Manning would have had less than 2 minutes to get the TD.

Now what we need is to determine:
- Is the 45% success rate correct for the Patriots converting that 4th and 2? I would actually contend that it's higher for them, as that 78% conversion on 4th down is accurate (I looked it up).
- What's the % chance that the Colts convert a 29 yard field into a TD? (I'm guessing this is high, like 50%, but I'm guessing).
- What's the % chance that the Colts convert a 69 yard field into a TD? (I'm guessing this is much lower, like 20% but I'm guessing).
- What's the % chance Manning throws an INT or that another player fumbles? (I'm guessing this is low, like 3%)
- What's the % chance the Colts run the punt back for a TD? (I'm guessing this is also low and possibly countered by the effect that now you have to account for Brady's chances to drive down the field to get only a field goal.)

Remember that the Patriots get to work the sidelines and deep, keeping the Colts in the middle of the field, which plays into the percentages as well.

So the equation for a Patriots win needs to be something like:
- 0.45 + 0.55 x (1 - 0.50) = 0.725 for the conversion on 4th and 2. This doesn't include the minuscule chance that a turnover occurs when the Colts have the ball.
- Compare the above number to the 20% chance (plus the minute chance of a turnover again)

In other words, Belichick's percentages were on the wrong side (again, assuming my guestimations--use better numbers if you can find them) and he should have punted.

My favorite part about this is the Patriots lose but I still get Moss' great production.

[Sex Panther]

It was a bad call to go for it on 4th & 2, from YOUR OWN 28.

What is lost in this is, NE should have pulled the anti Westbrook/MJD - they should have let Addai score on his first carry - the one for 13 right up the gut - that would have given them a punchers chance (about 30 seconds left & no answer for Moss all game).

Some will say "why would you let them score?", IMO answer is simple - they went for it on 4th and 2 from their own 28 - they didn't think their defense could stop the Colts at that point, so why not try and give your offense 3 or 4 plays rther than 1?

[MiamiDave]

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11 ... colts.html

Hey, what do you know...

You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

Sounds like what I said in my first one or two posts here. Maybe a wash, at worst.

This guy actually uses league average stats to say it was a good idea, much less the increased Pats chance of first down conversion or the increased Colts chance of scoring from anywhere on the field over the average.

Keep up the gut-feeling arguments, guys.