Interesting week for defense. Top 10 teams in the formula scored an average of 8.4 pts. But you had duds in there from Denver, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Philly. This has been very rare this year as any team that has -2000 score or better has finished over 10 pts in 19 of 26 matchups, prior to this week. I can blame it on injury or desperation for some teams, but either way, things look good for this week and hopefully you took my advice and grabbed Cincinatti.
For those who are new to the forum, the formula takes the yards, points, sacks, turnovers (int+fum recovered) per game for each defense and offense. Then, matches them up with some weighting to get those final rankings. Lower scores mean a more positive matchup for that defense. It does not take bye weeks, homefield advantage, or personnel changes into account.
Team Opponent Score Cincinatti Oakland -2955 Philadelphia Chicago -2360 Pittsburgh Kansas City -2261 Dallas Washington -2143 Minnesota Seattle -2141 Green Bay San Fran -2050 New Orleans Tampa Bay -1965 Detroit Cleveland -1878 Arizona St. Louis -1811 Cleveland Detroit -1663 San Fran Green Bay -1584 Miami Carolina -1519 Denver San Diego -1435 Buffalo Jacksonville -1104 Indianapolis Baltimore -1098 New England New York Jets -1097 Carolina Miami -1096 Washington Dallas -1083 Jacksonville Buffalo -928 San Diego Denver -836 New York Giants Atlanta -816 Chicago Philadelphia -767 Atlanta New York Giants -661 Kansas City Pittsburgh -638 Tennessee Houston -546 Houston Tennessee -400 Seattle Minnesota -367 Oakland Cincinatti -298 St. Louis Arizona -113 New York Jets New England -16 Baltimore Indianapolis 7 Tampa Bay New Orleans 151
The top 7 matchups look fantastic. I wouldn't hesitate to use any of those teams. Detroit, Cleveland, and San Fran look like good sleepers against teams that will give up turnovers. San Fran could do especially well, considering how much emotion GB put into the Dallas game. I'd probably go with them over the other 2 if I had the choice.
And here's updated rankings for the next 4 weeks (11-14):
Team Score Cincinatti -9506 Pittsburgh -9100 Philadelphia -8595 Minnesota -7355 Green Bay -7298 New Orleans -6326 San Diego -6285 Dallas -6275 Denver -5797 Baltimore -5743 Arizona -5403 Washington -5046 New York Jets -5042 Buffalo -4831 Indianapolis -4764 San Fran -4686 New England -4421 Miami -4285 Chicago -4165 Seattle -4086 New York Giants -4012 Oakland -3821 Carolina -3300 Atlanta -3289 Cleveland -3125 Detroit -2892 Tennessee -2216 Houston -2035 Tampa Bay -1769 Jacksonville -1724 Kansas City -1547 St. Louis -1140
Cinci looks fantastic for the next few weeks. They are for real. If you want a defense for the rest of the year, Green Bay is worth looking at (if they got dropped) although I still think that offensive line tends to put them in bad spots, which can make them inconsistent. Arizona is also a good stash for the playoffs. San Diego and Dallas may be available as well. I'd pick either of up if you miss out on Cinci or GB.
I've been picking up Cincy anywhere where they've been available. 3 tasty matchups in a row
And I think SD is ranked too low for this week... looks like Simms will be at QB and Denver is unraveling after their 6-0 start... SD def could pay huge dividends.
I will more than likely play the Eagles defense against the Bears but Detroit sure is looking like a pretty good play this week against the Browns. I know the Lions are not a good defense but I think any team playing the Browns will have a good defensive day. The Philly D going against the Bears worries me a bit.. The Bears and Cutler are capable of putting things together on offense and putting up some points. You would think Cutler will be a little safer with his passes after all the int's he's thrown. Maybe less inclined to make the tough throws into double and triple coverage. I guess Im looking for some reassurance on my Philly defense after they have scored -8, 6, & 6 points the last 3 weeks in my league.
Yeahh thanks again comm...another helpful analysis
Sticky Fingers wrote:I will more than likely play the Eagles defense against the Bears but Detroit sure is looking like a pretty good play this week against the Browns. I know the Lions are not a good defense but I think any team playing the Browns will have a good defensive day. The Philly D going against the Bears worries me a bit.. The Bears and Cutler are capable of putting things together on offense and putting up some points. You would think Cutler will be a little safer with his passes after all the int's he's thrown. Maybe less inclined to make the tough throws into double and triple coverage. I guess Im looking for some reassurance on my Philly defense after they have scored -8, 6, & 6 points the last 3 weeks in my league.
I was actually thinking the same thing as Sticky here....I've got Philly and I'm starting Cutler which I hate doing. Cutler always seems to play well after having a bad game and especially when he's at home. Bah...I'm not going to overthink this one. I'll plug Philly in...if Cutler throws 5 int's again at least I'll get points this time.
Honestly, "60 Minutes" should do an investigation on how Jake Delhomme got a contract extension. Bernie Madoff has a right to be pissed. He goes to jail for fraud while Delhomme walks the street a free man.
very helpful, although Im having an issue between Carolina DEF and NYG DEF for week 11.
CAR is playing MIA in which Henne doesnt have anyone to throw to, and ronnie brown is out for the season which means more throwing.
or I can go with
NYG playing ATL in which Ryan is struggling and Turner is hurt. Seems like these 2 should be upgraded, no?
your thoughts on the calculations for these teams would be highly appreciated (and if you could pick which one youd go with, that would be great as well)
Love the results but have a hard choice this week.
Have Cincy and Philly D. Have to pick between your 1 and 2 on this list.
My league gives 1 pt per INT, FR, & Sack 6pts for shutout 3pts for <250 total yards 6 pts for DTD and Special Teams
With the change in OAK QB and Russell getting put on the bench do you think Bruce would be a little more conservative and less likely to give up the ball? As you can see only points for a shutout and under 250 yards no partial points for low scoring teams. Would that change your opinion on who to play this week.
Sitting at number 2 and looking good for the playoffs but need another win or two to clinch.
Great job as usual man! We've been pimping your formula on the Cafe's 4th and Goal podcast, so hopefully that will help with the exposure (amongst Cafe-goers at least) in the coming weeks!
I'm glad I got the Bengals as a throw-in in a trade, because I can put that part of my lineup on auto-pilot for the next three weeks and at least 4 of the last 6
I'm definitely in the playoffs and I have been playing the waiver wire most of the year for defenses. Other teams are starting to horde Ds, so pickins' are pretty slim.
I'm looking to the playoffs (wks 14-16). I currently have Atl and Mia. I could likely trade for Cin, Dal, Phi, or Balt. Do you have an analysis for wks 14-16. Since I'm already in the playoffs, wks 12 and 13 are not important.
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by comm1680 on Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:04 pm 
