Matchups vs. Defense Week 11

[prince_45243]

This weekly matchup ranking ranks each defense according to passing and rushing based on fantasy points. NFL rankings are based solely on yards per game. If a defense gives up fewer passing yards per game, they are considered a better passing defense. But in FF leagues, touchdowns and interceptions are weighted. Please remember that this accounts only for passing and rushing defense strength. Running backs that also receive a lot or qbs that run a lot may see different outcomes. The score given is the average number of points that opposing passers or rushers have against them. Also, if your RB's team splits carries a lot, then you have to think about how they are utilized and divide the points allowed by that.

For passing: 1 point for 25 yards, 6 points per TD, -2 per interception
For rushing: 1 point for 10 yards, 6 points per TD, -2 per fumble lost.

Toughness of schedule is determined by fantasy passing or rushing output of the teams they have faced off with this season. The same points are allotted above and then each team is ranked based on the average number of points the offenses they are seeing have put out. The higher the number the easier the schedule has been.

Each is listed as FF rank) Team (NFL Rank) Score (Toughness)
For example, the Bills are the number 1 ranked passing fantasy defense. They are ranked number 9 based on passing yards per game by the NFL but opposing qbs on AVERAGE are only having 9.1 points per game against them. They have allowed only 7 passing TDs in 8 games and have offset that with 16 picks. They've had the 29th hardest or the 3rd easiest schedule when it comes to the passing offensive power they've seen and so their ranking may be artificially high as a reflection of this.

PASSING

1 ) BUF ( 9 ) 9.1 ( 29 )
2 ) NYJ ( 3 ) 9.2 ( 27 )
3 ) NO ( 19 ) 10.7 ( 32 )
4 ) IND ( 16 ) 11.0 ( 15 )
5 ) WAS ( 1 ) 11.4 ( 26 )
6 ) DEN ( 5 ) 11.9 ( 17 )
7 ) CAR ( 4 ) 12.3 ( 8 )
8 ) OAK ( 14 ) 12.5 ( 4 )
9 ) PIT ( 12 ) 12.5 ( 24 )
10 ) BAL ( 13 ) 13.0 ( 20 )
11 ) CIN ( 21 ) 13.5 ( 11 )
12 ) SF ( 29 ) 13.5 ( 2 )
13 ) HOU ( 17 ) 13.8 ( 28 )
14 ) PHI ( 10 ) 14.2 ( 21 )
15 ) NE ( 7 ) 14.5 ( 25 )
16 ) CLE ( 19 ) 14.9 ( 6 )
17 ) NYG ( 2 ) 14.9 ( 13 )
18 ) SD ( 11 ) 15.0 ( 31 )
19 ) MIA ( 27 ) 15.1 ( 5 )
20 ) GB ( 6 ) 16.0 ( 22 )
21 ) STL ( 25 ) 16.3 ( 3 )
22 ) CHI ( 8 ) 16.5 ( 18 )
23 ) ATL ( 28 ) 16.7 ( 19 )
24 ) SEA ( 22 ) 16.9 ( 10 )
25 ) DAL ( 18 ) 17.1 ( 14 )
26 ) MIN ( 23 ) 17.4 ( 30 )
27 ) KC ( 24 ) 17.6 ( 23 )
28 ) ARI ( 30 ) 17.9 ( 7 )
29 ) TB ( 15 ) 18.5 ( 12 )
30 ) JAX ( 26 ) 18.7 ( 16 )
31 ) DET ( 32 ) 22.9 ( 1 )
32 ) TEN ( 31 ) 23.7 ( 9 )

Some changes from last week's post. Tom Brady exposed the wkness of the IND defense and the injuries to their secondary have hurt them. They are now ranked 16th by the NFL and 4th by me and their toughness ranking has definitely changed from 22nd toughest to 15th toughest. Oakland continues to hold a top 10 position after holding Cassel down and now have had the 4th toughest schedule all season. Slowly creeping higher is Cincy who is allowing only 13.5 ppg to opposing passers and have had the 11th toughest passing schedule this year. Similarly, SF continues to climb higher, now ranked 12th and they've faced the 2nd toughest passing schedule this year. Both of those teams may be ranked a little too low as their yeilding only a few more points per game than the top 10 but have faced much tougher schedules.

On the bottom tier, DET has officially the toughest passing opponent schedule (as they did last week). I typically think of MIN as a terrific defense but for several weeks now, they're in the bottom 10 vs. the pass and now having faced DET, they have the 3rd easiest passing schedule of the league. I'd start QBs agains them pretty readily now.

RUSHING


1 ) PIT ( 1 ) 7.8 ( 22 )
2 ) MIN ( 6 ) 9.7 ( 26 )
3 ) GB ( 4 ) 9.8 ( 27 )
4 ) CIN ( 2 ) 10.1 ( 28 )
5 ) NE ( 17 ) 11.4 ( 6 )
6 ) DEN ( 12 ) 11.9 ( 23 )
7 ) DAL ( 10 ) 12.1 ( 20 )
8 ) BAL ( 5 ) 12.5 ( 32 )
9 ) ARI ( 8 ) 13.0 ( 19 )
10 ) SF ( 3 ) 13.2 ( 21 )
11 ) PHI ( 9 ) 13.5 ( 16 )
12 ) JAX ( 22 ) 14.1 ( 17 )
13 ) WAS ( 24 ) 14.3 ( 24 )
14 ) NYJ ( 18 ) 14.7 ( 1 )
15 ) IND ( 14 ) 14.9 ( 11 )
16 ) SEA ( 11 ) 14.9 ( 25 )
17 ) MIA ( 7 ) 15.3 ( 5 )
18 ) TEN ( 16 ) 15.4 ( 8 )
19 ) SD ( 23 ) 15.4 ( 18 )
20 ) DET ( 19 ) 15.7 ( 14 )
21 ) CHI ( 21 ) 15.8 ( 29 )
22 ) ATL ( 26 ) 16.6 ( 3 )
23 ) NYG ( 13 ) 17.5 ( 30 )
24 ) CAR ( 25 ) 17.9 ( 12 )
25 ) HOU ( 14 ) 18.4 ( 9 )
26 ) NO ( 20 ) 18.9 ( 4 )
27 ) KC ( 27 ) 19.2 ( 13 )
28 ) STL ( 28 ) 22.5 ( 10 )
29 ) TB ( 31 ) 22.5 ( 7 )
30 ) OAK ( 29 ) 23.1 ( 31 )
31 ) CLE ( 30 ) 24.2 ( 15 )
32 ) BUF ( 32 ) 25.7 ( 2 )

SF broke into the top 10 against the rush this week having held the Chicago rushers to less than 50 yards and no score. PHI dropped out of the top 10 having yielded 120 yards and 2 scores. NE allowed Addai a rushing score and gave up 91 yards but that's still only the 3rd rushing TD all year.In the bottom 10, NYG and CAR switched positions (NYG were on bye) but it's a meaningless change. Otherwise the bottom 10 rushing offenses stayed the same. Again, BUF is tough to judge. They are dead last but they've also had teh toughest schedule of teh year. But OAK is really just awful. They're ranked 30th and have had the second easiest schedule with regards to rushing offense.

Some fast facts:
PASSING: THe NYJ have allowed a league low 6 passing TDs in 9 games. That's less than one passing TD per game. Now, Tom Brady is a marquee qb worth starting against anyone, of course. And, as I've shown, they've had a relatively light schedule this year. Both Buffalo and now Indy have given up 7 TDs this year but worth noting that for IND, 3 of those were given up to Brady. The Brady effect goes on with TEN who have given up 23 passing TDs in 9 games (well over 2 TD per game) including two passing TDs vs. the hapless Bills. Of course, Tom Brady did throw for 6 of those in one game but still, they really are awful against the pass. Closest behind them are DET at 20 and TB giving up 19 passing TDs. The Giants, ranked number 2 against the pass, have given up 15 passing TDs this year. Although the Redskins rank highly on both accounts, they have had only 5 INTs all year. Only the Browns at 4 have fewer picks. But the NO Saints have a monster 17 picks (nearly 2 per game!). The Bills have 16 picks and the Eagles have 15.

The MIN Vikings have allowed only 2 rushing TDs this year. The same goes for PIT which is better known. But did you know the GB packers have only yielded 3 rushing TDs this year? Same as the patriots. The OAK raiders have yielded 14 rushing TDs in 9 games, same as the Buffalo Bills. The Browns and Rams have also given up 13 rushing TDs this year. But, woah, the NYG have also yielded 12 rushing TDs in 9 games! That's a bit of a surprise for me.

Week 10 thread

[prince_45243]

WAIVER WIRE PICKUPS - NEXT 3 WEEKS OUTLOOK

The following uses the data generated above to rank the ease of schedule for weeks 10-12 for passing and rushing. Each team is taken and their opponents defensive performance for passing or rushing is determined and then summed over the three week period and then ranked from most points allowed to fewest points allowed. Byes are given zero points. For example, ARI will face, STL, TEN and MIN which yield an average of 16.3, 23.7 and 17.4 ppg to opposing passers which gives them the most favorable outlook with respect to opposition to passing in the next three weeks. That doesn't, of course, take into account the quality of the passer, just the ease of schedule.

PASSING
1) ARI
2) HOU
3) SF
4) CLE
5) MIN
6) STL
7) IND
8) CIN
9) GB
10) CHI
11) ATL
12) DEN
13) SEA
14) NYG
15) PHI
16) SD
17) DET
18) NO
19) OAK
20) PIT
21) BUF
22) CAR
23) TEN
24) WAS
25) TB
26) BAL
27) KC
28) DAL
29) JAC
30) MIA
31) NYJ
32) NE

Kurt Warner looks to have a fairly easy schedule coming up with STL, TEN and MIN ranked 21, 32 and 26th and he's a great QB to have in that situation. I'm not a big Schaub fan but he does have a nice schedule with TEN, IND and JAC ranked 32, 4 and 30 against the pass. Obviously IND will be a struggle but he does seem to have good games against IND too. In short, I think he's worth a go and maybe Walter and Slaton will receive more yards through that stretch too. I think interesting on this list is STL who have ARI, SEA and CHI ranked 28, 24 and 22nd by me. Bulger's not a bad QB. Not a great one, but... well... SJax is showing signs of life again. Bulger had 298 yards and 2TD vs. NO ranked 3rd against the pass by me. Still he's also done terribly vs. DET so it's a big gamble but he has a highly favorable schedule coming up.

RUSHING:

1) CIN
2) JAC
3) SD
4) MIA
5) NYJ
6) DAL
7) PIT
8) ATL
9) TB
10) CAR
11) DEN
12) NE
13) NO
14) ARI
15) PHI
16) IND
17) TEN
18) CHI
19) SEA
20) WAS
21) HOU
22) BUF
23) DET
24) MIN
25) STL
26) GB
27) CLE
28) NYG
29) SF
30) KC
31) BAL
32) OAK

Well, CIN made it past PIT and now... they get OAK, CLE and DET ranked 30, 31 and 20 vs. the run. If Cedric Benson is good to go he should get some decent production. If not...Bernard Scott? Depends how desperate you get but 3 games is a goodly run of nice matchups. A lot of great RBs have easy schedules coming up from LT, TJones, MBIII, Mendenhall, Turner and MJD. A bit of a long shot is the Cadillac having NO, ATL and CAR ranked 26th, 22 and 24th vs. the run. He's had a tough schedule this year including MIA, NE, GB, PHI, WAS. Of course, he's a gamble but worth looking into. J. Charles finally shut me up with a score and 100 yard game last week. But he's got a tough road ahead with PIT, SD AND DEN ranked 1, 19 and 6 against the rush. Again, he might have a nice playoff run but not sure he's worht picking up just yet.

Couldn't help but notice Beanie Wells great runs this last weekend. And he has STL, TEN and MIN ahead ranked 28, 18 and 2nd. While he may struggle with TEN and MIN because Warner can just chuck those babies in, I think he's worth a start vs. STL.

[prince_45243]

PLAYOFF OUTLOOK
Applying the same strategy, I'm giving a preliminary look at weeks 14, 15 and 16 which are traditional playoff weeks for most teams. If you're pretty sure you're making the playoff, this may help you decide on fringe players. The lists are generated to show 'easiest' as a higher ranking. Thus, MIA has the easiest passing playoff schedule facing JAC, TEN and HOU through the playoffs. JAC and TEN are ranked 30th and 32nd and Hou is ranked 13th. Just hard to know if Miami will ever become a passing conscious team.

PASSING:
1) MIA
2) STL
3) SF
4) SD
5) ARI
6) NO
7) BAL
8) CIN
9) BUF
10) HOU
11) SEA
12) CAR
13) TEN
14) CHI
15) NYJ
16) GB
17) WAS
18) DET
19) PIT
20) CLE
21) MIN
22) JAC
23) PHI
24) NE
25) IND
26) OAK
27) NYG
28) DEN
29) KC
30) DAL
31) TB
32) ATL

From last week, HOU and BUF moved into the top 10 easiest playoff outlooks while SEA and CHI fell out of the top 10. In the bottom 10, NE moved into having one of the toughest 10 passing schedules while JAC just fell out of the worst 10 schedules to have. Otherwise, there wasn't much change in this from last week's post. Even more worrisome now are all things Romo related given his falling apart vs. GB. I think defenses are keying in on Austin more and that's ruined that little party. Which can compound problems for those with high hopes for Witten and Williams this year. DAL will face SD, NO and WAS ranked 2, 7 and 17 vs the pass. Eli, SSmith and Mario may have more problems than worth it in the playoffs vs. PHI, WAS and CAR ranked 12th, 5th and 8th vs. the pass.

RUSHING
1) KC
2) ATL
3) NE
4) NYJ
5) TEN
6) WAS
7) HOU
8) DEN
9) ARI
10) NO
11) SEA
12) OAK
13) CLE
14) DAL
15) TB
16) MIA
17) BUF
18) STL
19) PIT
20) NYG
21) CIN
22) MIN
23) PHI
24) SF
25) JAC
26) IND
27) BAL
28) DET
29) CAR
30) GB
31) SD
32) CHI

NO moved into the top 10 easiest rushing schedules through the playoffs and SEA dropped out of it. On the worst 10 rushing schedules there was some switching of positions but the same worst 10 were present. Still not sure I'm comfortable with J. Charles but his playoff schedule of BUF, CLE, CIN ranked 32, 31 and 4th. Obviously CIN would be trouble but the two easiest rushing defenses for Charles in teh first two weeks is really interesting to me. Those teams give up on AVERAGE, 25.7 and 24.2 ppg to opposing rbs. Those would be terrific days for my studs. If you're hurting at RB, say with a DET K. Smith about to face BAL, ARI and SF ranked 8, 9 and 10 vs. the rush, I think Charles is worth along hard look. I'm a big Forte fan, but dayum! He's got GB, BAL and MIN in the playoff weeks ranked 3, 8 and 2nd against the run in my book which gives him the worst playoff outlook in thel eague. Both GB and MIN are yielding an average of only 9.7 and 9.8 ppg. Once more, I think C. Johnson has the right mix of talent and outlook to dominate most leagues this year.

WAS is interesting to me. I'm not sure how much longer Clinton will be out but they have OAK, NYG and DAL ranked 30, 23 and 7 vs. the rush. I'm sorta interested in those first two games. But hard to know if Portis or Betts will be running at that time.

In any case, lots to think about for the weeks to come. Good luck!